Wednesday, April 30, 2008

"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday's Picks
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $25.64

Karen Finerman prefers Citigroup (C) $25.27

Pete Najarian recommends Chesapeake (CHK) $51.7

Jeff Macke thinks Starbucks (SBUX) $16.23 is a sell.

Wednesday's Results
Karen Finerman recommends Altria (MO) $20.24 on the dip. Close $20 LOSS

Pete Najarian prefers Biogen (BIIB) $61.33 also on the dip.Close $60.69 LOSS

For the second day in a row Guy Adami recommends shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.65 Close $60.64 LOSS

Jeff Macke thinks Citigroup (C) $26.32 is a sell. Close $25.28 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 33-24-1
Tim Seymore= 16-12
Guy Adami= 32-29
Pete Najarian= 34-25
Karen Finerman= 25-28-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Lampert Adds an Additional 1 million AutoNation Shares

Edie Lampert has once again increased his stake in autoNation (AN)

He now owns 67.3 million shares after purchasing an additional 1.1 million shares on 4/29.

He now owns 37.6% of the shares

I recently wrote about the company here.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Fed Cuts One Last Time

The statement from Bernanke & co. was short and sweet.
Here it is:

"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.

Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco."

This is a change from the last statement when it "the outlook for economic activity has weakened further". This was says "remains weak". The translation is that as far as economic activity is concerned, there has not been further weakening since the last meeting.

Regarding inflation, the prior meeting said "uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased" and today's says it is "high".

Those are subtle but important changes as it signals the predominant risk now is tilting towards increasing inflation rather than decreasing growth.

Barring a shock to the system, we have seen to last rate cut for the foreseeable future.


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US GDP Grew in Q1: Were is that Recession?

Far from a recession, the economy is still growing...

The U.S. Commerce Department said the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.6% in the first three months of the year, in an initial estimate of gross domestic product for the quarter. The growth matches that of 2007's final period.

Housing hit the economy. Residential fixed investment dropped by 26.7%, reducing overall GDP by 1.23 percentage points. In short, GDP growth absent housing as an acceptable 1.8%.

Now, clearly financials like Citigroup (C), Wachovia (WB), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Bank of America (BAC) and their investors have suffered. If you are an investor in housing related stocks like Centex (CTX), USG (USG) and DR Horton (DRH) the last thing you want to hear is that the economy is not in recession. In your corner of the world it clearly is. However, while the economy as a whole is growing at a far from acceptable rate, it is STILL GROWING.

Even Berkshire's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett jumped on the recession call yesterday saying we were already in one. I have to ask Warren on this one. He always says he does not invest on "macro forecasts" because they are never accurate. He also replies when asked about what is going to happen in the future "I have no idea". My question then is, "why then is he making macro predictions and forecasts now?" To be honest, Warren is the greatest investor ever but he is on TV just way too much lately. What he said meant more when we heard from him occasionally, rather than weekly.

I feel bad for those making the treck out to Omaha this weekend for the annual meeting. What could they possibly hear from him he has not said at least 5 times in the scores of interviews he has done the past two months? I have done it in the past and it is a great time. But, we were hearing new stuff back then, not the rehash this years attendees will get..

Anyway, this quarters growth illustrates the strength of the economy. To take the massive hits from both housing and the credit markets and to be still expanding is quite impressive.

These numbers now push the odds of having an actual recession even lower than they were a month ago. In order to actually have a recession now we need the spring and summer numbers to contract. The need for this from the recession camp is facing strong headwinds as last years rate cuts begin to hit the system and $150 billion in stimulus checks start showing up on consumers doorsteps.

Should Bernake & Co. take steps today the strengthen the dollar, we can add lower energy and food prices to the list. Does this mean we jump to 2% to 3% growth this summer? No. It does mean we ought not see a negative number and given what has happened the last 12 months, that is just fine.

People were fond of saying Alan Greenspan engineered a "soft landing" when he was the head of the Fed. When this is all over, Bernanke ought to be credited with engineering a "fly by" in far more difficult circumstances.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long C,WB ,None

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Wednesday's Links

Bio-fuels, Whitman, Amen Joe Ponzio, Wendy's and Starbucks

- It is only a matter of time before a stunning breakthrough happens..

- Gotta love this guy

- The truest thing ever written

- Interesting when looking at the past one gets lessons for the future

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Starbucks Ignores Schultz

"We will return to what made us great and focus on coffee," Howard Schultz. New says different Howard and Starbucks (SBUX) shareholders may just benefit...

This summer, Starbucks will add fresh fruit and whey powder smoothie drinks in the U.S.. They say they're the first stage of a broader push into healthier drinks and food offerings. "It's also what we believe to be a huge differentiator," said Rob Grady, Starbucks' vice president, beverage. "You cannot get [them] from any fast-food establishment." The flavors Starbucks has developed include chocolate banana and orange mango.

OK. Let's just ignore that for the last year Starbucks has been saying McDonalds (MCD) Dunkin Donuts and their ilk were "not the competition". Clearly this statement is an admission they are. We also need to ignore that I can get a smoothie from Dunkin Donuts. Let's also ignore the runs polar opposite to what CEO Howard Schultz has been running around saying since he re-assumed the CEO post that it was going to be "all about the coffee". Now that those nagging details are out of the way, it is a good move. But, it is only a good move if the smoothies are actually priced reasonably. If they run $4 to $5 a glass, nice idea, lousy execution.

A reasonable smoothie will bring people in the door. A high priced one will be yet another in a long list of fiascos by the company in the past year and a half.

Listening to Schultz describe the drinks as "visually beautiful," one can only be wary of its pricing. Howard, if I am getting a smoothie to go out in the 90 degree summer heat, its "visual beauty" will last 3 to 4 minutes. What will matter far more when it comes to the purchasing decision will be the price because if you think the "competition" will not come up with something to compete at a fraction of what you will want to charge, you are yet again dreaming.

Starbucks has an opportunity here, I hope for shareholders sake they do not blow it...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long MCD, none

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The Fed: One and Done

2:15 is the time today we find out about rates. Expect either no change or a 25 point cut. What in all reality matters more is what is said.

Food and oil prices have risen substantially and even though are not included in the inflation (CPI) measurement, the Fed has noticed. How then can we combat the price increase? Easily. Strengthen the dollar.

How can we strengthen the dollar? Stop the decline in interest rates is the easiest and fastest way. We could also require congress stop running deficits and and actually do something about social security and medicare. But since neither of those is likely to happen anytime soon, we must turn to the Fed.

The last vote to lower rates was an 8-2 and for the first time, the worry over both thedollar and inflation made their way into the discussion. For this reason, one has to think that given the stability is equity prices since the last meeting and the rapid increase in commodity prices during the same time frame, the later must now be given prominence in the decision making process.

The most recent auction for April at the Fed went off at higher rates than the previous one, the first such rise since they began.

Expect the statement to say that the "risks to growth while still present have moderated" and that "commodity prices are of increasing concern".

Doing nothing here will not hurt growth from an interest rate perspective and will actually help the economy and any strength in the dollar ought to lead to an immediate and perhaps dramatic decline in commodity prices.

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Wednesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Smith & Wesson (SWHC)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Pali Research Neutral » Buy
Microchip (MCHP)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
First Horizon (FHN)- Punk, Ziegel & Co Mkt Perform » Buy
Wrigley (WWY)- Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Horizon (FHN)- Sandler O'Neill Sell » Hold
Centene (CNC)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Amerigroup (AGP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Buenaventura SA (BVN)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
American Electric (AEP)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Wachovia (WB)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Momenta Pharma (MNTA)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform

Downgrades
Fresh Del Monte (FDP)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Idenix Pharma (IDIX)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Flushing Fin (FFIC)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Digi Intl (DGII)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Outperform » Market Perform
Universal Health (UHS)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Sina (SINA)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Nelnet (NNI)- Sandler O'Neill Buy » Hold
PrivateBancorp (PVTB)- Sandler O'Neill Hold » Sell
Cott (COT)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Intevac (IVAC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
TriZetto Group (TZIX)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Microtune (TUNE)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Microtune (TUNE)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Potash (POT)- RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform
Norsk Hydro (NHYDY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Silicom Limited (SILC)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Calpine (CPN)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Sunoco (SUN)- Soleil Buy » Hold
Wrigley (WWY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
CB Richard Ellis (CBG)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Symantec (SYMC)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wednesday's Picks
Karen Finerman recommends Altria (MO) $20.24 on the dip.

Pete Najarian prefers Biogen (BIIB0 $61.33 also on the dip.

For the second day in a row Guy Adami recommends shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.65

Jeff Macke thinks Citigroup (C) $26.32 is a sell.

Tuesday's Results
Jeff Macke recommends the United States Oil Fund (USO) $95.69 Close $92.9 LOSS

Karen Finerman prefers Kasier Aluminum (KALU) $68.35 Close $68.04 LOSS

Guy Adami likes betting against the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.35 with a tight stop. Close $60.65 GAIN

Tim Seymour suggests shorting Petrobras (PBR) $122.76 Close $116.79 GAIN


2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 32-23\4-1
Tim Seymore= 16-12
Guy Adami= 32-28
Pete Najarian= 34-24
Karen Finerman= 25-27-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Lead Cases in RI Now Almost Non-Existent

How can you have a "public nuisance" when the nuisance itself is virtually eradicated? That must be the question Sherwin Williams (SHW), NL Industires(NL) and the other defendants must be shaking their heads asking themselves.


Jane Genova reports
:
"Actually, as LEGAL NEWSLINE's John O'Brien notes, new cases have been steadily and significantly plummeting over the past 10 years. Ironically, it was about that time that the lead paint public nuisance lawsuit activity began in RI. According to the 2007 statistics recently released from the RI Department of Health, only 1.3 percent of children being tested in the state had in their blood elevated levels of lead. That represents a 22 percent reduction from 2006. Back in 1998, 6.6 percent of children tested had elevated levels of lead in their blood (80% decline).

These figures contradict the plaintiff's asserting during RI II that the progress on reducing childhood lead poisoning had reached a plateau and would not decline further without intervention. The form that intervention should take, the plaintiff contended, was abatement of lead in every residence where it was still present."

Genova continues, "O'Brien reports that the RI Attorney General's office, which put RI I and RI II in play, had no comment. Could this saga be renamed: The Case of the Vanishing Public Nuisance?"

The whole basis for the case in RI was that the decline of lead in children had stopped and billions were needed to further decrease it. Yet, the State's own numbers illustrate the fallacy of the very argument they based their case on. Let's also not forget that this point is one of the issues on appeal, that the RI Attorney General withheld these numbers from the initial trial as they contradicted his claims. AG Lynch is facing a contempt charge for his actions.

The litigation in RI has smelled worse than the bay at low tide in summer since the beginning.

What one has to wonder is that with all empirical evidence in direct opposition to the claims the State is making, why hasn't the case been dropped? What is the RISC even considering? A graceful exit for Judge Silverstein, who did more for the case that the RI AG did by directing the jury's verdict?

What is happening now is akin to the State claiming they need tougher tax enforcement laws because of declining tax revenues while at the same time ignoring those very revenues are increasing. How can RI in good conscious claim they need billions to fight lead poisoning because it has stopped decline when the reality is the decline, far from stopping is actually still declining dramatically? How?

Of those still being afflicted, hoe many are due to toy recalls in the past year?

Ohio, Missouri and NJ have already decided the issue in court and unlike RI ,seem to be capable of common sense and have the ability to follow the law.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHW, None

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ADM: Profiting More From Food than Fuel

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) turned in a fantastic quarter this morning. Highlights..

-- Net sales and other operating income increased 64% to $18.7 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 and 51% or $16.2 billion for the nine months.
-- Third quarter segment operating profit increased 54% to $913 million from $593 million last year.
-- Oilseeds Processing operating profit increased $52 million for the quarter and $119 million for the nine months as global demand for protein and oil improved.
-- Corn Processing operating profit decreased $79 million for the quarter and $177 million for the nine months due principally to higher net corn costs.
-- Agricultural Services operating profit increased $320 million for the quarter and $618 million for the nine months as highly volatile market conditions provided exceptional merchandising opportunities.
-- Other segment operating profit increased due to improved margins and increased financial services income.


CEO Patricia Woertz said about proposed changes to the energy bill, "I actually find it sad and even a little ironic that this attack on biofuels is directed to the one alternative we have today. Biofuels are a real solution to a real problem. To retreat from biofuels is wrong. It's foolish. It's dangerous. It's an empty gesture. It won't fill anyone's stomach. It won't fill anyone's gas tank," she added.

She is right. Food price rises are due to demand and weather worldwide, not biofuels. Wheat prices are soaring not because of biofuels but because of demand in China and India for the commodity and poor harvests in Australia and Europe. Woertz, when she took over at ADM predicted the situation we are in.

She laid out the scenario then that as nations developed, the demand for protein based products would increase exponentially. Here excitement for taking the ADM job at the time was due to its position in the food chain for those products. She has been 100% accurate. A decrease in the use of corn in the US by eliminating the biofuel requirement would do nothing the quell demand for wheat or soy worldwide. Let's be honest, America is still a net exported of corn and wheat. We can't even use all of what we have.

All commodities are pegged to the dollar and this is the basis for the rise. As the dollar continues to decline in value, the cost of those commodities (corm ,wheat, soy, oil etc) rises. Should the dollar increase in value, the prices of them will drop. Both of these scenario's have nothing to due with biofuels. The suddenly staggering cost of transporting food to markets due to high oil prices has more to do with increased food costs than biofuels.

Should we get rid of the 51 cent subsidy for ethanol? Don't ask ADM, they do not receive it. Ask Exxon (XOM) and the refiners. They are the recipients of the tariff, not ethanol producers. It is technically a "blending credit" given to refiners for mixing ethanol in gas.

Why keep it? consider this, the ethanol blenders credit cost taxpayers about $3 billion last year. However, it reduced crop price supports by about $6 billion and our oil import bill by another $15 billion. In short, giving refiners an economic incentive to use more ethanol has a positive economic effect on our economy.

We also have to note that the $15 billion we save on our oil bill is $15 billion that stayed in the US and did not find it way to the Middle East.

As an investment, ADM's fortunes have turned not on biofuels (Corn processing, which includes HFCS and ethanol was only 20% of profits in the most recent quarter), but from the world's demand for food. That, will not change anytime soon and a very real argument can be made that the increases we have seen are only the beginning of what is to come.

More from today's call later...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long ADM

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Tuesday's Links

Another Thank You, Red Sox, Starbucks' Music, Crime Pays

- Thanks for the mention.

- This is great




- Well this took way too long...

- Can you believe it? From thief to "consultant" in months..

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Blockbuster (BBI) Seeing what Sticks to the Wall

Ever hear the saying "throw some $#%t against the wall and see what sticks"? Thus seems to be Blockbuster's (BBI) current business plan.

After being late to the video by mail model, late to the box top set model, talking about turning their obsolete locations into Apple Stores (AAPL) like locations, and attempting a doomed from the start takeover of Circuit City (CC), Blockbuster is trying something else.

Now Blockbuster is in talks about taking a stake in the new premium TV channel to be launched by Viacom with Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer.

Ok. Haven't we all come to the conclusion blockbuster doesn't have the financial ability to complete the proposed Circuit city deal? How do they intend on doing this also? Have you ever seen a company run in so many seemingly disconnected directions at once?

This smacks of desperation. Blockbuster could survive and even prosper and compete with Netflix (NFLX) if they would only acknowledge what everyone but them seemingly understands, they need to close their stores. Should that happen, the cash save could possibly finance one or some of the shotgun like business moves they are contemplating. They cannot, however, keep them and do the others..

I guess the only thing left to do for them is to talk about a merger with Sprint (S)?

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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USG (USG) on Housing

If you believe management at USG (USG), the worst for housing looks to be over.

CEO William Foote recently said "The commercial market, which had remained relatively stable during the collapse of the housing market may have reached its peak. So our major market segments are weak, but any further declines are likely to be less severe than that which we've already experienced.

Said another way, we believe the drama is over and it's now about working through the bottom and getting back to a more growing environment. Indeed not all the news, though, I have to share is bad. There are some encouraging signs in the market..."

Also noted:
* The price decline in wall board prices has stopped and the Q1 increase they saw was the first in "more than 15 months".
* The first price increase was February 15th and that was announced at 10% increase and then followed up with an April 7th increase of 10%.
* Wallboard production volume in Q1 was up slightly from the fourth quarter of 2007.

Foot also said:
"Yes, the fundamentals of new housing [inaudible] and its a pretty, our sense is refining a bottom we haven't called it yet, I mean it's sort of function of what the broader real economy and the capital markets do. But it's feeling like that or you saw them all starts number and it was a little bit below expectation. And so, we were just long the bottom here. But I don't think, we haven't changed our view of the aggregate market opportunity this year and although let's say, it seems to be sort of as I said in my opening comments, we think the drama is over and just sort of pumping along here and importantly [ph] in the next year. Because we have worked to this inventory and so homes but the worst news is behind us just the matter of… with this bottom."

If you are asking about housing, ignore the builders. Their individual results are irrelevant as the multitude of factors going into them distort their actual meaning. USG is a far better gauge. No matter what is being built by whom, they need USG products.

Foote and Co. have a far better take on the situation as a whole than a DR Horton (DHI) or Centex (CTX) do individually. Based on what they are saying, there is light at the end of this tunnel. It may be a way off, but there is light.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Tuesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
STEC Inc (STEC)- B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Cray (CRAY)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
MCG Capital (MCGC)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
National City (NCC)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
US Airways (LCC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Masimo (MASI)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Marvell (MRVL)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
FirstFed Financial (FED)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Credit Suisse (CS)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Petro-Canada (PCZ)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Big Lots (BIG)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Altera (ALTR)- Charter Equity Mkt Perform » Buy
LM Ericsson (ERIC)- Charter Equity Mkt Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Gulfport Energy (GPOR)- Dahlman Rose Buy » Hold
Chemed (CHE)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Scotiabank (BNS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
McMoRan Expl (MMR)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
American Intl (AIG)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Continental Air (CAL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Noble Corp (NE)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Sealy (ZZ)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Goodyear Tire (GT)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Cash America (CSH)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Kohl's (KSS)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Northern Trust (NTRS)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
LM Ericsson (ERIC)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Shire Pharm (SHPGY)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Chartered Semi (CHRT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
MB Financial (MBFI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Weingarten Realty (WRI)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Sirtris Pharma (SIRT)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform


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Monday, April 28, 2008

"Fast Money" for Tuesday


Tuesday's Picks
Jeff Macke recommends the United States Oil Fund (USO) $95.69

Karen Finerman prefers Kasier Aluminum (KALU) $68.35

Guy Adami likes betting against the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.35 with a tight stop.

Tim Seymour suggests shorting Petrobras (PBR) $122.76

Monday's Results
None


2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 32-23-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 31-28
Pete Najarian= 34-24
Karen Finerman= 25-26-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%


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Lowe's Getting Interesting

Almost a year since my first ever Lowe's (LOW) post. With the housing decline seemingly slowing, it may be time to take a closer look.

In the latest quarter ending Feb. 1, earning fell to $408 million, or 28 cents per share, from $613 million, or 40 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Sales dropped to $10.38 billion from $10.41 billion. For the year, net income declined to $2.81 billion, or $1.86 per share, from $3.1 billion, or $1.99 per share. The 6% annual EPS drop was far better than the 15% drop at Home Depot

When one considers what has happened to housing, these results are actually oustanding.

Both Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's have curtailed expansion plans. This is good.


Also, value investor David Dreman has a position in the company.



The stock is sitting at 4 year lows and it just may be we are at the worst in housing.


I would not be surprised at all to see a nice bump from the upcoming "stimulus checks" being issue this week. I was at Lowe's this weekend and have not seen it as packed as it was in a very long time. Perhaps people were there spending on credit cards in anticipation of paying it off after the checks come in?

Between Home Depot and Lowe's, the latter is clearly the better run company and the stock price has held up much better over the past year down 16% vs a 22% loss for Home Depot.

Now, The Depot does have a 3% yield (vs 1.2% for Lowe's) going for it and that cannot be overlooked. I just cannot trust management at the Depot to be wise stewards of the cash it has or not to sink it into debt to pacify impatient shareholders.

That being said, if I am going to invest in the sector, the edge has to go to Lowe's.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Monday's Links

Starbucks "entertainment", Lead Paint, Sequoia, Gphone

- Or, you could just get rid of it, you were better off before it.

- Believe it or not, we are still playing this game

- One of the greatest funds ever.

- Coming soon.........

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A Look at AutoNation (AN)

Been getting a deluge of email since Lampert's big buying in AutonNation(AN). Here we go.

Overview:
AutoNation (AN) operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, it owned and operated 322 vehicle franchises from 244 stores located in major metropolitan markets, predominantly in the Sunbelt region of the United States. Its stores sell 38 different brands of vehicles. Core brands of vehicles sold, representing more than 96% of the vehicles sold, were manufactured by Toyota, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Nissan, Chrysler, Daimler and BMW.

Despite Q1 EPS from continuing operations of $0.31 compared to a year ago of $0.39, AutoNation did outperform the U.S. retail auto sales market as it declined 11% according to CNW Research vs 8% for the company. In its main markets of California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona, AutoNation's new unit sales were down 11% vs approximately 15% according for the industry according to CNW Research.

Industry analysts like CNW and J.D. Power forecast improved new vehicle sales beginning in 2009 due to fleet age and increase in vehicle scrappage, and a robust line-up of new products. CNW forecast new vehicle sales of 16.3 million in 2009, 16.7 million in 2010, and 16.9 million in 2011. We concur with this assessment for future new vehicle sales.

During Q1,they repurchased 1.9 million shares of stock (1% of total) at an average price of $14.84 per share for a total of $28 million. Future repurchases are subject to limitations contained in debt agreements. As of April 1, 2008, they had capacity for share repurchases of approximately $32 million. They are permitted to add back 50% of net income after tax and any stock option exercise proceeds for additional repurchases.
Actually, that is a very unique and disciplined way to do it.

Non-vehicle debt-to-capital ratio was 33% at the end of the most recent quarter and spent $29 million on the acquisition of a BMW dealership. Inventory was at 57 days, 5 days higher than last year.

Shares are down 25% over the past year based on the economy.

Buffett, Lampert and other value investors have been buying into the auto industry. The key to remember if you are so inclines is to stay away from the likes of Ford (F) and GM (GM) and stick with the retailers. When the economy improves, so will their business. A stock price down 25% vs a 15% EPS decline? Sounds like an opportunity, especially when you consider the share count reduction that will cause EPS to jump on the other side of the rebound.

I think one could wait until summer to pick up shares and not pay much more than today. It may not be such a bad idea...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Harley Davidson Increases Dividend

At the recent shareholder meeting, Harley Davidson increase the annual dividend 10% to .33 per share quarterly. That gives it a 3.4% yield at today's price.

View meeting results here:

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long HOG

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Race and Democrats

No investing here but just an observation and a question. Why are Democrats so obsessed with race?

Condolezza Rice and Colin Powell have both been called "Uncle Tom's" by Democrats. When Micheal Steele ran for Governor of Maryland, the Maryland Democratic party called him an "Uncle Tom".

Bill Clinton is claiming Barack Oboma is playing the "race card". Of course this is after Barack's speech (lecture to America) on race and 8 years after Democrats labeled Clinton himself the "First Black President".

97% of African American Democrats in Pennsylvania voted for Barack. 97%? Castro would love numbers like that.

It is not a "Presidential Election" issue either as Rice, Powell and Steele were not running for the office.

Does anyone have an answer?

Why? Why are Democrats so fixated and hostile when it comes to race?

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Dow Chemical (DOW) Earnings Call Notes

Some very interesting items in this quarters earnings call for Dow Chemical (DOW)

* Dow repurchased 10.8 million shares in the first quarter ($410 million worth) the most purchased in one quarter in over 10 years. Since Q1 2006, Dow has spent $2.5 billion buying back 61 million shares.
* Expect $400 million in repurchases in Q2
* Liveris on JV openings "On the HPPO project with BASF in Antwerp, that project has had some delays, so we expected to be back half this year in terms to start up on the EQUATE expansion that will come up in phases, the third quarter will see the ethylene and EG ...EOEG plant come up and the poly ethylene will come up in the early part of next year so there will be some impact from that and the PO project later in the year."
* Liveris on what will happen with the $9.5 billion from Kuwait:
"I've repeated to many of you and so has Geoffery, that our discipline is intact on the M&A front. We've had several years of strict discipline, financial and strategic criteria, we are going to go through the year and frankly, the share buyback option as the Kuwait deal looms to close, becomes more and more probable and we've always said we're going to preserve our optionality in case one of the targets we've been interested in now, not just for a month, but for years if these targets become more realizable, we will look at them, but I think the probability waits heavily to share buyback, to your question as the year goes by, what you'll see from us is patience and prudence and discipline and as the Kuwait deal, as Geoffery mentioned in his remarks gets closer and closer to- through the higher due diligence phase to close, the chances of share buyback increase quite dramatically."

I have been saying what would be perfect would be a $4.5 billion repurchase, a nice dividend hike and keep the rest for acquisitions as they come up. Liveris has proven to be a deft and disciplined value investor in this area and leaving his the means to exercise that ability without the company having to take on more debt is good for shareholders. This does not mean that a year from now if no opportunities arise another $2 to $3 billion could not be bought, there is just no reason to rush out and do it at once, even though it would make a nice headline.

Doing a partial buyback like the one above would enable a $.25 cent dividend increase without any additional cash outlay, bumping the yield up to 4.7% at current prices. I can live with that.

* Liveris on acquisitions:
"And it's based on history. As you can see, we've done 11 smaller acquisitions, as Geoffrey mentioned in his remarks. The probability is that they will stay small until the right opportunity presents itself that's bigger. Meantime, then, the deadline, if you want to use that term, of the close of our Kuwait deal increases the probability that share buyback will become a reality. And we're fine with that. I mean, we're preserving optionality and we're doing share buyback. It's a big and. And that's how we're managing the Company. That's how we're managing the precious cash our shareholders give us the right to manage."

Am I the only one who thinks Sherwin Williams (SHW) fits perfectly here?

All in all, perfectly in keeping with both stated objectives and the direction given to shareholders.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long Dow, SHW

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Monday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Wright Medical (WMGI)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Axsys Technologies (AXYS)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Emulex (ELX)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Synovus (SNV)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Health Management (HMA)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Progenics Pharm (PGNX)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Baidu.com (BIDU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Phase Forward (PFWD)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Newmont Mining (NEM)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)- Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform
Virgin Mobile USA (VM)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Aetna (AET)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Harte-Hanks (HHS)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Janus Capital (JNS)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Nike (NKE)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
AmericanWest Banc (AWBC)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Columbia Sportswear (COLM)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
Raytheon (RTN)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Dougherty & Company Neutral » Sell
NETGEAR (NTGR)- BWS Financial Strong Buy » Buy
Arch Coal (ACI)- Caris & Company Average » Below Average
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Peabody Energy (BTU)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Banco Brad SA (BBD)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
3M (MMM)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)- Barrington Research Outperform » Mkt Perform
T. Rowe Price (TROW)- Sandler O'Neill Hold » Sell
UCBH Holdings (UCBH)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
AMBAC Fincl (ABK)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Dover Downs Gaming (DDE)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
EMCOR Group (EME)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Ford Motor (F)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
BJ Restaurants (BJRI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
EastGroup (EGP)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Dvlps Divers Realty (DDR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Ford Motor (F)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
America Movil SA (AMX)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold


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Sunday, April 27, 2008

The Week's Insider Buys

Top dollar amounts of insider purchases for the past week.

Autozone Inc (AZO)- $8,487,571
Presstek Inc (PRST)- $3,549,265
Colonial Bancgroup Inc (CNB)- $2,942,470
Visa Inc (V)- $1,760,000
Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)- $997,233
Motive Inc (MOTV)- $646,700
Slm Corp (SLM)- $498,855
Alternative Asset Management Acqstn Corp (AMV)- $300,901

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday's Picks
None

Friday's Results
Jeff Macke, Guy Adami and Karen Finerman all think Microsoft (MSFT) $31.8 is a buy if it trades below $30. Close $29.83 LOSS

Pete Najarian prefers Saso (SSL) $57.39 Close $57.19 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 32-23-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 31-28
Pete Najarian= 34-24
Karen Finerman= 25-26-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%


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Friday, April 25, 2008

Friday's Links

Ouch, Common Sense, Class, Paperchase

- Who needs the Republican's to say anything?

- Courts seem to be using a bunch of this lately..

- Somehow this will be twisted into a "republican conspiracy"

- Anyone been in one of these?

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The Week's Top Ten at VIN

Weekend reading at Value investing News
1. Susan Buffett interview 8/26/2004
(via www.charlierose.com)

A remembrance of philanthropist Susan Thompson Buffet. She talks a lot about Warren Buffett.

2. Visit with Warren Buffett
(via www.bengrahaminvesting.ca)

On March 31, 2008 students from Dr. Athanassakos' Value Investing class travelled to Omaha, Nebraska to meet with Mr. Warren Buffet, the world's best known investor and the richest person in the world.

3. Buffett Leans on Italian Guide for Europe Investment
(via www.bloomberg.com)

Billionaire Warren Buffett, who will embark on a four-city European trip next month to meet with owners of family businesses, has for years been laying the groundwork for an acquisition in Europe.


4. Doubling Down in Financials - Interview with Richard Pzena
(via www.forbes.com)

When it comes to value investing or buying out-of-favor stocks, patience is a virtue. These days few are more virtuous than Richard Pzena, Chairman of Pzena Investment Management, a $20 billion assets money management company whose New York Stock Exchange listed shares are down more than 38% in the last 12 months.

5. The Money Kept Vanishing
(via online.wsj.com)

David Einhorn's New Book "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time"

6. Roger Lowenstein : Triple-A Failure
(via www.nytimes.com)

In 1996, Thomas Friedman, the New York Times columnist, remarked on “The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer” that there were two superpowers in the world — the United States and Moody’s bond-rating service — and it was sometimes unclear which was more powerful.

7. Buffett, Seeking Acquisitions, to Travel to Europe
(via www.bloomberg.com)

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett will visit Europe next month to scout potential acquisitions, said an executive at an Italian refiner who is organizing the tour.

8. Business Sector Breakdown of the Magic Formula
(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Does the Magic Formula screen favor certain types of businesses? And if so, why? These are the questions we'll examine in this new series examining which business sectors most frequently appear in the Magic Formula screen.

9. Looking Up to Warren Buffett
(via www.smartmoney.com)

T OFTEN SEEMS like every hedge-fund manager is reading from the same playbook about how to look, work and behave. Neatly pressed khakis; thumbs glued to a BlackBerry; slick digs in Greenwich or Manhattan staffed by number-crunching research drones. But apparently, Mohnish Pabrai never got his copy.


10. MFI Stock List Additions for Week Ending April 18, 2008
(via magicformulainvestor.blogspot.com)


Five new stocks were added to the Magic Formula List last week.


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Altria (MO) Earnings Call Notes

Notes from the Altria (MO) earnings call..The focus hereis on smokeless products as the potential market for Altria is large..

Regarding smokeless products:
Judy Hong - Goldman Sachs & Company, Inc.: "Okay. And then just... in terms of your Snus and the snuff product, can you talk about whether there is... the spending in the first quarter was also impacted by the investment behind those brands. I mean I imagine that they were just a limited test market, so that would not be the case, but can you talk about that and just maybe give us a color in terms of how you are seeing any progress on those products in your test markets?"

David R. Beran - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: "Yes, I'd be happy to. As we said or as I said back in the road show and when I was meeting with the investors is that this year the Marlboro Snus and Marlboro snuff were in the investment mode. So, we actually spent more money in the first quarter behind those two initiatives than we did a year ago because we weren't in test markets then. Is it material? No, it's not, but it was a slight drag in the first quarter. As we look at those two test markets, we expanded both test markets. I'll take the moist snuff first, we expanded that into 50 counties surrounding Atlanta and we're getting great learning from that test market on how consumers feel about the product, the overall product, their overall packaging and promotional strategy in the marketplace. When you look at Marlboro Snus, we expanded Marlboro Snus from Dallas into Indi, where we replaced Taboka Snus in that marketplace. And this same sort of learning has taken place there. We're looking at all the elements of our value equation and when I say that it’s product, packaging, positioning, and promotion out in the marketplace. And between those two initiatives, we believe that the Marlboro Snus product initiative is a longer-term play because that category does not exist in the U.S. marketplace with any potential size. But we still think that it is a promising category for us to be in."

Another smokelss question:

Filippe Goossens - Credit Suisse: "Okay. And then my final question, perhaps a follow-up on Judy's earlier question on Snus. It's kind of interesting when we look at the enthusiasm of Reynolds in terms of expanding the test marketing to 17 markets now, including some kind of metropolitan markets and contrast that with the somewhat less enthusiastic comments in terms of UST's longer experience with Snus, it kind of brings up two questions. The first one is obviously you already commented on that you see this as more a longer-term project, still I would like to kind of get more an impression from you, whether you really view this as a category that where the passage of time can meaningfully contribute to your EPS? And secondly, if I follow more kind of the comments from UST this morning, I kind of wonder if consumers will have a tough time embracing Snus as a category. It makes me wonder how they will embrace all these reduced risk or reduced harm products that the industry has been talking about for so long. So, in other words if it’s tough to embrace Snus, why would they embrace reduced risk products any quicker than what we're seeing with Snus so far?"

David R. Beran - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer: "Let me address the Snus comment... the question. When we went down this path, we spent a lot of time before we even went out into the marketplace, understanding the Snus model in Sweden. And understanding what potential consumers, adult smokers would think about Snus in the U.S. marketplace. And we saw an opportunity, we still see an opportunity and our first... our first entrance so to speak with Snus in the U.S. marketplace was with Taboka. And we use Taboka, so we could get an understanding with consumers before we decided to put Marlboro on the Snus product from a branding standpoint. And what we learned in Indi gave us confidence that the Snus marketplace can develop here in the U.S., but even today when we look at Snus and that's why we are still in a learning mode both in Dallas and Indi. We don't think we have it exactly right, we don't think anyone does yet in the U.S. marketplace because we are creating a new category. And… but we will continue to get learnings from those test markets and at this point we are still confident that it will be a longer-term play in the U.S. marketplace, but that this category can develop."

While it may be frustrating (it is) at the length of time it is taking for the smokeless products to be rolled out, when you have a brand like Marlboro, which one could argue may be one of the world's most valuable brands, you cannot risk damage to it. Altria is taking its time and based on the testing success so far, seems to be getting the product right.

We really do not want a "New Coke" (KO) fiasco.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long MO

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Another view on Starbucks

Here is another opinion on Starbucks (SBUX).



Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Sears (SHLD) and Bank of America (BAC): No Big Deal

A quick read of the headlines would lead one the believe the recent credit line non-renewal between Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Bank of America (BAC) is ominous for the retailer. To the contrary, it is an example of a well capitalized company telling a bank to take a hike.

Background (from the SEC filing by Sears):
"On April 14, 2008, Bank of America, N.A., as Issuing Bank under the Letter of Credit Agreement dated as of August 13, 2004, as amended (the "LC Agreement"), among Sears Holdings Corporation, Sears Roebuck Acceptance Corp., Sears, Roebuck and Co. and Kmart Corporation and Bank of America, N.A., advised us that it would not agree to renew the LC Agreement under its existing terms. The current term of the LC Agreement, which is a 364-day secured facility with a commitment amount of up to $1.0 billion, is scheduled to end in July 2008. At April 18, 2008, only $1.6 million in letters of credit were outstanding under the LC Agreement, which provides solely for the issuance of letters of credit and does not provide for direct borrowings. Substantially all of our outstanding letters of credit are issued under our $4.0 billion, five-year revolving credit facility (expiring March 2010), which has a $1.5 billion letter of credit sublimit (the "$4 Billion Revolver").

We have maintained the LC Agreement as a facility to enable the Company to cost-effectively issue letters of credit when surplus cash is available to collateralize the letters of credit. As we are now using our other facility (the $4.0 Billion Revolver) for substantially all our letter of credit needs, the termination of the LC Agreement is not expected to have any effect on Sears Holdings' liquidity.

No early termination penalties or fees would be incurred by us if the LC Agreement were to terminate at the end of the current term. We are evaluating whether or not we will replace the LC Agreement at this time."

So we have a $1 billion credit line that has only $1.6 million outstanding on it and a $4 billion revolving credit in place.

The real story is here than Bank of America is looking to squeeze every penny out of every loan they can to offset mortgage related losses. It is important to note that BAC never said they would NOT renew it, they just got greedy (or desperate). Since Sears has a fantastic balance sheet and another $4 billion credit of out there, they politely told BAC where to go.

Not renewing a credit line that is not even being used is hardly a the big deal that is being made of it out there.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD, None

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
LSI Logic (LSI)- Caris & Company Average » Above Average
Apple (AAPL)- Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform
Southwest Bancorp (OKSB)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
True Religion (TRLG)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
QLT Inc (QLTI)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Everest Re (RE)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
RF Micro Device (RFMD)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Level 3 (LVLT)- Merriman Curhan Ford Sell » Neutral
Zions Bancorp (ZION)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Downgrades
Grey Wolf (GW)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
GMX Resources (GMXR)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
VASCO Data Security (VDSI)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Parallel Petroleum (PLLL)- CapitalOne southcoast Strong Buy » Add
II-VI Inc (IIVI)- Needham Buy » Hold
Hilb, Rogal & Hobbs (HRH)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Extreme Networks (EXTR)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
JAKKS Pacific (JAKK)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Teradyne (TER)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
Tomotherapy (TOMO)- Soleil Hold » Sell
XM Satellite (XMSR)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Barrett Business (BBSI)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
EastGroup (EGP)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
The Inventure Grp (SNAK)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
NewMarket (NEU)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
DIRECTV (DTV)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Take-Two (TTWO)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Maidenform Brands (MFB)- UBS Neutral » Sell
First Midwest Banc (FMBI)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Tellabs (TLAB)- GARP Research Buy » Neutral

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Thursday, April 24, 2008

"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday's Picks
Jeff Macke, Guy Adami and Karen Finerman all think Microsoft (MSFT) $31.8 is a buy if it trades below $30.

Pete Najarian prefers Saso (SSL) $57.39

Thursday's Results
On Wednesday all the traders agree that Microsoft (MSFT) $31.45 is a buy ahead of earnings! Close $31.80 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 32-22-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 31-27
Pete Najarian= 34-23
Karen Finerman= 25-25-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Altria (MO) Reports In Line

More tobacco, more good results. Today it is Altria's (MO) turn.

-- Net revenues increased 2.8% to $4.4 billion
-- Adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations up 12.1% to $0.37 versus $0.33 in the first quarter of 2007
-- Altria reaffirms its 2008 guidance for adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations in the range of $1.63 to $1.67, representing a growth rate of approximately 9% to 11%, from a base of $1.50 per share in 2007
-- Earnings from continuing operations decreased 11.8% to $614 million
-- Marlboro delivers strong retail share gains, up 0.7 share points to 41.5%
-- John Middleton, Inc. posts strong cigar volume gains, up 8.2%, driven by Black & Mild
-- A $7.5 billion two-year share repurchase program. Altria began repurchasing shares as part of this program in April 2008.

More after the earnings call tomorrow. Of particular interest:
-- Test of Snus, results?
-- Test of Smokeless Tobacco, results?


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long MO

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Phillip Morris International (PM) Earnings Call Notables

Here are some of the interesting exchanges during the recent PMI (PM) earnings call.

Filippe Goossens - Credit Suisse: "Okay. The next question, Hermann, if I have my numbers correct using your $0.46 in dividends for the quarter, if I annualize that and I look at the share price, obviously, the share price will be up this morning, but I'm coming out with less than 4% dividend yield, which puts you at the lower end, particularly compared to the U.S. players out there. When can we expect the dividend payouts to go up, particularly if you look at your very strong balance sheet even after the share buybacks?"

Hermann Waldemer (CFO): "Okay, I think there we have to stay with the facts. The facts are that we have an annual rate of 184. We have $0.46 cents for the quarter. The other fact is that we have a payout ratio of 65%. And the rest is entirely up to the Board and it is a Board decision, including the timing."

At the new earnings level predicted the payout ought to rise to about $2.05 to $2.10 a share. Probably will not be announced until the fall when EPS for the year is more predictable.

China:
Christine Farkas - Merrill Lynch: "Okay, great. And the final question, Hermann, is on China. Can you just update a little bit on the progress there and what you see in the remainder of the year in both the export business as well as Marlboro within China?"

Hermann Waldemer: "Okay. In China we are really absolutely on track, also, compared to what we said during the road show. So we expect on the domestic market the launch of licensed-produced volume Marlboro in China actually the summer of this year. This is going to come. We are on track on this one."

After another China question:
"Right. On China, I mean, meaningful EPS impact for this year, no. That's just too small to have an effect.

Look, I mean, the key point really is for China to be [inaudible] partner of the China National Tobacco Company there. That is really the key in there; it is building long-term relationships in China.

And that has really two elements to it, which is the China domestic element - that is Marlboro licensed production for the summer - and that is then on the other side really doing business internationally with them"


The fact that the largest smoking population in the world is "not yet meaningful" ought to underscore for those wondering how much growth there still is for the company the international smoking market.

On Recent Interval Acquisition:
Thomas Russo - Russo, Gardner & Gardner: "You bet. A couple of questions. First, talk about the Interval acquisition and what the market is like in France for leaves. I think that's where you suggested that it was intended to serve your needs. And then what's the market like for fine cut in France?"

Hermann Waldemer: "Okay. Interval, actually, I mean, on that acquisition I would say we have said before that we are a tobacco company. There you see we mean that serious. Actually, Interval has a 14.8% share of the fine cut market in France. An estimated operating company's income of that would be some 25 million Euros. That's about the size of the business there.

Important is actually this is the leading brand amongst young adults, legal age to 29. So it complements, I would say, our portfolio very nicely. We have been in that market in the entire EU region quite a bit, but we have been in there mostly with our cigarette trademarks and there we really have now a real grow-your-own trademark there, we have acquired there, so that's another positive of that acquisition."

Other notes:
* Currency was $.09 of the $.20 earnings beat
* $13 billion, two year stock repurchase begins in May.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long PM

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David Dremen on Opportunities

Dremen discusses oil (USO), Conoco Phillips (COP), Bank of America (BAC), Lowes (LOW) and Altria (MO)




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long MO,USO

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Sovereign Wealth Funds: Less Powerful Than Pension Plans

Some Fed testimony today shed light on the fallacy that we ought to fear Sovereign Wealth Funds power....In fact, they are less powerful than insurance companies, pension funds ans US mutual funds.

From the testimony:
"One of the reasons that sovereign wealth funds have attracted more attention in the past year is their size. The largest funds are very large. For example, Norway's sovereign wealth fund reports total assets of over $350 billion; China's fund and Singapore's two funds each manage assets of at least $100 billion. This places sovereign wealth funds among the largest investment funds worldwide. However, while the estimated $2 to $3 trillion sovereign wealth funds manage exceeds the $1.4 trillion managed by hedge funds, it is much less than the over $15 trillion managed by pension funds, the $16 trillion managed by insurance companies, or the $21 trillion managed by investment companies.1 It is an even smaller fraction of global debt and equity securities, which exceed $100 trillion."

"Since August 2007, U.S. banking organizations have raised approximately $100 billion in new capital (Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Bear Sterns (BSC), Wachovia (WB) and others). During this period, sovereign wealth funds have been an important source of capital for U.S. financial institutions. Sovereign wealth funds made direct investments totaling more than $30 billion in U.S. financial firms, including approximately $17 billion in commercial banking organizations. "

"Sovereign wealth funds, like private investment funds, U.S. state investment vehicles, hedge funds, private equity firms, and many other investors, have generally made investments at levels that are not large enough to trigger the thresholds for review and approval by the federal banking agencies under the federal banking laws. If a sovereign wealth fund were to make an investment in a U.S. banking organization that triggers one of these thresholds, the application would be evaluated by the Federal Reserve or other appropriate federal banking agency under the relevant statutes with no preference or handicap relative to other investors. Any sovereign wealth fund controlling a U.S. bank or bank holding company would be required to operate subject to the limitations on affiliate transactions in sections 23A and 23B of the Federal Reserve Act and the bank or bank holding company would be subject to the full range of regulatory and supervisory tools available to the Board."

Read whole text here:

Short explanation? While a growing entity, their actual power is dwarfed by existing institutions. When you also consider the percentage of ownership is small, their actual ability to effect meaningful change or assert influence in the institutions they take stakes in has to be questioned. Especially if that attempt runs contrary to investors wished.

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Thursday's Links

Video, Lending, McDonald's, iwhatever

- The future of video in your home...

- Am I the only one who is thinking, "What took so long"?

- This is no longer news, when they miss, let me know.

- If I never hear the phrase "i" something again it will be too soon.

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Dow Chemical (DOW) Beats

Two words, great management. Despite input costs rising 42% and the N. American slowdown, Dow delivered EPS of $.99 vs $1.00 last year beating the $.94 a share estimates.

Dow reported sales of $14.8 billion for the first quarter of 2008, 19& higher than in the same period last year, another quarterly sales record (beat last quarter). Net income was $941 million compared to $973 million in Q1 of 2007.

Equity earnings for the quarter were $274 million, marking the fifth consecutive quarter in which equity earnings exceeded $250 million. The importance of the equity portion is paramount as the percentage of profits derived from them is only going to increase in the future.

Another key sector, Agricultural Sciences, posted record sales of $1.3 billion, 27% higher than the same period last year and EBIT was $331 million, compared with $282 million in the year ago period (another record). Recent acquisitions of Agromen, MTI and Duo Maize performed well, and the integration of recently acquired Triumph Seeds is proceeding nicely.

"Dow delivered an exceptionally good quarter, in which broad-based pricing initiatives, growth in our Performance businesses, especially Dow AgroSciences, and our strong international presence counterbalanced ongoing weakness in the United States, and an unprecedented increase in purchased feedstock and energy costs," said Andrew N. Liveris, Dow's chairman and chief executive officer. "Add in consistently robust contributions from joint ventures, and you can see all elements of our strategy at work, as we continue our transformation to an earnings-growth company."

Earnings call later today, will update then

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long DOW

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Starbucks Now An Avoid At All Costs

I have calmed down enough to finally put some thoughts down.

Starbucks (SBUX) U.S. comp sales fell by the mid-single digits on a percentage basis due to lower traffic (no kidding). U.S. same-store sales fell 1% in the Q1, the first drop since Starbucks began breaking out the figure in 2004. Global same-store sales rose just 1% in that period, the lowest figure since Starbucks went public in 1992.

Starbucks now says it expects earnings for Q1 of 15 cents a share, down from the prior year's 19 cents (21% decline), with revenue up 12%.

As a result FY2009 earnings to be "somewhat lower" than the last year's 87 cents. Starbucks said it can't be more specific "due to the lack of visibility into near-term economic conditions." In January they projected earnings of 96 cents to 98 cents. Funny how they can be very specific when expecting an increase but when a decrease is in the cards, they just cannot finger it. Translation? It will be very bad...

Althought, management does have a history of deceiving shareholders.

Looking at this (and after reading yesterday's excuses)one can only assume we are approaching a depression until one looks at the other headlines from late in the day Wednesday.


Mac Sales Boost Apple's (AAPL) Profit

Amazon's Revenue Soars 37%

So I guess the reasoning now is that folks will pony up $3000 for a Mac but not $4 for a latte? Maybe the myriad of items being bought on Amazon (AMZN) each day are under $4?

The problem is that Starbucks has stopped giving people what they want. Schultz actually said people are "spending less" at his stores but "not going anywhere else".

DELUSIONAL..... Howard, you sell an addictive beverage that people cannot go without. If they are not getting it from you, they are getting it from someone else. This is like an old prostitute whose business is in decline thinking people have just stopped using prostitutes. No, they are, just not you.

Has be bothered to look at the results at Mcdonald's (MCD)? Saying "we are above them" while sales crash around you is nice if you are the captain of the Titanic going down with the ship, if you are the CEO of the company, investors are going down with you.

The final insult? Schultz refuses blame for the last three years.
"While this is having a substantial impact on our performance, I am as enthusiastic as I was when I returned to Starbucks as CEO 3 1/2 months ago about our opportunity to reinvigorate the Starbucks Experience." Schultz is giving the impression that he "needs time" to work the turnaround.

Earth to Howard, you have been Chairman the whole time. You never left. One could say you have overseen this disaster. What should they do? Here, try this, it can't do much worse.

One could honestly say that at least Phillip Schoonover at Circuit City (CC) acknowledges what he is doing is not working and things need to change dramatically. Schultz is blaming...housing....sad...

I wish I had shorted this thing over 15 months ago when I first pointed out the problems killing it today.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):None (thankfully)

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Thursday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Sturm Ruger (RGR)- CL King Neutral » Accumulate
Arkansas Best (ABFS)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
KVH Industries (KVHI)- Needham Hold » Buy
Green Bankshares (GRNB)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Coach (COH)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Fifth Third (FITB)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Labranche (LAB)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
IDT Corp (IDT)- Stanford Research Sell » Hold
Brinker (EAT)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Underweight » Hold
Colnl BancGrp (CNB)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Smith Intl (SII)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Edwards Lifesci (EW)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
SunTrust Banks (STI)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Medco Health Solutions (MHS)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Cerner (CERN)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Hill International (HIL)- B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral
Regal-Beloit (RBC)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Penn Natl Gaming (PENN)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Delphi Fin (DFG)- Fox Pitt Outperform » In Line
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Underperform
Canadian Pacific (CP)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Lincoln National (LNC)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Yahoo! (YHOO)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Noble Energy (NBL)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Liberty Media (LINTA)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
eBay (EBAY)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
RC2 (RCRC)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
America Movil SA (AMX)- Pali Research Buy » Neutral
O'Reilly Auto (ORLY)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
Delphi Fin (DFG)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Ameriprise Financial (AMP)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Biovail (BVF)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Meredith (MDP)- Citigroup Buy » Hold $48 » $36
Spectrum Pharma (SPPI)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Repsol SA (REP)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Steel Dynamics (STLD)- Citigroup Buy » Hold

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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday's Picks
On Wednesday all the traders agree that Microsoft (MSFT) $31.45 is a buy ahead of earnings!

Wednesday's Results
Karen Finerman recommends Microsoft (MSFT) $30.25 ahead of earnings. Close $31.45 GAIN

Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $160.2 also into earnings.Close $162.89 GAIN

Pete Najarian likes EMC Corp (EMC) $15.59 but don’t chase it over $17, he counsels. Close $15.89 GAIN

Jeff Macke thinks Yahoo (YHOO) $28.54 is a sell. Close $28.08 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 31-22-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 30-27
Pete Najarian= 33-23
Karen Finerman= 24-25-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%


Disclosure ("none" means no position):

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Starbucks Cuts EPS Estimates

Starbucks (SBUX) said the economic environment was the "weakest in our company's history" and that it was being hurt by its heavy presence in California and Florida, which have been hard hit by the housing downturn. That's right, Starbucks actually blamed housing.............

I can't even get into this now. The thoughts and biting comments are flooding me so fast I feel like that guy in the movie "Scanners".

Housing? Unbelievable........

Of all the excuses...housing?

More on this tomorrow...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Tilson on Buffett's European Trip

Whitney Tilson talks about what Berkshire's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett might be looking at in Europe.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Bill Miller's Shareholder Letter: Released Today

Here is Bill Millers latest letter. Interesting.....

Dear Shareholder (Link to letter),

The credit crisis that I wrote about last quarter culminated this quarter in the collapse and rescue of Bear Stearns (BSC), an event that I believe (though no one knows) ended the panic phase of the credit cycle. The economic consequences of curtailed credit, increased risk aversion, deleveraging, lost jobs, falling house prices, and negative equity returns remain, and are likely to take some time to play out. All of those issues have been front-page news for some time, and I believe they are well discounted by the market, which is why stocks have risen since Bear's collapse.

After an awful quarter in which our fund dropped 19.7% compared to a loss of 9.4% for the benchmark S&P 500, we have begun to perform better. In the first few weeks of the quarter, the S&P 500 is up just over 5% and we are up a bit more. Our lead widens if you look back to the Monday the Bear Stearns rescue by JPMorgan (JPM) was announced. While neither I nor anyone else knows if our period of underperformance is over, it ought to be, if valuation begins to matter more and momentum less in how the market behaves.

To put our results in some context, in our 26-year history, we have outperformed our benchmark 20 calendar years and underperformed 6 calendar years. Since I assumed sole management of the fund, we have outperformed 15 years and underperformed 2 (the last 2 obviously). On a rolling 12-month basis, we have outperformed 60% of the time since inception, and 68% of the time since I took over. Our relative performance this past quarter was the worst in our history, as we trailed the market by just over 1000 basis points. We have had 3 previous quarters where we trailed by over 700 basis points, 2 of which were in the 1989-1990 period which I have previously likened to this in terms of the economic and market backdrop. We have had 3 worse quarters in absolute terms: the quarter the market crashed in 1987, the 9/11 quarter, and the third quarter of 1990.

The reason this past quarter was our worst relative quarter is that we had back-to-back months where we were more than 400 basis points behind the market. Prior to this, we had only had 7 such months in 17 years. From the standpoint of statistics, though, we were due. Without getting into the details of the math, given our historical returns and average volatility, we should have been expected to have 10 such months since 1990, instead of the 7 we had experienced.

Why does this matter? Because when you are doing poorly, the question always comes up: Is this normal and expected, or is something wrong and should changes be made to the portfolio or the investment process? Every investor goes through periods of poor relative results. Remember the Barron's cover story on whether Warren Buffett (BRK.a) had lost it in the tech-driven market of the late 1990s? Statistically, our results, while disappointing -- and few are more disappointed than the team here at LMCM, as we are substantial investors in our products -- are consistent with what one would expect given our process, style, and historic results.

That does not mean we are satisfied with those results, or complacent about our investment process. We are not. We are always looking to improve our research methodology, our analytic efforts, and our portfolio construction process. We systematically study the methods and the portfolios of investors with great long term records for insights, and we scour the academic literature in finance, psychology, economics, and decision theory to see if any new research results in those (and other) fields can be adapted in ways that may improve our results. We study our past decisions to see if mistakes were made that can be avoided in the future. We do this whether we are performing well, or poorly.

One of the more common issues clients have raised during this period is that of risk controls, given that we have had several companies suffer dramatic and highly publicized declines, such as Countrywide Financial and Bear Stearns. Are we taking more risk than usual, or is our research not as rigorous as it used to be? Some insight into this can be gleaned by looking at the 1998-2002 period. That period is instructive because it began and ended with financial panics, similar to the credit panic today. In 1998, Russia defaulted on its debt and the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management collapsed. In 2002, high-yield bonds did likewise, and fears of deflation were rampant. During that period we had 12 stocks that declined more than 80%, including three bankruptcies. The difference between then and now is that we were outperforming then, and are not now. When you are doing poorly, the scrutiny is higher and the questions more pointed, as it should be.

What makes things difficult is that when you look at performance you are observing the results of price changes in the securities held in our portfolio. You are not observing the value of the businesses whose shares you own, merely how the market is pricing those shares at a point in time. Price and value are not only different, it is precisely that they can differ widely that creates the opportunities for value investors to earn excess returns. The greater the difference, the greater the potential return.

My friend Jeremy Hosking, who has delivered around 400 basis points per year of excess return over two decades at Marathon (in London), corrected me recently when I spoke about our underperformance. "You mean, your deferred outperformance," he said. I thought it a clever line, but it contains an important point. For investors who are trend followers, or theme driven, or who primarily build portfolios around forecasts, or who employ momentum strategies, price is dispositive. When they do badly, it is because prices moved in a direction different from what they thought. For value investors, price is one thing, and value is another. When prices move against us, it usually means that the gap between price and value is growing, and our future expected rates of return are higher.

This is especially the case in momentum-driven markets, such as we have been in for the past two years. In such markets, price trends persist, and wide gaps open up between price and value. That is why fertilizer stocks such as Potash (POT) can go from the $20s to the $200s in two years, and why Microsoft can bid over 60% more than where Yahoo! was trading and still be getting a great deal.

We looked at when momentum does well, and when valuation does well. Momentum strategies typically dominate when there is perceived distress, such as the past year or so in credit and financials and this year in equities globally (in the first quarter, not a single S&P sector was up), or there is euphoria, such as tech in the late 90s or commodities and materials today, or when valuation spreads between industries are narrow, as has been the case for most of the past two years. So it's been a great time for momentum and a lousy time for value. According to Birinyi Associates, the single worst strategy you could have followed in the first quarter would have been to buy the worst stocks of 2007. Momentum in action, just negative momentum.

I am often asked, how long do we have to wait before the fund starts to do better? The real answer here is the same as it is about most such forecasts: no one knows. I am reminded of the story Nobel Prize winner Ken Arrow tells about his experience trying to make long-range weather forecasts for the military during World War II. He told his superiors that his forecasts were so unreliable as to be useless. The word came back that the General knew his forecasts were useless, but needed them anyway for planning purposes.

For planning purposes, here is my forecast: I think we will do better from here on, and that by far the worst is behind us. I think the credit panic ended with the collapse of Bear Stearns, and credit spreads are already much improved since then. If spreads continue to come in, the write-offs at the big financials will end, and we may even have some write-ups in the second half instead of write-downs. Valuations are attractive, and valuation spreads are now about one standard deviation above normal, a point at which valuation- based strategies usually begin to work again, and momentum begins to fade (there is no evidence of the latter yet, as the old leaders continue to lead). Most housing stocks are up double digits this year despite dismal headlines, a sign the market had already priced in the current malaise. I think likewise we have seen the bottom in financials and consumer stocks, but not necessarily the bottom in headlines about the woes in those sectors. Although the economy is likely to struggle as it did in the early 1990s, the market can move higher, as it did back then.

The wild card is commodities. If commodities break, or even just stop their relentless rise, equity markets should do well. If they continue to move steadily higher, they have the potential to destabilize the global economy. We are already seeing unrest in many countries due to the soaring prices of rice and other grains. Oil has rallied $30 per barrel in the past 8 weeks on no fundamental news, save only the same stories about fears of supply disruptions. The typical fundamental drivers at the margin, such as global economic growth, miles driven, and seasonality, would all suggest prices similar to those that prevailed in early February. But none of that has mattered. I agree with George Soros that commodities are in a bubble, but it also appears he is right when he describes it as one that is still inflating, and we still have the summer driving and hurricane season with which to contend.

The weak dollar is another culprit in the commodity cycle. Oil began to rise in earnest when the dollar index broke down sharply in February. The Fed could help a lot by halting its interest rate cuts. Real short rates are now negative. It is not the price of credit that is the problem, it is its availability. If the Fed stopped cutting rates, that would help the dollar, which in turn ought to stall the commodity price rises, and thus also help the inflation picture. More technically, the Fed, in my opinion, needs to focus on the value of collateral and not on the price of credit. It appears they are beginning to do this, which is a very healthy sign. This is a topic for another letter, but anyone interested in it should consult the work of John Geanakoplos, a distinguished economics professor at Yale and an external faculty member at the Santa Fe Institute, who has written extensively on this issue, and presented to the Fed on it as well. He and Chairman Bernanke were grad students together at MIT.

Despite moving higher over the past month, the U.S. market and most others around the world are down for the year, and fear and risk aversion still predominate. Yet valuations in general are not demanding, interest rates are low, and corporate balance sheets, especially in the U.S., are in excellent shape. That sets the stage for what should be an improving environment for investors in stocks and in spread credit products, if not in government bonds where risks are high and opportunities low, in my opinion. With most investors being fearful, I think it makes sense to allocate some capital to the greedy side of that pendulum, and that means putting cash to work in equities.

Our portfolio, in my opinion, is in excellent shape, despite, or more accurately because of, its performance. Prices have declined substantially more than business values. On the Monday Bear Stearns opened for trading after its sale to JPMorgan, the stock of the latter increased in value by the rough difference between the price agreed to (then $2 per share) and the mark-to- market book value of Bear Stearns, about $90 per share including the value of their building. While the price of Bear was around $2, the market understood the tangible value was about $90, all of which accrued to JPMorgan's shareholders. While the press focused on our ownership of Bear Stearns, our position in JPMorgan was nearly three times larger. Many of our top 10 holdings sell at less than half our assessment of their intrinsic business value (defined as the present value of their future free cash flows), an unusually wide discount.

It is this assessment that makes us confident our, and your, investment will deliver results more consistent with the past 26 years than with the past two.

As always, we appreciate your support and welcome your comments.


Bill Miller
April 23, 2008

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Tilson on Financials (BAC),(LEH), (CFC), (BRK.A), (FFH)

Someone is going to be really wrong here, there is big money on both sides.



Discussed Bank of America (BAC), Lehman (LEH), Countrywide (CFC), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Fairfax Financial (FFH)

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Sherwin Williams (SHW) Earnings Call Notes

Some interesting notables from Sherwin William's (SHW) earnings call.


CFO Sean Hennessy had some of the more interesting disclosures:

* $220 million stock repurchased at an average cost of $53.69.
* Debt Expense:
Saul Ludwig – Keybanc: "I don’t understand why your interest expense, just gross interest expense that you write for the amount of debt and the rate that you pay was down in the first quarter when your debt had to be up $250 million."
Sean Hennessy: "I think when you take a look at the interest rates we went out there with some of the liquidity instruments that we have that are at favorable LIBOR rates."
Saul Ludwig – Keybanc: "So it was rates that did it?"
Sean Hennessy: "Yes."
* Total debt will be in the $950 million range vs $1.35 billion currently.

International:
Analyst for Don Carson – Merrill Lynch: "A final question on the Global Group, obviously you bought Nicco Paints last year and you have commented that would be a platform for growth in India. I was wondering if you had any further developments in any of the Asian regions, coupled with your purchase in Singapore?"

Chris Connor: "A lot of work happening in our Nicco business in India. I think it is a little premature to comment on the next steps but as Sean said, we are pleased with these acquisitions and they are continuing to move in the right direction."

Not much else. Consumer price increases go into effect in May which is why the second half of the year looks stronger than the first. The estimates given take into real pessimistic outlooks for both the residential and commercial markets for the remainder of 2008.

Lead paint received a brief discussion of current status. The only notable here is that the list is 1/5 what is was at this time last year.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHW

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Wedneday's Links

Hillary, Pennsylvania, Food, Starbucks

- People are really underestimating the importance of this

- Can you win nationally if you cannot win here?

- Why are prices so high?

- Where are the ideas?

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Smoke 'Em If You Own 'Em

Now this is an earnings release.....

Phillip Morris International (PM) reported its first Post-Altria (MO) spin quarter moments ago and investors ought to be celebrating.


The numbers:
* Diluted earnings per share of $0.89, up 29.0% from $0.69, including the items detailed on Schedule 4
* Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.89, up 30.9% from the 2007 pro-forma adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, including the items detailed on Schedule 5
* PMI increases its forecast for 2008 full-year diluted earnings per share, projecting growth of approximately 14% to 16% to a range of $3.18 to $3.24, from a revised 2007 pro-forma adjusted base of $2.79
* PMI’s new guidance reflects favorable currency, business momentum and increased reinvestment in some key markets
* PMI to acquire Interval and other trademarks in the Other Tobacco Products (OTP) category from Imperial Tobacco Group PLC for 254 million euros

“Our robust first quarter results are a terrific start out of the gate,” said Louis Camilleri, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

“Importantly, we continue to witness an improvement in our business fundamentals as evidenced by the double-digit revenue and income growth recorded in each of our geographic segments.”

PMI reaffirms its previously announced intention to pay a dividend at the initial rate of $0.46 per share per quarter, or $1.84 per common share on an annualized basis. PMI has established a dividend policy that anticipates a payout ratio of approximately 65%.

As previously announced, the $13.0 billion two-year share repurchase program for PMI is expected to begin in early May (12.3% of outstanding market cap).

This is what investors who held shares in the spin expected. Mid double digit EPS growth, a massive share repurchase and growth in markets.

This will be a great holding for a very long time...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long PM,MO

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Wednesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
PAREXEL (PRXL)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Volterra Semi (VLTR)- Collins Stewart Hold » Buy
Medco Health Solutions (MHS)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Medco Health Solutions (MHS)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
National City (NCC)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Blue Coat (BCSI)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Medco Health Solutions (MHS)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
St. Mary Lnd/Expl (SM)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Volterra Semi (VLTR)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Alliance Data (ADS)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Downey Fincl (DSL)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Syntax-Brillian (BRLC)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
National City (NCC)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Buy

Downgrades
Blue Coat (BCSI)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Apple (AAPL)- AmTech Research Buy » Neutral
Omnicell (OMCL)- Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
First Solar (FSLR)- Collins Stewart Buy » Hold
Satyam Computer (SAY)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Medcath (MDTH)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Netflix (NFLX)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Amylin Pharms (AMLN)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
VNUS Medical Tech (VNUS)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Rohm and Haas (ROH)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Jefferies Group (JEF)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Omnicell (OMCL)- Broadpoint Capital Strong Buy » Neutral
Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Sunstone Hotel (SHO)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Host Hotels (HST)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
National City (NCC)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Underperform
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
DST Systems (DST)- Merrill Lynch Buy » Neutral
Packeteer (PKTR)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Ametek (AME)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Capitol Federal (CFFN)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
PDL BioPharma (PDLI)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Sensient (SXT)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Patni Computer Sys (PTI)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Perot Systems (PER)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Accenture (ACN)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold

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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wednesday's Picks
Karen Finerman recommends Microsoft (MSFT) $30.25 ahead of earnings.

Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $160.2 also into earnings.

Pete Najarian likes EMC Corp (EMC) $15.59 but don’t chase it over $17, he counsels.

Jeff Macke thinks Yahoo (YHOO) $28.54 is a sell.

Tuesday's Results
Jeff Macke likes Hasbro (HAS) $34.65 Close $34.18 LOSS

Guy Adami prefers Intel (INTC) $22.46 Close $21.99 LOSS

Pete Najarian thinks Baker Hughes (BHI) $81.82 is a buy. Close $82.21 LOSS

Karen Finerman recommends shorting the British pound by shorting the CurrencyShares British Pound Ster. Trst (FXB) $198.62 Close $199.97 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 30-22-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 29-27
Pete Najarian= 32-23
Karen Finerman= 23-25-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Tuesday's Links

Thank-you, Baristas, A fool, Citi

- Thank you for the mention.

- This is actually a good idea at Starbucks (SBUX).

- Could he be any more gullible?

- No cut here

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Is Micheal Dell into Radioshack (RSH)?

Options activity in RadioShack (RSH) says someone might be looking at it. Rumor is it is Micheal Dell (DELL).



Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Fed Auction: Rates Climbing

Hmmmm. This marks the second auction in a row in which rates have risen.

On April 21, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.870 percent

Total propositions submitted: $88.288 billion
Total propositions accepted: $50.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.77

Number of bidders: 83

If this is telling us anything, a 50 point cut at the next meeting is out. One could even make the argument a 25 is in doubt....

Right now the dollar should be a prevailing issue..

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Sherwin Williams: The "International Coatings" Company

Sherwin Williams (SHW) reported Q1 results this morning the big number for investors was a 1.5% increase in sales to a RECORD number. For those consider Sherwin a "housing stock", the question is: With housing starts and sales plummeting, how is this possible? The short answer is that Sherwin is not a "housing stock" but a "international coatings" company.

-- Sales increased 1.5% to a record $1.782 billion
-- EPS was $.64 per share, above our current guidance range of $.56 to $.61
-- Price increases and cost reductions announced in 1Q08 will continue to be more fully implemented
-- EPS range $1.45 to $1.60 for 2Q08. Reaffirming EPS range of $4.70 to $4.85 for the full year (current PE for 2008 of 11.7 times earnings)

How did the international operations do? The Global Group’s net sales in the quarter increased 14.8% to $461.9 million (26% of total sales) when stated in U.S. dollars due primarily to volume gains, selling price increases, currency translation impact and acquisitions. Stated in U.S. dollars, segment profit of the Global Group for the quarter improved $7.7 million, or 21.7%. CEO Christopher Connor said "We continue to be pleased with the strong sales improvements of the foreign business units in our Global Group and the continued growth they have been achieving in the architectural, industrial maintenance, OEM and automotive finishes product lines."

For Q2 and the remainder of 2008, Connor said, "We expect diluted net income per common share for the second quarter to be in the range of $1.45 to $1.60 per share compared to $1.52 per share last year. For the full year 2008, we now expect a low single digit percentage increase in consolidated net sales over 2007. With annual sales at that level, we are reaffirming our March 24, 2008 guidance that our diluted net income per common share for 2008 will be in the range of $4.70 to $4.85 per share compared to $4.70 per share earned in 2007.”

SHW acquired 4.1 million shares of its common stock through open market purchases during the quarter and had remaining authorization at March 31, 2008 to purchase 22.9 million shares.

Let reverse the argument. Let's say that Sherwin is a housing stock, plain and simple. Why wouldn't you buy shares of a housing stock when the industry is in a depression and the company will still manage to break even or have a slight increase in earnings over the previous year. A year, that was a record year by the way. We are not running up against "weak comparisons". Let's also not forget the dividend increase...

Wouldn't this be the poster child for a value stock? Considering it is down 18%, clearly has very strong management, cash position, stable dividend and is a market leader in its industry?

Now, if it isn't a housing play because of its diversification of businesses then, doesn't the same argument hold true? Shouldn't we then say in that scenario that it is being lumped in with stocks it really is not that related to and for that reason (as well as the financial ones) it falls into a the "value" category?

Either way, it is just dirt cheap...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHW

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Marty Whitman's "Strategy"

Regular readers kow I am a fan of Whitman and hold a position in his Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVFX). Considering the funds 15% annual return since 1990, it just may pay to listen to what he has to say.

In a shareholder letter, Whitman disclosed the five elements he says are the key to his success. They are: buy cheap, buy quality, buy to hold, buy with minimal expenses, and buy without leverage (margin).

*Buy to hold: Stick with the stock and do not sell just because the price drops. Unless, “there has occurred a permanent impairment in underlying value" of a stock.

*Buy with minimal expenses:
Reduce taxes and trading costs by having the patience and confidence to hold. One of the largest drains on investments not considered by investors are commissions and taxes. For example: An investor has a stock that goes from $10 to $20 and sells. His return is $10, correct? No. Assuming he is in the 28% tax bracket his actual return on the sale is $7.20 ($10 - 28%) after taxes and even less when commissions are factored in. If he decides to buy the stock back he must wait for an in excess of $2.80 a share drop in order for the trading to be worth it.

*Buy without leverage:
Means do not use margin. “While leverage can increase your returns in good times,” he says , “it will dramatically increase your losses in bad times.” Much of the recent angst of investors at Bear Sterns (BSC), Merrill Lynch (MER) and other banks has been due to excessive leverage. Too much leads to forced selling into depressed markets and destroys returns.

*Buying cheap:
Cheap, or, “issues at prices that reflect substantial discounts from readily ascertainable NAVs (net asset values) … (and whose) NAVs will increase by not less than 10% per year compounded".

*Buying quality:
Whitman defines it as a strong financial position, competent management, and a business that is “understandable … plus lots of cash and a high level of insider ownership … with some type of competitive advantage”.

A very Buffett like strategy and a very simple one filled with common sense.

For more on Whitman's thinking, visit the Fund's site here:

Letters can be read here:

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long TAVFX

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AutoZone: Lampert Still Buying

On 4/17 Seas Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert, through his ESL Investments hedge fund purchased an additional 69,679 shares of AutoZone (AZO) and about $119 a share.

This brings his ownership to just over 22.9 million shares or over 36% of the total.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Tuesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Rackable Systems (RACK)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Wilmington Trust (WL)- B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Citrix Systems (CTXS)- Needham Hold » Buy
POZEN (POZN)- Broadpoint Capital Underperform » Neutral
Embarq (EQ)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Imperial Tobacco (ITY)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Comerica (CMA)- Punk, Ziegel & Co Sell » Mkt Perform
Ford Motor (F)- Soleil Sell » Buy

Downgrades
Caterpillar (CAT)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Popular Inc (BPOP)- B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral
Landauer, Inc. (LDR)- Hilliard Lyons Long-term Buy » Neutral
MeadWestvaco (MWV)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Ensco (ESV)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Intevac (IVAC)- Needham Buy » Hold
Caterpillar (CAT)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Caterpillar (CAT)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Wells Fargo (WFC)- Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
Ryder System (R)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral

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Monday, April 21, 2008

"Fast Money" for Tuesday


Tuesday's Picks
Jeff Macke likes Hasbro (HAS) $34.65

Guy Adami prefers Intel (INTC) $22.46

Pete Najarian thinks Baker Hughes (BHI) $81.82 is a buy.

Karen Finerman recommends shorting the British pound by shorting the CurrencyShares British Pound Ster. Trst (FXB) $198.62

Monday's Results
Pete Najarian thinks EMC Corp. (EMC) $15.52 is a buy ahead of earnings.Close $15.89 GAIN

Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) 27.24 as a short term trade. Close $26.43 LOSS

Both Jeff Macke and Karen Finerman recommend Microsoft (MSFT) $30.0 Close $30.42 GAIN


2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 30-21-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 29-26
Pete Najarian= 32-22
Karen Finerman= 23-24-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Monday's Links

GE, SHW, VOTE, Tilson on Borders,

- Frank Lara says buy GE

- Declares dividend

- Oh, Thank God, after this, I can now rest easy knowing who to vote for.....Are they kidding?

- Whitney Tilson has some thoughts on Borders (BGP)

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Whitney May Be Going to the Well Too Often

Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney has now taken Wells Fargo (WFC) to task. She downgraded the stock to Underperform from Perform, saying the company is under-reserved by at least $4.5 billion and will need to take a reserve "true-up" in 2008 and potentially more in 2009.

Whitney cut EPS estimate for FY2008 to $1.20 from $2.15 vs. consensus of $2.33. FY2009E goes to $2.00 from $2.15 vs. consensus of $2.65.

Whitney has been the analyst dujor after her being the first to make calls on Citigroup (C) and the rest of the financial sector. By taking on Wells Fargo, Whitney is also running a contrary opinion to Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett who has added to his position in the stock recently.

Whitney must be given credit for her calls last fall that came to fruition. One thing does tend to happen when you have a success like that. People tend to then keep going in the same direction for too long.

Wells Fargo is by far one of the most conservative banks out there and when one get's into the write-down guessing game one get's into very a very opaque area. We are getting past the large "write-down" area of this situation and now have to begin looking to the other end of it. What will be coming will be "write-ups" on the same securities that have recently decimated bank earnings.

Whitney will most likely be correct that Wells may take additional charges, but the degree to which she has predicted seems a bit excessive for a bank and management with the history of Wells Fargo.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long WFC

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Marathon Monday and Investing

"This sport is the sport to see what you are made of, so use those expert's advice, but be free to be your own champion runner, picking and choosing advice you enjoy and that works best for you." Bill Rodgers


Since today is "Marathon Monday" here in Massachusetts and also "Patriot's Day", I thought I would weave them together with investing. The quote above, taken from Bill Rodgers, a 4-time winner of the Boston Marathon, I think is perfectly suited for investors.

There are a million different books on how to make money and just as many on how to do it in stocks. What do you do? Who do you listen to? What style should you use? You must answer these question before you invest a dime. In this example I will use myself to try to illustrate my point.


"Never let any guru spoil your fun!" Bill Rodgers
The is no "one way" to success in investing. Warren Buffet did it with value investing, Boone Pickens did it in oil, Bill Gates in tech, Eddie Lampert, retail. The point here is that there are many ways to skin this cat and do not let any "guru" tell you there is only one way to do it and that your way is wrong. There probably is only one way for "you" to do it and that my be very different from me or the person living next door to you. The style you choose must fit your personality, otherwise you spend your whole investing life fighting yourself. What do I mean? If you are a big risk taker who needs constant action, being a value investor and rarely making a trade will probably lead to you jumping out of your skin as you see the day to day market action happening and you are not participating. You will be constantly itching to trade and fighting back the urge. Then, when you cannot contain it anymore, you will leap at a trade and probably end up making a mistake because you will be trading just to trade to satisfy the urge, not necessarily because it is a good trade.

I am two thing (among others). Stubborn and patient. Fortunately those traits are perfectly suited for my investing style of value investing. I need to be patient as it may take months or years for the full value of a pick of mine to be realized. I need to remain stubborn and have the courage of my convictions while those without patience bail from the stock as the talking heads on TV trash it day after day. If I am right, I will be richly rewarded for both traits. Remember, you are never "right or "wrong" on a pick because someone says you are. You are right or wrong because in the end, you are.


"My whole feeling in terms of racing is that you have to be very bold. You sometimes have to be aggressive and gamble." Bill Rodgers
While I am patient, I do require a little excitement in my portfolio. Now, my definition of this is probably much different that yours and that is ok because the key here is to find your level and stay within it. In order to get my "excitement fix", I engage in the selling of puts in my portfolio. This gives me a short term trade (usually less than a month) and a little "action". Many people are laughing at this saying to themselves "that is what he calls action?" For me, yes it is. Because I do this and do not extend myself into day trading which I just am not genetically wired to do with any consistent profit, I am very successful in this area. I usually end up netting $200-$600 a month selling these puts. Now, for me to be successful at this, I do it a certain way. Read about it here

The key here again is to find what works for you and do it, not to try to do what someone else does especially if what they do just goes against your very nature.


"One key to success is not to make your diet too complicated". Bill Rodgers
One mistake too many investors make (myself included in the past) is to try and be a little bit of everything. There a millions of ways to invest and many people are good at them and make tons of money with them. Very few are good at many of them. There is nothing wrong with finding a single style and sticking with it so that you become very proficient at it. The is more money to be made at excelling at a single style than being ok at a few of them. The more you complicate your strategy with different styles, the easier it then becomes to blend them together and water them down. For instance, value investing and growth investing do not really mesh. In many ways, they are polar opposites. If you were to try and do both, what would most likely end up happening is you would end up with a portfolio that is a little of both (not really true value or a growth stocks) and in the end, realize the return of neither strategy. I am a value investor, everything I do stems from that. I do not understand tech (can't analyze it with accuracy) so I avoid investing in it. That is not to say tech is bad, or that you cannot make money there, it is just not for me and to be honest, I do just fine without it. If I am really successful without names like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) or Microsoft (MSFT) in my portfolio, why should I add them just because someone says "you have to have tech in your portfolio". That is nonsense. One thing to keep in mind is there are about 15,000 stocks, bonds and funds you can buy, there is money to be made everywhere. If you do not get it, avoid it, you can make money somewhere else. Never buy a stock because someone says "you must diversify in tech" (or whatever investment they say you "need").

"Always take the long term view and train and race smart, with a bit of caution." Bill Rodgers
Long Term
I have said it before but I think it cannot be emphasized enough, the shorter your time frame, the more risk you assume. Taking a long term view towards your investment
s will enable you to avoid angst from the short term ups and downs that the market will inevitably throw at you. The longer your view, the less important weekly or quarterly results become to you. You will instead be focused on the big picture and the business fundamentals, which is what is the most important thing.

Train Smart
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's partner, has always said that those who are the most successful investors are always reading. He says people should read whatever they can get their hands on and read in a wide variety of subjects. The wider the field of knowledge you have, the wider you then cast your investment competency net.


Caution
As you become successful as an investor and accumulate more assets, there will be a urge to become enthralled with your success and assume it will be the "way it is". You then will be inclined to make larger bets on new positions assuming your success will naturally continue. Be careful about this as nobody is right all the time. Exercise the caution Rodgers calls for above and remember how you got to where you are and watch the urge to "over reach". This way, if you are wrong (everybody is eventually), the pain will not be so bad. You want to avoid the sickening feeling of wiping out years of profits in one bad investment.

If you take the advice Mr. Rodgers gives above, you are at least heading it the right direction. I wonder if he knew he was an investing adviser.....




Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Monday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Boyd Gaming (BYD)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Underweight » Hold
Lakeland (LBAI)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
Charles Schwab (SCHW)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Google (GOOG)- Collins Stewart Hold » Buy
BB&T Corp (BBT)- Fox Pitt Underperform » In Line
Google (GOOG)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Ultratech (UTEK)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Baxter (BAX)- William Blair Mkt Perform » Outperform
MKS Instruments (MKSI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Alliance Data (ADS)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Banco Latinoamer (BLX)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Cadbury Schweppes (CSG)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
Potlatch (PCH)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
SunTrust Banks (STI)- Robert W. Baird Underperform » Neutral
Ross Stores (ROST)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight

Downgrades
Brookline Bancorp (BRKL)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
F.N.B. Corp (FNB)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Comverge (COMV)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
POZEN (POZN)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
AbitibiBowater (ABH)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
ISIS Pharm (ISIS)- Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
Cymer (CYMI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
AmeriCredit (ACF)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Capital One (COF)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Franklin Resources (BEN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
France Telecom (FTE)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Capital One (COF)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Entergy (ETR)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Exelon (EXC)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Compass Minerals Intl (CMP)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Textron (TXT)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Techne (TECH)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
AstraZeneca (AZN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Gap Inc (GPS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Nokia (NOK)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Blue Coat (BCSI)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Nokia (NOK)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Netflix (NFLX)- Soleil Buy » Hold

Disclosure ("none" means no position):

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Sunday, April 20, 2008

"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday's Picks
Pete Najarian thinks EMC Corp. (EMC) $15.52 is a buy ahead of earnings.

Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) 27.24 as a short term trade.

Both Jeff Macke and Karen Finerman recommend Microsoft (MSFT) $30.0

Friday's Results
Jeff Macke is loading up on Microsoft (MSFT) $29.22 Close $30 GAIN

Guy Adami, too. MSFT is “definitely the play,” he said. GAIN

Pete Najarian is a buyer of Yahoo (YHOO) $28.03 Close $28.43 GAIN

Seymour looses another day because of his "short Petrobos (PBR) for the next "4 or 5 sessions".

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 29-21-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 29-25
Pete Najarian= 31-22
Karen Finerman= 22-24-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%


Disclosure ("none" means no position):

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CC + BBI = Sears + Kmart? Uh, No

The latest pondering out there has the proposed Circuit City (CC) and Blockbuster (BBI) the equivalent to the merger of Sears and Kmart that created Sears Holdings (SHLD). While a nice exercise, it lacks one thing, legitimacy.

For the best analysis of the exercise, read here:

Here is were is falls apart and it does so before it actually get started really. Sears and Kmart did the same thing, retail. Specifically clothing, lawn and garden, electronics, auto and the rest of the big box general retailer gambit. The combination of the two created the nation's third largest retailer with sales of over $50 billion a year. The combination of BBI and CC will do nothing to increase the size of either in their prospective industries.

Blockbuster rents dvd's and Circuit City sells them it their stores. They also both.....well.....they don't do anything else in common. Other that the fact they both have dvd's in their stores, the two businesses have no similarities at all, other than poor management.

A Circuit City and RadioShack (RSH) merger would be a similar comparison to Sears / Kmart as those businesses are very similar. There would be, in that case, cost savings involved with the merger that could be realized and the two businesses would have selling synergies that could boost results. Also there is the little reality that RadioShack's Julian Day could out-manage CC's Phil Schoonver in a coma.

One also has to remember the Sears / Kmart merger has produced a 10 fold increase in shareholder value, does anyone out there actually think a Circuit City / Blockbuster one will produce even remotely similar results? Anyone? Does anyone actually think they will be even profitable considering the debt load necessary to pull off the deal?

Other than the fact that both situations involved two companies merging, there are virtually no other similarities.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD, none

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David Dremen on Wealth Track (video)

Value investor David Dremen says "this is one of the worst panics I have seen". Sounds like time to buy if you adhere to Berkshire's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett's "buy fear" motto.



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Saturday, April 19, 2008

Memo To Dow's Liveris: Just Buy Sherwin Williams Already!

“We’re looking at gaps in technology offerings and [improving] channels to market. We’re looking at whether we can develop this organically, or through M&A, alliances, and joint ventures. I’m going to work all the levers I can to fill those gaps.” George Hamilton, president of Dow Coating Solutions, a division of Dow Chemical (DOW).

Enough is enough. Shares of Sherwin Williams (SHW) are practically being given away at he current price. For more on that, see this November, 2007 post. Dow has been yammering about expanding it coating business for two years now. Can anyone think of a better way to "improve the customer experience and gain a better understanding of the markets,” and “make it easier for a customer to give us more of their [coatings] purchasing dollars,” as Hamilton also said than purchase one of the world largest distributors of the stuff?

Dow says the recent formation of Hamilton's business unit for its $2.5-billion coatings business will enable above market growth in the $40 billion a year coatings sector. Hamilton's remarks about M&A are directly in line with those of Dow CEO Andrew Liveris. Let's also not forget Dow has a $9 billion dollar check coming this year from the Saudi's in conjunction with its 50% interest sale of its Commodity Chemical Business.

The cash with be there with plenty left over to swallow Sherwin.

Let's also not forget that recently Farallon Capital Management recently picked up 5.2% of Sherwin's shares. Why? Farellon says their investments are "primarily those in which a known or expected event (a merger, restructuring, recapitalization or other major change) will cause an appreciation in the value of the particular investment."

Mr. Liveris, lets just get this done....If for no other reason you'll make me look like a genius :)

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long DOW, SHW

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The Week's Insider Buys

Here are the stocks with the highest insider buying for the week.

KKR Financial Holdings L L C (KFN)- $9,744,693
General Electric Co (GE)- $1,515,460
Quicksilver Resources Inc (KWK)- $967,360
Northern Oil & Gas Inc New (NOG)- $721,600
Bcsb Bankcorp Inc (BCSB)- $714,000
Revlon Inc (REV)- $549,000
American Spectrum Realty Inc (AQQ)- $419,078
Discover Financial Services (DFS)- $360,301
Xtl Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (XTLB)- $357,590
Northstar Neuroscience Inc (NSTR)- $298,268
Arbinet Thexchange Inc (ARBX)- $287,195
Nanophase Technologies Corp (NANX)- $259,683
Provident Bankshares Corp (PBKS)- $232,100

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Friday, April 18, 2008

Barron's Picks Ups Lampert and Autozone (AZO)

Barrons has a piece on Lampert and his recent Autozone (AZO) purchases.

Below is the Barron's article:

WITH AUTOZONE ON THE REBOUND, Edward Lampert -- its biggest shareholder -- spent $94 million to top off his stake in the auto-parts retailer.

On Tuesday Lampert, well-known hedge-fund manager and chairman of Sears Holdings, disclosed that he now owns 22.9 million shares, or a 36.2% stake in the Memphis, Tenn.-based company. The billionaire investor purchased 807,442 shares from April 8 through April 15 for $94 million, an average of $116.04 a share. Lampert last reported owning 22 million shares, or a 31% stake in AutoZone, at the end of the fourth quarter.

The purchases were made indirectly through Lampert's investment vehicle ESL Investments and other subsidiaries. They were reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a 13D filing for active shareholders, although the documents said that the shares were obtained for investment purposes.

Neither Greenwich, Conn.-based ESL Investments nor AutoZone returned phone calls seeking comment on the purchases.

"In the end the most impressive thing about these transactions is that they're adding onto a large position which ESL has smartly kept for years now," says Jonathan Moreland, adviser to Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management on insider strategies.

"This has been a huge home run for Lampert, who held onto the accumulation that he undertook when the stock was trading in the mid-$20s in 2001," he says. "And for him to be topping up his investment -- and despite the large dollar value, for him it really is just topping up -- makes it more impressive."

AutoZone shares dipped to a 52-week intraday low of $103.07 on Jan. 22. The stock has since recovered, gaining $1.13 to $122.49 on Friday.

AutoZone lost 8% in the last 12 months, while peers tracked by the Dow Jones Specialty Retail Index fell 18.5%. However, their fortunes diverged since the beginning of the year, with AutoZone rising 1.2% and the Index falling 6.3%.

"Any stock that is [exposed] to consumers paring back has traded down," says Moreland. "Obviously Lampert has a very long-term view, and the stock is in a long term uptrend. The market is acting as if we're closer to the end of the turmoil and stocks that were beaten down by that issue are starting to trade up. No one can say we're absolutely out of the woods, but the smarter money is leaning long and AutoZone is a perfectly decent insider-generated candidate for investors looking to play the longer term bet that the turmoil is over."

The Street may not be as sanguine as Lampert. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average rate the stock at Hold or the equivalent, with a 12-month target price of $130.20.

AutoZone currently has a Thomson Insider Rating of 7 (on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most bullish), as compared with the Retail Goods industry average of 5.

Joshua Hong, director of research for OwnershipAnalyzer.com, wrote in an email to Barron's Online that while Lampert's purchase was positive, other institutional ownership data was neutral.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):None

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Weekend Reading At VIN

Here are the week's top ten at Value Investing News

1. Best Buy Management
(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

In the sequel to the Right Price Checklist Management article I go over Best Buy's management and reveal their returns fueled by debt and unusually large amount of related party transactions

2. Whitney Tilson: Let the herd stampede first before making your move
(via www.ft.com)

Without doubt, timely and democratic access to financial and market information contributes to smoothly functioning financial markets. But it’s worth asking whether the ubiquity of such information today is a friend or foe of sound investment decision-making. For all but the most active professional traders, the answer is often “no”.

3. Right Price Checklist: Management
(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

In the third part of the Right Price Checklist series, I throughly go over how to analyze management.

The article details how to analyze management's honesty and competence and how well they communicate with shareholders.

4. 5 Tips For Choosing Small Cap Value Stocks
(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Small cap stocks need not be hot tip penny stocks or speculative growth stories based on an idea and a prayer. There are plenty of quality, undervalued small cap stocks out there, and this article tells you how to find them.

5. Templeton's Mobius Says Credit Crisis Is Near End
(via www.bloomberg.com)

Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius said the global credit-market crisis that has caused $245 billion dollars of losses at banks and brokerages is ``near the end.''

6. David Dreman : Looking Beyond the Bailout
(via www.forbes.com)

Frightening as the markets look today, there will come a time when the liquidity crisis ends and today's prices for bank stocks look, in retrospect, like bargains.


7. James Altucher : Why insiders are betting on homebuilders
(via www.ft.com)

A few weeks ago I got an e-mail saying: “Stop with the personal sh*t and give us more stock tips.” So today’s article is ALL STOCKS.


8. What Warren thinks...
(via money.cnn.com)

With Wall Street in chaos, Fortune naturally went to Omaha looking for wisdom. Warren Buffett talks about the economy, the credit crisis, Bear Stearns, and more.


9. Mark Sellers : Take financial talking-heads with a grain of salt
(via www.ft.com)

Everyone acts in his or her self-interest. This is a key facet of humanity, and keeps our society moving forward. Think about that the next time you make an investment decision. As an investor, it is in your interest for your portfolio to do as well as possible with the least risk possible. Unfortunately, this is not the goal of most of the people you may rely on for news and advice.

10. 5th Annual Whitman Day: Breakfast Panel with Martin J. Whitman and Richard Haydon
(via whitman.syr.edu)

Collectively, Martin J. Whitman ’49 BS and Richard Haydon ’66 BA (A&S) have a century of Wall Street experience—and that fact is evident in the wisdom and insight revealed in this wide-ranging panel discussion.

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CEO's Willl Never Learn (MER),(GE),(WB)

“We deliberately raised more capital than we lost last year ... we believe that will allow us to not have to go back to the equity market in the foreseeable future,” Merrill Lynch (MER) CEO John Thain

This statement comes the same week both G. Kennedy Thompson at Wachovia (WB) and Jeff Immelt at GE (GE) were force fed prior statements along the same lines and shares in their companies were savaged. Thompson said Wachovia's dividend was safe and Immelt said GE's earnings were "in the bag".

What does Thain gain with the proclamation? Nothing. No one believes what comes out of banker's mouths today anyway, why say it?

It get's even worse when just hours later he clarified the statement to mean "raise additional cash through equity". Super, nice job John. Close the door and then go back and open it up a crack.

Now he either will be forced to take a bad deal on a debt offering or asset sale to raise cash if necessary in order to save face. If he does another equity or preferred sale, his reputation at the bank and with shareholders is crushed even before it has a chance to grow. Let's say he is right? So what? That and $5 will get him a latte' and Starbucks (SBUX). Had Merrill be forced to tap equity markets again, it would have been bad but now if they do, Thain will most likely be getting his resume updated.

Thain had absolutely nothing to gain by making the proclamation.......nothing. He now has created an atmosphere in which those so inclined (CNBC's Charlie Gasparino) are going to make sport out predicting when Merrill will need more cash and how they will get it.

I always thought rule #1 was "under promise and over deliver". Thain ought to see the example set by Berkshire's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long WB, None

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Friday's Links

More Krugman, Borders, Tech, ReadBurner

- This one is priceless..

- No, not there, how about Central Mass?

- The reason tech companies dominance grows shorter..

- Anyone use this?

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Harley Davidson Earnigs Call Notables..

Harley Davidson (HOG) gave more insight into the primary reason earnings are dropping in the earnings call.

Financial Services:
"Harley-Davidson Financial Services delivered first quarter operating income of $34.9 million a decrease of $24 million or 40.8% compared to last year’s first quarter. This decrease is primarily due in a reduction in income from securitization. As most of you are aware the first quarter was a challenging time in the securitization markets. In the first quarter of 2007 HDFS sold $540 million of retail motorcycle loans. As part of the transaction HDFS retained $54 million of the subordinated securities on its balance sheet and recognized a loss totaling $5.4 million. This compares to an $800 million securitization transaction with a gain of $13 million during last year’s first quarter. The loss in the first quarter of 2008 was driven by increased securitization funding costs due to capital market volatility and expectation of higher credit losses compared to historical trends."

"HDFS originated $518 million in retail motorcycle loans in the first quarter of 2008 compared to $630 million in the first quarter of 2007."

"In terms of credit performance the 30 plus day delinquency rate for managed retail motorcycle loans was 4.78% at the end of the first quarter of 2008 compared to 4.08% at the end of the first quarter of 2007. Consistent with seasonal trends over the past several years’ delinquencies declined from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2008 and credit losses on managed retail motorcycle loans were 2.71% for the first quarter of 2008 compared to 2.28% for the same period last year."

"During the quarter the percentage of subprime loans outstanding remain within our historical growth range of 25 to 30% of managed retail loan receivables."

Pretty straight forward stuff. Delinquencies have risen but not by any means at an alarming rate. The real problem is the ability for HOG to sell the loans at a profit. This is not any different than any other firm trying to sell securitized loans.

The key is that they are not having any problems funding additional loans and are not being forced to hold more than they want...

This will just take some time.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long HOG

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Citigroup's Flush

A plan seems to be emerging from Citigroup (C). If nothing else, the credit situation was not a worse as people feared.

Citigroup reported a net loss of $5.1 billion, or $1.02 a share, for Q1 with more than $10 billion of write-downs. Revenue fell 48% to $13.22 billion. They took $6 billion of pretax write-downs and credit costs on sub-prime loans. The firm also announced write-downs of $3.1 billion on funded and unfunded highly leveraged finance commitments, a downward credit value adjustment of $1.5 billion related to exposure to monoline insurers, write-downs of $1.5 billion on auction rate securities inventory, and a $3.1 billion increase in credit costs in its global consumer business.

Citi also said they have already sold $4 billion in leveraged loans in April. CFO Gary Crittendon said there will be no "transformational" assets sales (they will sell some, just nothing big) in 2008, no more dividend cuts, and no more equity raising. About 9,000 additional jobs, on top of the 4,000 already announced are going to be cut.

In short, things seem to have bottomed. This is not to say it is a shot up from here. My guess is thing languish for a while until there is some trust back in the financials. The past month has seem an avalanche of bad news out there and as a group the financials have taken the hit and equity prices have remained stable.

Now we look to next quarter for more stabilization and perhaps improvement. If there is improvement, it will be small. Just no further billion dollar write down would be huge at this point. Investors seem to have much more clarity as to both what is happening inside the bank and in the environment it operates in.

For long term folks, it would seem a good time to get in.
Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long C

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades



Upgrades
Lam Research (LRCX)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
IBM (IBM)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Swift Energy (SFY)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Newfield Expl (NFX)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Venoco (VQ)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Cepheid (CPHD)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Cimarex (XEC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Forest Oil (FST)- UBS Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
eBay (EBAY)- AmTech Research Buy » Neutral
Emulex (ELX)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Artes Medical (ARTE)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
j2 Global (JCOM)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Caribou Coffee (CBOU)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
PF Chang's (PFCB)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Cosi (COSI)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Illinois Tool (ITW)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Astoria Fincl (AF)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Intl Paper (IP)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Esterline Techs (ESL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Procter & Gamble (PG)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
UST Inc (UST)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sonic Automotive (SAH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Arcelor Mittal (MT)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
Spansion (SPSN)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Old Dominion (ODFL)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Badger Meter (BMI)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Underperform

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Thursday, April 17, 2008

"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday's Picks
Thursday's Results
Guy Adami likes Microsoft (MSFT) $28.95 Close $29.22 GAIN

Carter Worth says International Coal Group (ICO) $7.20 is a buy as a laggard in the red hot coal space. Close $7.70 GAIN

Pete Najarian prefers Petrohwak Energy (HK) $23.18 which he believes has room on the upside. Close $23.31 GAIN

Tim Seymour recommends shorting Petrobras (PBR) $122.84 for the next 4 or 5 sessions.
Close $125.49 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 28-21-1
Tim Seymore= 15-11
Guy Adami= 28-25
Pete Najarian= 30-22
Karen Finerman= 22-24-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Thursday's Links

Krugman, Marriage and Divorce, iPhone, Text Alert

- Is there a more dishonest person alive?

- This was fascinating..

- More price cuts

- This is one of those things you can't help but ask, "what took so long?"

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