Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Fannie / Freddie and Congress..2004

Some interesting statements about Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) from late 2004 from Democrats and Republicans.



What did we do before we could catch these guys on YouTube

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Sergeant Pepper and Housing

"It was 9 years ago today, Sergeant Clinton told the banks to lend" " that this all began..

From the NY Times, 9-30-1999

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation (FNM) is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates -- anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.

''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''

Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.

''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.''

Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings.

Fannie Mae officials stress that the new mortgages will be extended to all potential borrowers who can qualify for a mortgage. But they add that the move is intended in part to increase the number of minority and low income home owners who tend to have worse credit ratings than non-Hispanic whites.

Home ownership has, in fact, exploded among minorities during the economic boom of the 1990's. The number of mortgages extended to Hispanic applicants jumped by 87.2 per cent from 1993 to 1998, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. During that same period the number of African Americans who got mortgages to buy a home increased by 71.9 per cent and the number of Asian Americans by 46.3 per cent.

In contrast, the number of non-Hispanic whites who received loans for homes increased by 31.2 per cent.

Despite these gains, home ownership rates for minorities continue to lag behind non-Hispanic whites, in part because blacks and Hispanics in particular tend to have on average worse credit ratings.

In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups. sergent

The change in policy also comes at the same time that HUD is investigating allegations of racial discrimination in the automated underwriting systems used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the credit-worthiness of credit applicants.


Hat Tip to Trading Goddess for finding this



Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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Harley Davidson Introduces 3 Wheel Model

Harley Davidson (HOG) talked to its customers and discovered that many would rather be on three-wheelers than two-wheelers. So, they responded..


Called the Tri Glide Ultra Classic, it is an answer for bikers seeking more comfort and stability on the road. Harley-Davidson research indicates more baby boomers and women are interested in touring bikes, but they don't want an 800-pound two-wheeler to get the best of them.

Here is a video of the news bike. The video is a little rough but gives god detail on the bike.


This is a great move. It instantly expands their market as the boomers age, still love riding but felt unsure about being able to handle their bikes. With things slowing Harley has responded by producing more Sportsters, smaller more fuel efficient models under $10,000 and now the 3 wheeled bike to expand its older demographic.

Is it a magic pill for slumping sales? No. Will it help? Most definitely. Study after study has shown that riders, once they begin riding Harley Davidson, do not switch to other brands. The cheaper Sportster will reduce the barrier to entry for younger riders and the three wheeler will keep them riding longer. Both are positive trends.




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long HOG
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Latest Book: Mr. Market Miscalculates

I have been nailing the "books for the times" lately.

Last week I reviewed "Once in Golconda"
about the 1920's and 1930's on Wall St. If you haven't read it, do it.



Now I have been given an advance copy of "Mr. Market Miscalculates" by James Grant.

Essentially it is a collection of essay's written in Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

About 1/4 of the way through it and already wishing I had subscribe to Grant's years ago, as the current conditions were almost expected by the author. More when finished. You can pre-order the book here





Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Tuesday's Links

NY Times, SEC, Bloomberg, Blackberry

- Once again, serious flaws in a story

- Missed a host of red flags at Bear Sterns

- FDIC corrects "erroneous" story

- The latest model


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Monday, September 29, 2008

Where is Armageddon?

OK, let's ignore the politics. If Democrats want to pass this they can, they have the majority. Period. Republican's are powerless and will not block a vote. Anything else is just games.

So, will it pass? Yes. As the market drops, Main St. will feel the pain and the public opinion polls will turn.

When that happens, everything let's loose and we rally. In the meantime you have GE trading at decade lows yielding 5%, Dow Chemical at 5 year lows yielding 5.5% and the list goes on.

The point is you have people panicking out there. Panic leads to selling en mass and that means bargain basement prices.

Think about it. we have heard daily for 2 weeks now that something has to get done TODAY or we risk armageddon. Yet, nothing has been done, Wachovia (WB) and Washington Mutual (WM) were absorbed by Citi (C) and JP Morgan (JPM) respectively i na very orderly manner. No deposits were lost and there was no run on the bank when the news was announced. An 8% drop in the DOW (.DJI) today isn't even in the top 5 worst days.

There are deals out there for the patient investor. Pick strong companies with low debt and strong balance sheets. The yield alone out there have not been seen in a long time..

Something will get done, just pick at the bargains until it does..

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GE,Dow,C, none
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Starbucks and Insanity (UPDATE)

Here, in a nutshell is Starbucks (SBUX) problem.

So, Starbucks has a policy that it knows is injuring customers, yet refuses to change the policy. I guess them recognizing $5 coffee in an economic malaise won't sell isn't going to happen anytime soon.

Arthur F Licata, an attorney in Boston has a case against Starbucks that make you questions the thought process in Seattle.

Starbuck has a policy that when you hand them your cup (the travel mugs) to be filled, they do not put the top back on the 185 degree coffee that sits inside. What is happening? People are getting burned. In Licata's case, his client was burned when the cup the barrista placed on the counter began to tip. In an effort to catch it, the barrista ended up shoving the cup and its contents into the face of his client who's eyes were burned to the point she no longer has any peripheral vision. What stuck Licata is that through his investigation, this is a common occurrence. Whether it be employees spilling on customers, customers spilling on themselves or customers spilling on other customers, it is happening daily, yet the policy remains.

I know some people are going to scream "McDonalds coffee lawsuit". I will simply say those who mock that suit have no knowledge of the details of it or the injuries suffered by the old woman or McDonalds role in them. I will also say that McDonalds altered it policy, to date, Starbucks has not.

When I buy coffee at Starbucks and they make it for me, they place the top on.

What does this illustrate? Arrogance. Howard Schultz in a recent interview called the coffee at McDonald's (MCD) and Dunkin' Donuts, both of whom are serving more people every day, "swill". I have never heard a CEO so insulting of another company's product before, especially when their results are lapping his.

Despite store traffic declining for over a year, Starbucks only recently acknowledged its prices were affecting its business may made at least token efforts to make its products more affordable.

Both episodes go to a mindset. "We do what we do". If you think we are too expensive or like the other coffee, you just aren't cultured or are to cheap. We don't put cap on your travel mug, if you get burned, too bad.

Call it hubris, stubbornness, arrogance or whatever you want, just don't call it common sense.

UPDATE:
Here is an article about advertising companies walking away from a "very difficult client". One agency's head was actually a friend of Howard Schultz


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long MCD, none
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Circuit City: Bring Out Your Dead!!

Anyone remember the famous Monty Python skit? See it below

Circuit City (CC) is the old guy on the being carried by John Cleese.


Circuit City Stores reported a wider quarterly loss and withdrew its financial outlook on Monday as the electronics retailer reviews its business, sending its shares down 10% to $1.26 a share.

Last week announced
the overdue firing of CEO Phil Schoonover, also said it would suspend store openings beginning with its 2010 fiscal year to focus on turning around its operations.

Circuit City has reported losses for five of the past six quarters, and sales have dropped for more than a year. Q2 net loss was $239.2 million, or $1.45 a share, compared with a loss of $62.8 million, or 38 cents a share, a year earlier. Total sales fell almost 10% to $2.39 billion and same-store sales, fell 13.3%.

A year ago in a post
commenting on then rumors Sears Holdings (SHLD) Eddie Lampert might make a bid for the company I said, "Lampert, based on his past history would more likely wait for these buffoons to run it into bankruptcy and pick it up for a fraction of today's price".

I doubt Lampert wants it, but if he does, bankruptcy is right around the corner..

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD,None
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It's Citi and Wachovia & Ken Lewis Overpaid

CNBC's Charlie Gasparino this morning called the merger "like two ugly girls kissing".

Press Release


The WSJ Reports

Citigroup Inc. agreed to acquire Wachovia Corp.'s banking operations in another deal orchestrated by the federal government -- this time by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and one in which the agency could be on the hook for loan losses.

The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department were also part of the effort, another sign of how proactive the government has been in preventing ailing financial firms from failing and instead pushing for stronger firms to acquire some assets of the weaker companies.

Citigroup also said it plans to sell $10 billion of common stock and slash its quarterly dividend in half to 16 cents a share to maintain a strong capital position, in the wake of its takeover of Wachovia's banking operations.


They continued:

Over the past year, Citigroup has racked up more than $40 billion in write-downs and other losses stemming from the mortgage meltdown. The company was a leader in creating and marketing some of the exotic securities that have been at the heart of the credit crunch. Its stock price has shriveled to less than $20, compared to more than $50 early last summer.

Citigroup is buying what the FDIC said is "the bulk of" Wachovia's assets and liabilities, including five depository institutions, and assumes the company's senior and subordinated debt. Not being sold are the A.G. Edwards brokerage division and Evergreen Investments operations.

The FDIC also has entered into a loss-sharing arrangement on a pre-identified pool of loans under which Citigroup will absorb up to $42 billion of losses on a $312 billion pool of loans, with the FDIC covering anything beyond that. Citigroup has granted the FDIC $12 billion in preferred stock and warrants to compensate the FDIC for bearing the risk.


Citi, like JP Morgan (JPM), got a lot for almost nothing. Citi was desperate to expand its deposit footprint and this deal does it, very cheaply.

Now that we look at these recent deals, it does appear more evident every day that Ken Lewis and Bank of America (BAC) vastly overpaid for Merrill Lynch (MER). Assets are being had at "give away" prices currently and Lewis did pay a huge premium to the then Merrill price when he agree to a deal. He reasoned at the time the price was cheap and wanted to snap it up. But, the questions needs to be asked, snap it up from whom?

Merrill was not actively being pursued by other institutions. I think no one could argue Lewis did not grossly overpay for Countrywide (CFC) when he both made his first investment and finally when he purchased the rest of it, he could have bought it out of bankruptcy had he waited.

Lewis has the deposit base to absorb the deal without hurting shareholders badly, the problem it that the upside to both deals is limited at best.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long C, none
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"Bearing Down on Short Sellers" Article From 1932

Here is an article from 1932 from "Colliers". You could simply change the date to 2008. Funny how things really do not change that much.






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Wells Fargo in Lead For Wachovia, "Bailout" Necessary?

At the rate this is going, the "bailout" may not be necessary.

Last week JP Morgan (JPM) swallowed Washington Mutual (WM) and now it appears Wells Fargo (WFC) has the inside track to acquire Wachovia (WB).

The WSJ Reports:

The troubles at Wachovia, based in Charlotte, N.C., and of Fortis, based in Utrecht and Brussels, signal the first time that major commercial banks are now at risk of being forced into sales or breakups since the onset of the credit crisis a little more than a year ago. Wachovia is a big lender to midsize U.S. companies, and at the end of last year, it oversaw a commercial-loan portfolio totaling $190 billion. In the real-estate industry, Wachovia had signed off on $35 billion in loans.

Federal officials are involved in the Wachovia talks and were believed to be pushing the bank to seal a deal fast to avoid further pressure to its deposit base. While Wachovia is much larger than Washington Mutual in terms of assets, Wachovia's business mix is broader, including a strong commercial bank and solid securities brokerage.


What is happening is that we are on a path to fewer, much larger banks that face more regulation. The next on the list is National City (NCC). Both Wachovia and WaMu could have survived until a gov't plan was enacted, but depositor panic, rushing to withdraw insured funds lead to a massive deterioration of the capital bases of both, forcing a sale. Short sellers it should be noted, had nothing to do with it.

So, if WaMu is gone, and Wachovia will be soon and not a single deposit has been lost, do we really need the bailout plan? Do we? I'm not sure.

If we simply better funded the FDIC and raised the deposit insurance to $250,000 per account, then we would stop the rush to withdraw we are seeing. Had we stopped the bank run last week, WaMu might have survived. Wachovia would most likely also. Now, that does not mean that either banks shareholders would have seen appreciation in shares anytime in the near future. But, do we really need to money now that the market is seemingly taking care of it?

We also have word
that the recent investment in Goldman Sachs (GS) by Berkshire's (BRK.A) is going to be used to buy????? Anyone??? Troubled mortgage assets from banks, up to $50 billion worth. These are some of the same assets, buy the way, that the gov't is looking at buying.

We have also hear that hedge funds have been raising billion to do the very same thing. It would seem that the specter of gov't intervention has spurned those "waiting for rock bottom pricing" to now act before those assets were scoop buy Washington.

We may still need a gov't package but my feeling it that is may just need to be a fraction of what was talked about last week. Perhaps just the threat of losing a bargain will be enough to shake the buyers out of the trees. It really does not matter who does the buying, it is the action of it that will solve the problem.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long WFC,GS, None
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Monday's Links

Home sales, Netflix, Jim Rodgers, Dems

- Now, if they can just get financing..

- Pulling away from Blockbuster

- Of course Jim is against it, he is short everything

- For the FT to scold Dems....wow..this is like getting yelled at by a parent in public..


Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Sunday, September 28, 2008

Book Review: Ben Bernanke's Fed

For those who who wonder what the Fed is and how it does what it does, I found the perfect primer.

First, the boilerplate stuff from the publisher:
Product Description
Ben Bernanke's swearing in as Federal Reserve chairman in 2006 marked the end of Alan Greenspan's long, legendary career. To date, the new chair has garnered mixed reviews. Business economists see him as the best-qualified successor to Greenspan, while many traders and investors worry that he's too academic for the job. Meanwhile, ordinary Americans do not even know who he is.

How will Bernanke's leadership affect the Fed's actions in the coming years? How will Bernanke build on Greenspan's success, but also put his own stamp on the Fed? What will all this imply for businesses and investors? In Ben Bernanke's Fed, Ethan Harris provides exceptional insights into these crucial issues.

Engaging and discerning, this book demystifies the man who has stepped into what many describe as the second most powerful job in America.

About the Author
Ethan S. Harris is a member of Lehman Brothers' Global Economics team. A U.S. chief economist, he started his career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, joining Lehman Brothers in 1996.

So, it it worth it. In a word, yes. Now, if you are a veteran Fed watcher and have an advanced degree in Economics, then this may be a bit rudimentary for you. But, if you are like the overwhelming majority if people who are mystified by the Fed and its operations, this book is perfect.

Harris also does a nice job explaining the economic concepts that decisions are based on. For those without a background in economics, fear not, Harris explains everything he write about for all to understand.

Harris goes into detail on Ben Bernake's background and education and illustrates how that influences his belief in how the Fed should operate today. Harris also examines his predecessor Alan Greenspan's tenure as he tracks the current economic conditions we find ourselves in. He does a nice job laying out the Greenspan years without sounding too harsh or complimentary, it is a truly balanced look.

He then looks into Bernanke's response to events as they unfolded both when he was a Fed Governor and as its leader. The only regret is the the books ends in the spring of 2008, too early to address the climax of events in capital markets we witness today....perhaps a sequel?

For those interested, you can buy the book through this link.



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Saturday, September 27, 2008

SEC Lambasted on Bear Sterns

Like I've said repeatedly, time for Cox to go..




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More Thoughts on GE

This is a follow up to Friday's post on buying GE (GE).




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GE
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Friday, September 26, 2008

The Week's Top Stories at VIN

the week's top stories at Value Investing News

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Video: How Did The Housing Bust Happen?

This is eye opening.......




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Buying GE...

Safe 5% yield and 10 times earnings....picked up some for $24.77 a share Friday morning.

I first got real interested in GE (GE) last week when shares hit $23 and change but did not pull the trigger.

Yesterday, GE lowered guidance for the quarter and the year. Not real surprising given conditions out there but two questions I has were answered. Was the dividend safe, and was their 'AAA' rating safe. The answer to both was yes.

Why does 'AAA' matter? Consider there are only 6 companies that carry that rating, Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), GE (GE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Exxon (XOM), and Toyota (TM). It simply means safety and low cost of capital. In these times, with the inevitable credit contraction with us for years, a 'AAA' rating will take on more importance.

The dividend. I like high, safe dividends. I currently hold Altria (MO) at 6%, Phillip Morris International (PM) at 4%, Dow Chemical (DOW) at 5%, Wells Fargo (WFC) at 4% dividend yields. Now we'll ad GE at 5%. All of the above had dividends that, were they to be forced to be cut, simply would mean economic conditions have deteriorated to the point that the actual dividend cut would be the least of all our worries.

Watch the following video from Thursday. Please ignore CNBC's Melissa Francis saying GE Capital was a "buy to sell" model. It isn't (that has been discussed here on this blog before as a reason to maybe buy GE shares). It is a "buy to hold" and Immelt corrects her...how could she get that wrong? She just interviewed her boss and had the business model for the company's main profit driver wrong....I bet it will come up at review time. Anyway, the video.



Here is an interview with Charlie Rose from March:


I think it is safe to say Immelt as GE (along with virtually every economist and other business leader) underestimated to the scope of the current crisis. That being said, I can't single him out as "being wrong" about the future. But, if we look at the various businesses, one must be encouraged. GE is global in scope and will benefit from global growth. It's financial services, being hit hard by the crisis, still maintain 'AAA' ratings despite the turmoil. That means very attractive opportunities will arise for GE that other lenders will not get, or be able to fund.

Now, the Immlet bashers will point to thew stock being near $60 a share in 2000 (yielding less than 1%) and want his head for its fall. But, GE made $1.27 a share that year. So, if you paid 47 times those earnings in 2000, Immelt is not the problem, you are. Paying 47 times earnings for a conglomerate the size of GE, is well ,for lack of a better word, just moronic. But, 10 times earnings with a 5% yield?

Essentially a bet on GE at this time is a bet on the global growth story, at a very good price, and a 5% yield. It may take some time to pan out, but i think it will, handsomely.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GE,MO,PM,WFC,DOW
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What Happened?

I found this ober at Freakonomics.

It is a great blow by blow. Original post

The F.A.Q.’s of Lehman and A.I.G.
By Douglas W. Diamond and Anil K. Kashyap
A Guest Post

For most of the last 20 years we have been studying banks, monetary policy, and financial crises. So for us the events of the last year have been especially fascinating.

The last 10 days have been the most remarkable period of government intervention into the financial system since the Great Depression. In talking with reporters and our noneconomist friends, we have been besieged with questions about several aspects of these events. Here are a few of the most frequently asked questions with our best answers.

1) What has happened that is so remarkable?

This episode started when the Treasury nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on September 8. Their combined assets are over $5 trillion. These firms help guarantee most of the mortgages in the United States. The Treasury only got authority from Congress to take this action in July, and in seeking the authority had insisted that no intervention would be needed.

The Treasury has replaced the management of both companies and will presumably oversee their operation. This decision marked an acknowledgment by the government that the mortgage market and the institutions to make it operate in the U.S. are broken.

On Monday, the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history was made by Lehman Brothers. Lehman had over $600 billion in assets and 25,000 employees. (The largest previous filing was WorldCom, whose assets just prior to bankruptcy were just over $100 billion.)

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve made a bridge loan to A.I.G., the largest insurance company in the world; perhaps best known to most of the world as the shirt sponsor of Manchester United soccer club, A.I.G. has assets of over $1 trillion and over 100,000 employees worldwide. The Fed has the option to purchase up to 80 percent of the shares of A.I.G., is replacing A.I.G.’s management, and is nearly wiping out A.I.G.’s existing shareholders. A.I.G. is to be wound down by selling its assets over the next two years. (Don’t worry, Man U will be fine.) The Fed has never asserted its authority to intervene on this scale, in this form, or in a firm so far removed from its own supervisory authority.

2) Why did these things happen?

The common denominator in all three cases was the inability of the firms to retain financing. The reasons, though, differed in each case.

The Fannie and Freddie situation was a result of their unique roles in the economy. They had been set up to support the housing market. They helped guarantee mortgages (provided they met certain standards), and were able to fund these guarantees by issuing their own debt, which was in turn tacitly backed by the government. The government guarantees allowed Fannie and Freddie to take on far more debt than a normal company. In principle, they were also supposed to use the government guarantee to reduce the mortgage cost to the homeowners, but the Fed and others have argued that this hardly occurred. Instead, they appear to have used the funding advantage to rack up huge profits and squeeze the private sector out of the “conforming” mortgage market. Regardless, many firms and foreign governments considered the debt of Fannie and Freddie as a substitute for U.S. Treasury securities and snapped it up eagerly.

Fannie and Freddie were weakly supervised and strayed from the core mission. They began using their subsidized financing to buy mortgage-backed securities which were backed by pools of mortgages that did not meet their usual standards. Over the last year, it became clear that their thin capital was not enough to cover the losses on these subprime mortgages. The massive amount of diffusely held debt would have caused collapses everywhere if it was defaulted upon; so the Treasury announced that it would explicitly guarantee the debt.

But once the debt was guaranteed to be secure (and the government would wipe out shareholders if it carried through with the guarantee), no self-interested investor was willing to supply more equity to help buffer the losses. Hence, the Treasury ended up taking them over.

Lehman’s demise came when it could not even keep borrowing. Lehman was rolling over at least $100 billion a month to finance its investments in real estate, bonds, stocks, and financial assets. When it is hard for lenders to monitor their investments and borrowers can rapidly change the risk on their balance sheets, lenders opt for short-term lending. Compared to legal or other channels, their threat to refuse to roll over funding is the most effective option to keep the borrower in line.

This was especially relevant for Lehman, because as an investment bank, it could transform its risk characteristics very easily by using derivatives and by churning its trading portfolio. So for Lehman (and all investment banks), the short-term financing is not an accident; it is inevitable.

Why did the financing dry up? For months, short-sellers were convinced that Lehman’s real-estate losses were bigger than it had acknowledged. As more bad news about the real estate market emerged, including the losses at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, this view spread.

Lehman’s costs of borrowing rose and its share price fell. With an impending downgrade to its credit rating looming, legal restrictions were going to prevent certain firms from continuing to lend to Lehman. Other counterparties that might have been able to lend, even if Lehman’s credit rating was impaired, simply decided that the chance of default in the near future was too high, partly because they feared that future credit conditions would get even tighter and force Lehman and others to default at that time.

A.I.G. had to raise money because it had written $57 billion of insurance contracts whose payouts depended on the losses incurred on subprime real-estate related investments. While its core insurance businesses and other subsidiaries (such as its large aircraft-leasing operation) were doing fine, these contracts, called credit default swaps (C.D.S.’s), were hemorrhaging.

Furthermore, the possibility of further losses loomed if the housing market continued to deteriorate. The credit-rating agencies looking at the potential losses downgraded A.I.G.’s debt on Monday. With its lower credit ratings, A.I.G.’s insurance contracts required A.I.G. to demonstrate that it had collateral to service the contracts; estimates suggested that it needed roughly $15 billion in immediate collateral.

A second problem A.I.G. faced is that if it failed to post the collateral, it would be considered to have defaulted on the C.D.S.’s. Were A.I.G. to default on C.D.S.’s, some other A.I.G. contracts (tied to losses on other financial securities) contain clauses saying that its other contractual partners could insist on prepayment of their claims. These cross-default clauses are present so that resources from one part of the business do not get diverted to plug a hole in another part. A.I.G. had another $380 billion of these other insurance contracts outstanding. No private investors were willing to step into this situation and loan A.I.G. the money it needed to post the collateral.

In the scramble to make good on the C.D.S.’s, A.I.G.’s ability to service its own debt would come into question. A.I.G. had $160 billion in bonds that were held all over the world: nowhere near as widely as the Fannie and Freddie bonds, but still dispersed widely.

In addition, other large financial firms — including Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco), the largest bond-investment fund in the world — had guaranteed A.I.G.’s bonds by writing C.D.S. contracts.

Given the huge size of the contracts and the number of parties intertwined, the Federal Reserve decided that a default by A.I.G. would wreak havoc on the financial system and cause contagious failures. There was an immediate need to get A.I.G. the collateral to honor its contracts, so the Fed loaned A.I.G. $85 billion.

3) Why did the Treasury and Fed let Lehman fail but rescue Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and A.I.G.?

We have already explained why Fannie, Freddie, and A.I.G. were supported. In March, Bear Stearns lost its access to credit in almost the same fashion as Lehman; yet Bear was rescued and Lehman was not.

Bear Stearns was bailed out for two reasons. One was that the Fed had very imperfect information about what was going on at Bear. The Fed was not Bear’s regulator, the amount of publicly available information was limited, and its staff was not versed in all of the ways in which Bear might have been connected to other parts of the financial system.

The second problem was that Bear’s counterparties in many transactions were not prepared for the sudden demise of Bear. A Bear bankruptcy might have triggered a wave of forced selling of collateral that Bear would have given its counterparties. Given the potential chaos that would have resulted from Bear Stearns filing for bankruptcy, the Fed had little choice but to engineer a rescue. In doing so, the Fed argued that the rescue was a rare, perhaps once-in-a-generation, event.

When Bear was rescued, the Fed created a new lending facility to help provide bridge financing to other investment banks. The new lending arrangement was proposed precisely because there were concerns that Lehman and other banks were at risk for a Bear-like run. Since March, the Fed had also studied what to do if this were to happen again; it concluded that if it modified its lending facility slightly, it could withstand a bankruptcy; it made these changes to the lending facility on Sunday night.

Once the Fed had made these changes and determined that it and the others in the market had an understanding of the indirect or “collateral damage” effects of a bankruptcy, it could rely on the protections of the bankruptcy code to stop the run on Lehman, and to sell its operating assets separately from its toxic mortgage-backed assets.

Against this backdrop, if the government had rescued Lehman, it would have repudiated the claim that the Bear rescue was extraordinary; it would have also conceded that in the six months since Bear failed, neither the new facility that it set up nor the other steps to make markets more robust were reliable. Essentially, the Fed and the Treasury would have been admitting that they had lied or were incompetent in stabilizing the financial system — or both.

It was not surprising that they drew the line at helping Lehman. Based on all the publicly available information, this was clearly the right thing to do.

4) I do not work at Lehman or A.I.G. and do not own much stock; why should I care?

The concern for the man on Main Street is not the bankruptcy of Lehman, per se. Rather, it is the collective inability of major financial institutions to find funding.

As their own funding dries up, the remaining financial firms will be much more cautious in extending credit to normal firms and individuals. So even for people whose own circumstances have not much changed, the cost of the credit is going to rise. For an individual or business that falls behind on payments or needs an increase in short-term credit because of the slowing economy, credit will be much harder to obtain than in recent years.

This is going to slow growth. We have not seen this much stress in the financial system since the Great Depression, so we do not have any recent history to rely upon in quantifying the magnitude of the slowdown. A recent educated guess by Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs suggests that G.D.P. growth will be just about 2 percentage points lower in 2008 and 2009. But as he explains, extrapolations of this sort are highly uncertain.

5) What does it mean for the Fed and Treasury going ahead?

A reasonable reading of the recent bailouts suggests a simple rule: if a firm is on the verge of collapse and its ties to the financial system will lead to a cascade of chaos, the firm will be saved. A bankruptcy will be permitted only if the failure can be contained.

Assuming the level of chaos is sufficiently high, this dichotomy is probably consistent with the mandate of the Federal Reserve. The rescue of A.I.G., however, raises some major challenges.

One is where to draw the line. A.I.G. was an insurance company, not a bank or a broker dealer, so the Fed had no special relationship with A.I.G. Presumably, if a very large airline or automaker had been involved in the C.D.S. market, the same reasoning that led to the rescue would apply.

A second challenge comes with defining the acceptable level of chaos. We will never be able to find out what would have happened if A.I.G. had been allowed to fail. Furthermore, there are some reasons to believe that even if A.I.G. continues to operate, the fundamental stress in the financial system will remain. If the rescue does not mark a turning point, the bailout may be viewed quite differently down the road.

Should the government intervene if it merely postpones an inevitable adjustment? Creditor runs can make adjustment too fast; blanket bailouts can make adjustment too slow. Has the Fed found the speed that is just right?

Third, now that A.I.G. has been lent to, how will regulation have to be adjusted? Surely the Fed cannot be called upon to provide backstop financing whenever a large member of the financial system runs into trouble. How does it prevent a replay of this scenario, and can it be done without stifling innovation?

6) What does this mean for the markets going ahead?

Letting Lehman go means that the remaining large financial services firms now must understand that they need to manage their own risks more carefully. This includes both securing adequate funding and being prudent about which counterparties to rely upon. Both of these developments are welcome.

If the remaining investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, do not get more secure funding in place, they may be acquired or subject to a run too. In the current environment, relying almost exclusively on short-term debt is hazardous, even if a firm or bank has nothing wrong with it.

7) When will the turmoil end?

The inability to secure short-term funding fundamentally comes from having insufficient capital. There are many indicators that the largest financial institutions are collectively short of capital.

One signal is that there were apparently only two bidders for Lehman, when the ongoing value from operating most of the bank was surely far above the $3.60 share price from Friday. Another is the elevated cost of borrowing that banks are charging each other. A third indicator is the reluctance to take on certain types of risk, such as jumbo mortgages, so that the cost of this type of borrowing is unusually high.

The fear of being the next Lehman ought to convince many of the large institutions that, despite however much they already raised, more is needed. It may be expensive to attract more equity financing, but the choice may be bankruptcy or sale. The decision by the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates suggests the Fed also recognizes that the short-term interest rate is a very inefficient way to address this problem.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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McDonald's: What Crisis?

Stock at an all-time high and a 33% dividend increase..

McDonald's (MCD) said on Thursday it would raise its quarterly cash dividend by 33% to 50 cents per share as strong sales helped boost its overall cash from operations.

"We are confident in our ability to invest in key growth opportunities and maintain a strong credit rating even as we return a significant amount of cash to shareholders," McDonald's Chief Executive Jim Skinner said.

McDonalds plans to return $15 billion to $17 billion in cash to shareholders from 2007 to 2009. In 2007 they returned $5.7 billion to shareholders via a combination of dividends and share repurchases and have returned $5.1 billion so far this year.

In tough time the best run companies eventually rise to the top, McDonalds clearly is one of them.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long MCD,
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No More Shorting Sears

This is just stupid....just ban them all for now....this "trickle banning" is insane!!!!

Reuters reports
Sears Holdings (SHLD) has been added to the "no sort" list.

Rather than ban it, why not look into the massive naked short interest in the stock? Wouldn't that make more sense?

SEC Chief Chris Cox cannot be fired fast enough. He clearly has no handle on the situation.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD
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More Florida Auto Dealerships Closing (update with video)

Just days after Bill Heard announced the closing of 13 Central Florida dealerships, today comes news more are closing.

Courtesy Pontiac Buick GMC in Longwood, Fla. is closing its doors, a spokesman for the dealership's owner said Thursday.

The spokesman said that it is part of a strategy to reduce the number of dealers of these auto lines and not because of economic problems for the company. Since Auto Nation (AN) has other locations and other dealers sell similar cars and trucks, the Longwood dealerhship needed to close because of a shrinking market. It is the only Courtesy dealership closing.

Here is a video on the Bill Heard closing:


AutoNation is capturing market share without spending a single penny to do so. This is precisely the scenario Auto/nation CEO Mike Jackson predicted in my interview with him.

When things turn, Jackson may just be the last guy standing selling cars to people..


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long AN
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Einhorn Interviewed in "Worth"

David Einhorn has granted "Worth" an interview in which he talks about short selling, Allied Capital (ALD), and Lehman..



WORTH: Let me ask about some of the labels the press has given you: “Short-seller.
David Einhorn: It’s not really the right description. We’re long and we’re short, and most days I’d much rather the market go up than down. But we do find some bad companies doing bad things and we sell them short, and I think that’s a good thing.

That label is often used as a pejorative.


Indeed.

What’s wrong with being a short-seller?


Well, first of all, a lot of people don’t understand it. They don’t understand whether short-seller means “short term”—they get confused with that. They don’t like the idea that you’re effectively betting that something bad happens. People want other people to succeed; they want the stock market to go up. I want other people to succeed; I want the stock market to go up.

But I do think that there is a social value in identifying companies that are doing bad things and betting against them. I’ve seen the demise of a fair number of these companies, and it’s not because we’ve bet against them, it’s because these were flawed companies. And our country, our markets, our economy are better when companies that are flawed or cheating are replaced by better ones.

Some people argue that this isn’t the right time to expose such companies, because they may fail and damage an already shaky economy.

How do you define when the right times are and when the not-right times are? The best way to handle this is to not put your business into a position where, if things don’t go exactly the way that you hoped, you’re forced to not tell the truth about your balance sheet.

Let me read you a sentence that appeared in the New York Times recently in a piece about you and Lehman Brothers: “For eight months now Mr. Einhorn, a rabble-rousing hedge fund manager, has pilloried the venerable Lehman Brothers in an effort to drive down the bank’s stock price, which he is betting against.”

How many things in that sentence would you take exception to?

Other than “David Einhorn,” I think everything.

“Rabble-rousing”?


A Washington Post journalist referred to me as a “cocky punk.” It’s interesting to see how folks are willing to engage in this.

The most loaded part of that sentence is probably the characterization, “in an effort to drive down the bank’s stock price.” That’s a common charge made against you in the context of Lehman and Allied—that you’re talking down these companies purely out of financial self-interest.


It’s self-evidently true that if the stock goes down we are positioned to make a profit. The question is, is that the whole story? And the answer is, it really isn’t.

If you talk about a stock, it’s not going to go down because you talked about it. It’s only going to change in price, up or down, based upon whether you add significant new information or analysis into the market. So the purpose of talking about the stock is to add information into the market, and if people find it old news or unpersuasive, more likely than not, they’re going to take the opposite side.

I’ve stood up and talked about lots of stocks where there’s been absolutely no reaction in the stock after I talked about it. And that’s fine too.

Why is it so hard for people to believe that a hedge fund manager could speak out on an issue for motives unrelated to profit?

DE: People believe what they want to believe, and the hedge fund industry’s press is miserable.

One of the things that must have been a real challenge for you, during the controversy over your short of Allied Capital, was this suspicion and distrust of hedge funds.


It’s the same thing as the, “Disregard what David has to say because he shorted the stock” argument, told by the management, who has all of their eggs in the stock. Who’s more biased in this equation? The short seller?

[Short-selling] is what it is and everybody can see it for what it is. Yet there’s this free pass given to management. They’re just supposed to promote and say whatever they want to say, and not tell the truth if that’s what it takes. And this is somehow acceptable.

I think the same [paradox] is true for the hedge fund industry. It’s boiled down nicely in the current credit crisis. The banks and the investment banks have had a very effective media campaign which basically says, ‘You have these lightly regulated, unregulated, whatever, hedge funds, that are the secret systemic risk—this is the monster. And what you really need to do is deregulate us and do something about those guys.’

We’ve seen that the hedge fund industry has acquitted itself pretty darn well as the credit crisis has unfolded. But the vast majority of banks and investment banks were taking on excessive risk with poor controls and pretty flawed thinking. And creating the exact same system risk many times over, many times bigger than anything that was imagined about the hedge funds.

And hedge funds don’t have government help to fall back on.

Hedge funds appreciate that if they do a bad job, if they blow themselves up, there’s nobody there who’s going to bail them out. They’re going to lose their business, they’re going to lose their reputation, their customers are going to lose their money, and it’s just going to be a sorry experience for everybody.

But if a big investment bank, like Lehman Brothers, makes a big mistake with their accounting because they didn’t have adequate systems, they believe that the Treasury or the Fed will bail them out.

The rest of this interview with David Einhorn will appear in the October issue of Worth magazine.


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Friday's Links

Greenspan, AMBAC, twitter, Steelers

- This is true

- I think this is fairly accurate

- A great way to have conversations

- The fact they are being sold????? Rooney's family should be shot

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Thursday, September 25, 2008

CVS is Now a Financial?

So, when did CVS (CVS) become classified as a financial?

The SEC has added
CVS to the "short selling ban" that was initially restricted to financial companies. The reason? CVS, one of the biggest US drugstore groups, said on Thursday it was added to the list because it ran Caremark, the prescription benefit manager.

This is just insane. Just ban short selling altogether. The rules are being changed in a daily basis. If investors or traders do not know from day to day what the rules are, they just will not do anything. Why place a bet when the gov't can come in tomorrow and wipeout your position? Why?

This comes just after SEC Commish Chris Cox asked to regulate the credit default market. If there is a god in heaven that request will be declined until he is replaced. Either regulate or don't, whatever, but you just cannot "make it up as you go along".

Cris Cox needs to go...just get out..

No one benefits when it gets done that way..

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Congressional Sanity

Check out Rep Paul Kanjorski this mornings.....this is good stuff




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David Einhorn Practices What He Preaches

This is great stuff.......

From Nasdaq

The following NASDAQ-listed company has been voluntarily removed from the SEC’s original list of Included Financial Firms:
* Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. (GLRE). Effective Wednesday, September 24, 2008, this company will not be subject to the restrictions of the SEC’s Emergency Order.

So, while people can yell, scream and curse those like Einhorn who publicly short stocks and are not afraid to tell the world they are, they is one name they cannot call him. Hypocrite.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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Longs Drug Receives FTC Notice and Letter From Walgreen's CEO

This is getting good...


From the SEC filing

Longs Drug Stores Corporation (“Longs”) (NYSE: LDG) today announced that the Federal Trade Commission (the “FTC”) has requested that Longs provide the FTC with documents and information in connection with Walgreens’ (NYSE, NASDAQ: WAG) unsolicited, non-binding expression of interest to acquire Longs. In the detailed 25-page request, the FTC stated that it was investigating whether Walgreens’ proposed acquisition of Longs “may substantially lessen competition among Retail Pharmacies in various portions of California, Nevada and Hawaii.” In addition, the FTC requested information regarding several markets that had not been examined in the FTC’s previous review of the proposed Longs-CVS transaction, including Longs’ operations in Hawaii and Longs’ mail order business. The FTC may add to the request as its investigation progresses. Longs intends to cooperate in the FTC’s investigation.

Here is a time-line of events between Walgreen's and Longs.

Also, Walgreen (WAG) CEO Jeffery Rein sent the following letter (letter below) the Longs CEO Warren Bryant

Dear Mr. Bryant:

We have carefully reviewed your September 17th letter and are disappointed with your unwillingness to discuss our proposal. We continue to believe that our proposal is a “Superior Proposal” or, at a minimum, represents a “bona fide Acquisition Proposal” that “will lead to a Superior Proposal,” as defined in the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated August 12, 2008, with CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS). It is clear that your stockholders agree. As you have been unwilling to speak with us, we have no option but to address the points raised in your September 17th letter in this letter. In your September 17th letter, you take the position that Walgreens is not willing to accept the inherent regulatory risks in connection with an acquisition of Longs. This statement is not accurate. We are confident that the combination of Longs and Walgreens would receive all required regulatory approvals in a reasonable period of time and do not believe that anything even approaching the threshold of divestitures that we already have agreed to in our proposal would be required. We believe that your advisors would agree with this conclusion. If there is any confusion, we want to make clear that our commitment to divest covers the stores and assets of both Longs and Walgreens. We also believe that your position overstates the significance of this concern, as the outcome of the FTC process will be apparent before you would terminate your agreement with CVS.

We also believe that you have significantly overstated the regulatory risk. The retail pharmacy business is highly competitive. Upon consummation of the proposed transaction, the combined Walgreens/Longs will account for less than 35% of the retail pharmacies in almost every metropolitan area where the two companies both participate. In the few areas where the combined share of stores would exceed 35%, it would do so by only a small margin, and additional competitive influences, such as mail order, competition from health plan pharmacies and the potential for new entry and expansion by existing competitors should ensure that those areas remain highly competitive. In that regard, CVS has recently announced plans to expand in several parts of Northern California, independent from the Longs transaction, further eroding current market shares in those areas.

We believe that the regulatory review process will be successfully completed without undue delay for several reasons: (1) our team is already working with the FTC and has been from the first day that our proposal was announced, (2) the FTC is familiar with Longs, having completed a process recently in connection with the CVS transaction, (3) if necessary, we are prepared to discuss remedies with the FTC at an early stage, and (4) we are working closely with our real estate and operating partners on a parallel process to provide any necessary solution or remedy. In order to address any divestitures that may be required, we have partnered with experienced real estate investors. Our real estate partners have significant experience in your markets and have a strong track record of success in partnering in strategic transactions. Klaff Realty, LP (“Klaff”) is a privately owned real estate investment company based in Chicago, Illinois that engages in the acquisition, redevelopment and management of commercial real estate throughout the United States. To date, Klaff and its partners have acquired portfolios in excess of 112 million square feet of retail and office properties with a value in excess of $6 billion and its current portfolio of properties consists of approximately over 40 million square feet of retail space and distribution centers across the United States. Lubert-Adler Management Company, L.P. (“Lubert-Adler”) is a real estate private equity firm specializing in acquisitions and redevelopments through joint ventures with local operating partners. Since its inception in 1997, Lubert-Adler has invested in over $15 billion of real estate assets.

Over the last several years, Klaff and Lubert-Adler (collectively, “KLA”) have co-invested, in some cases as members of a consortium, in a number of very significant acquisitions. These include a portion of the Albertsons privatization ($2.3 billion acquisition of 661 stores including in-store pharmacies), Cub Supermarkets in the Chicago market ($25 million acquisition of 25 stores including in-store pharmacies), Shopko ($1.2 billion acquisition of 204 stores) and Rex Stores ($83 million acquisition of 87 stores). As a direct example, KLA and its partners successfully operated Albertsons and then sold certain stores to other first-class operators, such as Save Mart in Northern California and Publix in Florida. In New Mexico, the consortium acquired additional stores and expanded Albertsons’ footprint. In addition to their broad retail investment experience, we have chosen KLA as a partner due to the depth of the west coast and drug store management team that will work with Walgreens. Each of Klaff and Lubert-Adler have significant experience working with operating partners and we continue discussions with additional potential operating partners. With respect to the proposed transaction, KLA has agreed, subject to due diligence, to acquire Longs or Walgreens stores and other assets that may be required to be divested to obtain the required regulatory approvals for the transaction.

In your September 17th letter, you argue that Walgreens is not proposing to compensate Longs stockholders for any potential delays in consummating a transaction with Walgreens. Our $75.00 per share cash offer is superior to the CVS transaction. Relative to the CVS offer of $71.50 per share, our $75.00 proposal will return a higher value to Longs’ stockholders and the fact that they will continue to receive dividend payments will mitigate the impact of the time required to obtain the required regulatory approvals. As indicated in our initial proposal, we are prepared to agree to terms and conditions that are at least as favorable to Longs stockholders as those in the CVS merger agreement.

You should have no concern with our ability to finance the proposed transaction. Walgreens is highly rated from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s, has a strong balance sheet and has sufficient liquidity and access to the necessary capital required to consummate the proposed transaction. We have had discussions with our financing sources and we are confident in our ability to secure committed financing prior to Longs terminating the merger agreement with CVS and entering into an agreement with Walgreens.

Our proposal is compelling—it would deliver superior value to Longs stockholders relative to the CVS transaction and can be consummated without undue delay. We again request that we be given an opportunity to conduct customary due diligence pursuant to the terms of your agreement with CVS as soon as possible. Although we would unquestionably prefer to work directly with you to complete a negotiated transaction, we are prepared to take our transaction directly to your stockholders. We are available to meet with you and your advisors as soon as possible to discuss our proposal and to answer any of your questions. We, as well as KLA, are prepared to commit all necessary resources to quickly complete due diligence and negotiate a mutually acceptable agreement.


Between Pershing's Bill Ackman, Walgreen's and now the FTC, Longs is going to have to explain to shareholders in the end why they turned down a superior offer.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Altria Turns Tables

After decades of defending itself against lawsuits. Altria (MO) is

From Marketwatch

Philip Morris USA said it filed a suit to overturn a San Francisco law that would ban convenience drugstores from selling tobacco products. Altria is the Richmond, Va., tobacco company. Philip Morris said late on Wednesday that it sued in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, asking the court to declare the ordinance unconstitutional. The city Board of Supervisors has passed the law, and a separate suit in state court has also challenged the ordinance, Philip Morris said. "Although called a ban on sales," the law suppresses "communications directed to adult smokers, in violation of our constitutional rights," said Joe Murillo, Altria client-services vice president and associate general counsel, said in a statement


This is great. Tobacco is a legal product. You cannot ban the sale of a legal product to those legally allowed to use it, period. It is also nice to see Tobacco go on the offensive rather than sitting back.

Next up, Master Settlement Refunds...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long MO
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Thursday's Links

Bogle, Value Investing Congress, SEC, Ouch

-

- Anyone else going?

- The witch hunt begins

- Maybe limits on exec compensation is not so bad?


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AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson in Las Vegas (video)

Here is a video interview with AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson at the opening of an AutoNation BMW dealership in Las Vegas. AutoNation sells 10% of all Mercedes and 5% of all BMW's (BMW) in the US.




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long AN, none
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Sears to Unveil 3-D Interactive Website

Sears will soon unveil a one of a kind online shopping experience.

Multi-Unit Franchise Reports
Sears (SHLD), IBM (IBM) and My Virtual Model, Inc. today unveiled a first-of-its-kind 3D visual search and e-commerce capability for Sears.com that will significantly improve and enhance a consumer's online shopping experience. Sears is the first retailer to apply both a visual search and virtual model to an entire catalogue online.

The updated Sears site, powered by IBM WebSphere Commerce and My Virtual Model, will allow consumers to recreate their in-store shopping experience online by enabling them to search for merchandise using images versus words, and to virtually "try on" selected items using a personalized model of themselves to ensure that the style, color, pattern and fit are right before purchasing.

The Sears site will enable shoppers to search on a specific style -- such as long-sleeve tunic shirts or cropped cargo pants -- and find products from the company's expansive catalogue of clothing, shoes and accessories using 3D images versus words. Shoppers can create countless combinations using a virtual model they can build and personalize to match their measurements -- height, weight, body shape -- and a headshot photo to ensure that the style, color, pattern and fit are right. The 3D angle allows users to view garments on themselves from the front, side and back, and shoppers can also email images of their looks to friends and family to help them make final purchasing decisions.

"Sears is transforming the online shopping experience by offering consumers cutting edge visual search and virtual model capabilities," said Rob Mills, vice president, Sears Online Business Unit. "By allowing shoppers to visually search for and view items in 3D, to see how they'll actually look on themselves in various combinations, and virtually share their finds with friends and family, Sears is providing shoppers with a superior social and e-commerce experience that we believe will increase satisfaction and loyalty."


This is fascinating and what will be interesting is how much the new site and its capabilities cut down on returns. It seems a given that in an online order, something will be returned, Sears could save a small fortune drastically reducing this.

It also ought to add substantially to sales as an interactive site can capture customers...


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD, none
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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

AutoZone Adds $500 million to Buyback

Less than a week after improved earnings, AutoZone returns cash to shareholders.

AutoZone (AZO) announced that its Board has authorized the repurchase of an additional $500 million of the Company's common stock. Including the additional authorization, the cumulative share repurchase authorization approved by its Board since 1998 totals $6.9 billion.

AutoZone also announced that Luis P. Nieto was elected to the Company's Board of Directors. Mr. Nieto is President, Consumer Foods for ConAgra Foods Inc., one of the largest packaged foods companies in North America. Prior to joining ConAgra, Mr. Nieto was President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federated Group, a leading private label supplier to the retail grocery and foodservice industries from 2002 to 2005.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Largest US Chevy Dealership To Close Doors

Remember my interview with AutoNation CEO mike Jackson? His words today seem prophetic..


Here was the exchange:
Todd Sullivan: The Kiplinger Report estimates that about 1,200 dealerships across the US are going to close this year, mostly domestic brands, do you see that as an accurate assessment or do you see more than the 1,200?


Mike Jackson: I think it could well be more as we’ve hit a tipping point on sustainability. It’s not just going to be small ones, its going to be big ones also. The retail distribution system was never rationalized and the domestic share moved from 70% to 50%, if you look at the number of dealerships that came out that period of time was very minor vs what was done in the manufacturing side and the white collar side. With any decline in industry value with that overcapacity situation, you’ve hit an inflection point that is going to lead to a rapid decline in the number of dealerships out there, particularly domestic.

The situation was sustained with a bond of loyalty that went just beyond just economics with a resilient business model. But that bond has been broken and the business model cannot handle these types of declines with that type of overcapacity. I think its hit an inflection point and you’re going to see massive amounts of automotive real estate be converted over to other business uses. Families that have been in the business 40, 50, 60, and 70 years are going to say "this is it and I’ve had enough, I’m getting out".

Full Interview

Today this news:
Bill Heard Enterprises, the country's top Chevrolet dealer group, is closing the doors at all of its 13 dealerships at the end of business today, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.

Bill Heard Enterprises, of Columbus, Ga., ranks No. 13 on the Automotive News list of the top 125 U.S. dealership groups, with 2007 group revenue of $2.13 billion.

AutoNation is going to pick up market share "through attrition" as Jackson said in the interview. As the things Jackson said in the interview begin to come to fruition, one has to also look at what he said about his own company.

"Significant postponed demand" were the three words that stick with me. Cars are still aging and still need to be replaced. When the current credit condition ends, and it will, Jackson and AutoNation will be in the pre-eminent position to caputre that "postponed demand".

Got to give it to the guy, he really called this one...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long AN
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Borders CEO George Jones Interview

I just finished an interview with Borders Group (BGP) CEO George Jones

It it we discussed:
1- The retail book business
2- Borders.com
3- Pershing Square
4- Liquidity
5- The Future

It was a very informative talk. The future is very bright there indeed...


Disclosure: Long BGP
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Buffett Talks About Goldman Deal (video)

Berkshire's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett talks about Goldman Sachs (GS), Paulson and the $700B.




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GS, none
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Heavy TD Bank Interest in Washington Mutual

Major investors are supporting TD Bank's (TD) potential bis for Washington Mutual.

TD has been using the unusually strong Canadian dollar to snap up banks assets in the US, the most recent the $8.5-billion acquisition of New Jersey-based Commerce Bancorp.

According to shareholders "The phenomenal pace at which U.S. banks were being pushed to the verge of bankruptcy was creating a "once in a lifetime opportunity" for Canadian buyers.

The main sticking point for any potential buyer is the $300B in mortgages WaMu holds and what portion of them can be sold to the Treasury and at what terms.

WaMu is interesting because it is essentially trading as though it is destined to go under. It is pretty obvious that after those in Congress finish spewing populist venom at Wall St., something is going to get done. That being said, we can assume a large part of the problem with WaMu will be alleviated. When that happens, the stock now trades far below the value of the bank.

Now, the problem here is whether or not the gov't requires equity interest in the companies it buys securities from. Based on Buffet and Berkshire's (BRK.A) investment in Goldman Sachs (GS) today, I think Warren feels this option is not likely.

If WaMu can unload these, the stock ought to rocket. If they can only unload a small portion, then they may need to sell branches to raise additional cash. In that case, depending on the details, the stock may be overpriced where it is and if it is forced lower, may not recover for a long time.

If they cannot sell them, then they are forced into a fire sale and all bet are off as to a value, if any, for the current equity.

Which option? My guess is a hybrid of option 1 and 2. With that, I would say that there lies the potential for substantial upside to shares, with the risk being annihilation. It is Vegas time for shareholders. If you like to gamble, keep it small.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GS, none
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Wednesday's Links

Einhorn, Congress, Blame, Bespoke

- A good article from the UK

- Ironic....as they rail about Wall St. greed, they exhibit their own

- Looks like the SEC and Congress has more than their share of blame

- Short info


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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Goldman Going Shopping?

Did Goldman Sachs (GS) need to raise $7.5 billion for survival? No. It did if it wanted to go shopping for deposits though...

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is buying $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock with a 10% coupon, as well as warrants that give it the right to buy $5 billion of common stock during next five years for $115, 8% below Goldman's closing stock price Tuesday.

Goldman also announced it will sell sell at least $2.5 billion of common stock to the public. That ought to give Goldman $7.5 billion in fresh capital immediately.

This comes almost immediately after it "Bank Holding Company" status as granted by the Fed.

Why? Debt for an acquisition would be very hard for Goldman to come by so raising funds this way is it best option. With Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan (JPM) and now TD Bank (TD) all rumored to be sniffing around Washington Mutual (WM) and Wachovia (WB) and Morgan Stanley (MS) in perpetual merger status, Goldman must be feeling at risk of losing out on some cheap assets.

Will Goldman go it alone? Doubtful but even as part of group, Goldman needed cash to get a deal done. Now they have it.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GS, WFC, WB, none
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Text of Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris Speech on US Industry Policy

Here it is. Liveris covers the whole gamut. I though about posting segments but you really need to read the whole text to appreciate the situation we are in. Dow (DOW) is going to be fine as Liveris is moving production overseas. If we want to remain competitive, raising the burden on business is NOT the answer. Unless Congress can get its act together (if you are watching the Paulson/Bernanke testimony today, you can be encouraged) things are going to get worse.

Andrew Liveris spoke in Detroit yesterday... Here are his remarks.

Thank you, Bill (Ford, Jr.) for your kind words and the invitation to be here today.
As Bill mentioned, I was here two years ago. At that time, I shared my concerns about the state of manufacturing and the weak economy. But I am an optimist and in the back of my mind I thought, surely, it can’t get any worse, right?

Instead, we’ve witnessed two years of continual slide capped by the unprecedented meltdown in the financial sector last week. Frankly, we’re just now beginning to see the repercussions of that crisis as markets respond and re-settle themselves.

Wall St. isn’t the only place feeling pain, of course. Main Street USA is feeling it, too. People in every town and city across the country are uneasy these days. And for good reason.

Since I was here last, oil has risen from the mid-$70s a barrel to around $100 today.
Housing starts are at their lowest level since 1991, and there seems to be no bottom in sight. Consumer prices are expanding at the fastest pace in 17 years, affecting every consumer item from fuel to food.

On top of that, we have the sobering news that the economy lost some half a million manufacturing jobs since the end of 2006. And I’m sure you all saw the jobs report last month for the entire nation: 84,000 jobs lost in August alone.
September, it appears, won’t look any better.

And the rank and file employees who are still working? They earned three percent less last month than they had a year earlier simply because of inflation.

Even the small things are more expensive. I saw a report in the New York Times recently that the price for the common paper clip – this small item holding my talk together – is up 40 percent.

As that great American philosopher, Will Rogers, once said, we seem intent on showing the entire world we’re prosperous … even if we have to go broke to do it.

Given all the doom and gloom, it really is hard to remain an optimist. But I am reminded of the advice that I’ve given others so many times – that often the difference between success and failure is nothing more than pure persistence and hard work.

So here we are, talking again about a difficult economy and what to do with it.
Talking … again … about a real energy crisis that will have no quick or painless solution.

Talking once more about how to return this country to a position of strength and vigor.

As Bill said, on my last visit before you I did state that the United States was THE indispensable nation in the world. As a foreign citizen who has benefited enormously from the American freedom and enterprise model, I stand by that statement today more than ever.

The world would be a much poorer – and a much more dangerous – place were it not for the United States and its global influence.

But as I travel around the world and I see other countries putting together comprehensive and well thought-out plans for energy, manufacturing and sustainable economic development – I have concerns.

I’m concerned that our economic dependence on others is continuing to increase every day. I’m concerned that we’re in the midst of the greatest wealth transfer out of this country in history … $500 billion plus spent annually for foreign oil … and too few in Washington seem alarmed.

And I’m concerned – most concerned – that the U.S. is forfeiting its dominant position as THE indispensable nation because it has lost sight of what first made it strong: a vibrant industrial and manufacturing base that drives innovation, technology – and creates jobs – from the shop floor, to the engineering centers, to the R&D labs and to the white collar offices.

Ladies and gentlemen, let us never forget that the very life force and strength of this great country begins here – in America’s heartland. A country can’t be strong abroad if it’s not strong at home. It can’t be strong in China or Chile if it’s not strong in places like Cleveland and Canton. It can’t be strong in Dubai if it’s not strong first in Detroit.

Somehow, our government has lost sight of that. Instead of implementing policies that make our industrial heartland stronger, government has made it weaker. And we’ve allowed bad economic policies to drive good jobs out of the country.

In fact, between the bankers in New York, the lawyers in Washington, and the actors and entertainers from Hollywood, we have allowed people who know nothing of the might and intellect of our manufacturing base to make laws and decisions on our behalf.

We’ve allowed them to create an industrial crisis in this country that is undermining our nation’s strength … and they don’t even know it.

If you want to do something enlightening, go to the Internet and Google for the phrase “energy crisis.” You’ll get over 4,000 stories.

Then search for “economic crisis.” You’ll get more than 5,000 hits.

Then search for the phrase “industrial crisis,” something that is just as real and felt just as deeply by everyday Americans. You’ll get fewer than 10 stories – and none will be about the United States.

So, yes. I am still an optimist. But I’m an impatient optimist because at Dow we know there is a better way.

So what I’d like to do today is lay out for you the broad components of a new industrial policy. Not one characterized by central planning and the picking of winners and losers. We know that approach doesn’t work.

What I’m talking about is a pro-industrial policy crafted and developed by manufacturers for manufacturers, a policy that rejuvenates our economic base.

Consider it a new strategy, if you will, to make American industry competitive again, re-establish our economic and energy independence and re-grow jobs in America.
What are the components of this plan? There are two.

First, we must look with fresh eyes at the structural costs that have weakened the very foundation of our manufacturing enterprises and remove the obstacles hurting our competitiveness.

And second, we must develop a comprehensive energy policy.

Now, I will admit that some people, like the ones I referenced before, don’t like the words “industrial policy.” I understand.

But the truth is that in this country today we already have an industrial policy – except, in reality, it’s mostly an ANTI-industrial policy – a set of contradictory, ill-planned and ultimately self-defeating laws and regulations that are creating havoc at the manufacturing base.

Consider this alarming fact: Thirty years ago, manufacturing made up nearly 22 percent of the U.S. economy. Today, it’s less than 12 percent and falling.

This will be no surprise to anyone in Michigan but the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. has fallen by 3.7 million over the past 10 years. We’re projected to lose another 1.5 million over the next eight years.

That’s 5.2 million jobs – 5.2 million jobs that today pay more than $17 an hour plus benefits. To put it another way, that’s $190 billion in wages and $76 billion in benefits.

I ask you this: What elected official in his right mind would develop an industrial policy that destroys $190 billion in annual wages? Which politician would want to tell the American voters they just lost $76 billion in benefits?

The sad fact is that nobody intentionally sought to do this. But it’s happening right under our noses. Anti-industrial policy is hurting a lot of good people.

If it were just the U.S. and nobody else, it wouldn’t matter. But there ARE countries around the world that DO see the uplifting power of manufacturing. I spent much of my career at Dow working in Asia. I saw first hand how the “Asian tigers” used manufacturing and trade to go from grinding poverty to growing prosperity.

Today the emerging economic powers like China and India understand that when you build an economy from the ground up – make a strong manufacturing base as its foundation – benefits flow to everyone.

Those nations are our competitors and many of them are beating us at our own game.
Do we have to change? Well … no. As the quality guru Edward Deming put it: Change isn’t necessary. No one said survival was mandatory.

History is replete with once-great countries that have dissolved into obscurity precisely because they didn’t change.

If we want to keep the economic lead we’ve had for a century, however, we have to re-tool a few things. If we want to keep the many benefits that accrue from a strong economy, we must change course.

Times change, and strategies have to change with them.

And we have to start, first and foremost, with the structural costs that are suffocating industry in this country. We must level the playing field by removing the artificial, ANTI-industrial policy costs that disadvantage American businesses against the rest of the world.

Think about this. The 14 million men and women who work in U.S. manufacturing created about $1.6 trillion of wealth in 2007.

That’s a huge, almost mind-blowing number. But the sad fact is it could be so much larger, and we could be so much more competitive.

We’re burying our manufacturers under red-tape, weighing them down with structural burdens that push our production costs a staggering 32% higher than our major trading partners.

Understand: I’m not talking about top-down economic planning in any way, shape or form. I’m talking taking into account Tom Friedman’s “flat world” and using a little forethought about the policies that affect business.

I’m talking about little more coordination with policies in place already, and a lot more coordination with reality.

And I’m talking about resolving the conflicts in law and regulation that hamper our abilities to do business efficiently and effectively.

I propose work in four areas to bring our costs in line with our competitors.

1- Lowering the corporate tax rate.
2- Re-inventing regulation.
3- Reforming our civil justice system.
4- And finding a solution to the crisis known as healthcare in America.

Each one of these puts U.S. industry at a competitive disadvantage above and beyond the cost of labor. And each one of these burdens could be lightened or eliminated by our own government.

I won’t go into each of these for the sake of time. Besides, most of you already know, for example, that America has the second highest corporate tax rates in the world.

But did you also know that of the 30 members who comprise the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, nine dropped their corporate tax rates last year to attract more investments.

Germany dropped its tax rate. So did Canada and the UK. Even the Czech Republic!

Not the U.S. Why should that be?

As one great leader said, some in this country regard private enterprise as if it were a predatory tiger to be shot. Or they look upon it as a cow they can milk. Only a handful see it for what it really is: the strong horse that pulls the whole cart.

That was Winston Churchill who fought his own battles a half century ago to keep Britain’s economy unencumbered and vibrant. He was unsuccessful, if you hadn’t noticed.

If you want a cautionary tale about what this economy could look like if we continue to push manufacturing out of the country, look across the great pond. The service-based economy of the U.K. rises and falls at the mercy of others.

This point is really being brought home right now as the financial crisis in the US has been felt in full force in the UK, which has no other sector available to buttress this effect.

We can’t afford to follow down a path of economic malaise like U.K. by destroying our manufacturing sector.

Making things – real, tangible things – still matters.

The leaders of this country should remember that the word “industry” created this great country’s might by opening up the West … by fighting two World Wars … by putting a man on the moon … and by improving our lives and the lives of our children by creating high paying jobs and rewarding careers.

They should remember … but they don’t.

Instead, they’ve saddled it with huge corporate taxes … AND a crisis in health care costs … AND an out-of-control civil justice system that adds a huge cost burden to American enterprise … AND an inefficient regulatory system that costs us as much as $10,000 per employee in the manufacturing sector.

Don’t we owe it to America’s families, and especially to the next generation, to put back in place a Pro-Industrial Policy that stimulates investments and jobs by removing the structural costs that are holding us back?

This brings me to the second key component of an Industrial Policy for the 21st Century – the need for a comprehensive Energy Plan.

I don’t need to tell those of you here today that energy is the life-blood of our modern economy. But I do want to point out that the current energy crisis goes far deeper than the price of gasoline at the pump and those high heating bills on the way this winter.

Here’s what I mean by way of an example. Dow is currently on track to spend $32 billion – yes, I said billion with “B” - $32 billion this year on energy and feedstock costs. That’s more than the entire U.S. chemical industry spent just a few years ago.

That’s just one way to measure the impact of rising energy costs. The race for affordable energy also affects where we invest and where we build plants.

Keep in mind that every dollar of energy consumed creates 20 dollars of GDP value-add. That dollar also creates five of the kind of high-paying manufacturing jobs Michigan and every other state needs so badly.

It seems like common sense to keep those kinds of investments inside our borders.

Instead, most of those investments are now occurring outside the U.S.

Dollars are flowing - in unprecedented amounts - to places like China, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and many other countries that want the value-add to their economy that manufacturers bring.

What I don’t understand is why our political leaders don’t see that.

Maybe it’s because they hear TV commentators say the price of oil has “dropped” to $100 a barrel! Or that gas has “dropped” below $4 a gallon! This type of irresponsible reporting is creating a false sense of security.

It does, however, confirm what James Schlesinger, the first Secretary of Energy in the U.S., first noticed decades ago: When it comes to energy policy, he said, America has only two modes: panic and complacency.

A slight, temporary moderation in price is no excuse for complacency. $100 oil brings me no comfort. Gas at $3.70 is no cause for celebration.

Frankly, this country needs a little panic because the truth hasn’t sunk in yet. We have entered a new era in energy – one driven by a new global fact of life: less supply and more and more demand.

Even with greater conservation, energy consumption is soaring. It’s forecast to rise 53 percent between now and 2030. Earlier this year the International Monetary Fund put out a report projecting the number of automobiles by themselves increasing 2.3 billion by 2050.

The good news for Detroit is that somebody will have to manufacture all those cars. The bad news is that we’ll still have to power them and they’ll still add to our growing energy consumption.

And despite the exponential increases in the amount of wind, solar and renewable energy coming on line, the fact is that these sources won’t be able to keep up with overall demand.

So the energy of tomorrow – like today – will depend predominantly on fossil fuels: oil, natural gas and coal.

Everyone in Washington knows this. So where’s the policy to deal with this new reality? This country doesn’t have one.

I say “this country” has no strategy. But what I really mean is that Washington has no coherent strategy. Americans everywhere else already know the solutions.

Ninety-two percent of Americans believe that developing alternative energy sources is a step in the right direction. 88 percent want cars that are more fuel efficient. 67 percent believe we need more oil refineries and 73 percent believe off-shore drilling is a good idea. And, I’m heartened to say, 82 percent believe that conservation is important to our overall energy policy.

Even in Santa Barbara – the city where 200,000 gallons of oil spilled offshore some 40 years ago and where the movement to ban off-shore drilling began – even Santa Barbara gets it. The County Board of Supervisors there voted just last month in support of new drilling off its shore.

When it comes to energy, there’s no ideology among the American consumer. Almost everyone wants more conservation, alternative energy, greater fuel efficiency, and environmentally responsible offshore drilling to help us right now.

And, yet, here we are … constrained by the old politics, separated by silos of thinking and ill-served by politicians intent on fighting the last war instead of the one in front of us.

And what is most worrisome to me – what is most vexing – is that Washington doesn’t understand that the energy crisis isn’t just about energy. The energy crisis is also about jobs … about manufacturing competitiveness. And at its base, the energy crisis is an industrial crisis that is threatening America’s strength and standing in the world.

Four years ago we at Dow proposed a way out of this. We proposed an Energy Plan with three key components.

The first is to pass comprehensive federal goals on energy efficiency and conservation. To me, this is common sense.

Now, I realize I’m in Detroit and energy efficiency goals sound like code words for new fuel standards. It's heartening to see all the Big Auto’s developing new models to consume less fuel. But what I’m mostly talking about here is improving the efficiency of buildings.

Consider this: buildings are responsible for 40 percent of our total energy use, 70 percent of our electricity use and 38 percent of our CO2 emissions. A combination of federal incentives and local energy efficiency building codes could lower all of those numbers and significantly improve this country’s energy security.

A very achievable 25-percent improvement in the energy efficiency of our economy would save this country the equivalent of all of its oil purchases from the Middle East and be the foundation for a secure energy future. It’s the first and easiest step to implement.

The second component is to increase and diversify our domestic energy supplies. This is simple logic.

We have the oil deposits here. We have natural gas deposits. And we certainly have the coal reserves.

We should be accessing – responsibly and safely – every source we have to produce as much energy as we can at home.

We also have the best technology in the world. Why not use that to build new, safe nuclear power facilities? Why not begin – today – an Apollo-like R&D project to solve the carbon capture and sequestration question so we can use – safely and responsibly – that 200-year supply of coal beneath our feet?

The third component of our plan is to accelerate the development of all alternative energy sources – including renewables – and provide the financial support on research and development to get us there.

Given the situation we’re in today, it’s amazing to me that this Congress can’t even seem to pass an extension of the Renewable Energy Tax Credits and, as a result, is putting this country’s renewable energy industry – along with 100,000 jobs and $20 billion in investments – at risk.

Congress should also live up to its commitment and fund the direct loan program it created last year to help lower the cost of capital so the auto industry can retool to make more fuel-efficient vehicles.

The fact is we don’t need to limit our possibilities by limiting our choices. Solar. Wind. Biomass and other renewable and alternative supplies. We need them all. And we
need them now.

Will these give us energy independence? No.

Energy independence is a pipe dream for the U.S. But these steps will help us achieve the more realistic goal of energy security.

And, while I’m at it, let me remind you we have to do all of this within the context of reducing our carbon footprint. That’s why Dow – along with the Big Three automakers, other large and diversified companies and leading environmental groups – are members of the U.S. Climate Action Partnership and are committed to driving the Federal government to adopt measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

So there are three steps to Dow’s Energy Plan for America. Improve efficiency and conservation. Diversify domestic supplies. Find new alternatives and renewables.

If we take these steps – in concert with one another – we can literally provide the fuel that will restore the power to American industry.

Do these sound familiar? They should.

They are now being talked about more and more … by more and more politicians, companies, CEOs, and yes, even the President of the United States and the two candidates that want to succeed him.

I suppose we should be pleased that this plan is finally being talked about. But it’s hard to take pleasure when all we hear is talk.

We have yet to see any significant action by Congress. We have yet to see a bipartisan approach to getting it ALL put in place. And I mean ALL.

Not what partisanship brings us, but what common sense demands we do.

The right path forward is not one of “divide-and-conquer.” That’s what got us into this mess to begin with.

The right path forward – the only path forward – is one of collaboration and coordination: public and private sectors, Republicans and Democrats, industry and environmentalists, working together with the goal of finding and removing obstacles.

And we need to start where the major challenges of our day intersect: on manufacturing … on jobs … on energy … and the environment.

That’s what we call the Dow Energy Plan for America – a workable plan and a real solution to rebuild the industrial base in this country and put Americans back to work.

One of the things I love about democracies – like America – like my native Australia – is that every few years we get to elect new leaders and chart a new course.

This country is entering an historic era. It will elect either its first African-

American President or its first female Vice President.

And this new leadership must marshal the courage to re-establish America’s place in the world as THE indispensable nation.

If this nation is going to live up to its legacy – if it’s going to fulfill its potential of independent influence – our leaders must remember that its strength comes not necessarily from strong politicians … but from a strong economy. Not from strong words … but from strong, practical policies that rebuild the industrial heartland and create new jobs for Americans in every part of this great country.

We do that by removing the artificial anti-industrial policy costs that disadvantage American manufacturers.

And we do it by insisting – at every turn – on an energy policy that promotes efficiency … alternatives and renewables … AND new domestic supplies.

We at Dow are committed to this defining idea and plan. We are committed to this state and to this great country.

And I look forward to working with all of you – in the private AND public sectors – as we build this new future together and re-establish America’s preeminence in the world.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long DOW
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John Bogle at Interview at Mass School of Law

This interview in Jan. 2007, 60 minute long is interesting as it talks about his then new book "Corporate America Run Amok: The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism". Given recent events, it may just be reading for today.




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Wilbur Ross Comments on Short Sellers (video)

Ross says short selling "got excessive". He also comments on current gov't plan.




Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Bernake's Testimony

Here is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony (his prepared remarks) to be delivered later this morning.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
U.S. financial markets
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
September 23, 2008

Chairman Dodd, Senator Shelby, and members of the Committee, I appreciate this opportunity to discuss recent developments in financial markets and the economy. As you know, the U.S. economy continues to confront substantial challenges, including a weakening labor market and elevated inflation. Notably, stresses in financial markets have been high and have recently intensified significantly. If financial conditions fail to improve for a protracted period, the implications for the broader economy could be quite adverse.

The downturn in the housing market has been a key factor underlying both the strained condition of financial markets and the slowdown of the broader economy. In the financial sphere, falling home prices and rising mortgage delinquencies have led to major losses at many financial institutions, losses only partially replaced by the raising of new capital. Investor concerns about financial institutions increased over the summer, as mortgage-related assets deteriorated further and economic activity weakened. Among the firms under the greatest pressure were Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), Lehman Brothers, and, more recently, American International Group (AIG). As investors lost confidence in them, these companies saw their access to liquidity and capital markets increasingly impaired and their stock prices drop sharply.

The Federal Reserve believes that, whenever possible, such difficulties should be addressed through private-sector arrangements--for example, by raising new equity capital, by negotiations leading to a merger or acquisition, or by an orderly wind-down. Government assistance should be given with the greatest of reluctance and only when the stability of the financial system, and, consequently, the health of the broader economy, is at risk. In the cases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, however, capital raises of sufficient size appeared infeasible and the size and government-sponsored status of the two companies precluded a merger with or acquisition by another company. To avoid unacceptably large dislocations in the financial sector, the housing market, and the economy as a whole, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship, and the Treasury used its authority, granted by the Congress in July, to make available financial support to the two firms. The Federal Reserve, with which FHFA consulted on the conservatorship decision as specified in the July legislation, supported these steps as necessary and appropriate. We have seen benefits of this action in the form of lower mortgage rates, which should help the housing market.

The Federal Reserve and the Treasury attempted to identify private-sector approaches to avoid the imminent failures of AIG and Lehman Brothers, but none was forthcoming. In the case of AIG, the Federal Reserve, with the support of the Treasury, provided an emergency credit line to facilitate an orderly resolution. The Federal Reserve took this action because it judged that, in light of the prevailing market conditions and the size and composition of AIG's obligations, a disorderly failure of AIG would have severely threatened global financial stability and, consequently, the performance of the U.S. economy. To mitigate concerns that this action would exacerbate moral hazard and encourage inappropriate risk-taking in the future, the Federal Reserve ensured that the terms of the credit extended to AIG imposed significant costs and constraints on the firm's owners, managers, and creditors. The chief executive officer has been replaced. The collateral for the loan is the company itself, together with its subsidiaries.1 (Insurance policyholders and holders of AIG investment products are, however, fully protected.) Interest will accrue on the outstanding balance of the loan at a rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points, implying a current interest rate over 11 percent. In addition, the U.S. government will receive equity participation rights corresponding to a 79.9 percent equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders, among other things.

In the case of Lehman Brothers (LEH), a major investment bank, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury declined to commit public funds to support the institution. The failure of Lehman posed risks. But the troubles at Lehman had been well known for some time, and investors clearly recognized--as evidenced, for example, by the high cost of insuring Lehman's debt in the market for credit default swaps--that the failure of the firm was a significant possibility. Thus, we judged that investors and counterparties had had time to take precautionary measures.

While perhaps manageable in itself, Lehman's default was combined with the unexpectedly rapid collapse of AIG (AIG), which together contributed to the development last week of extraordinarily turbulent conditions in global financial markets. These conditions caused equity prices to fall sharply, the cost of short-term credit--where available--to spike upward, and liquidity to dry up in many markets. Losses at a large money market mutual fund sparked extensive withdrawals from a number of such funds. A marked increase in the demand for safe assets--a flight to quality--sent the yield on Treasury bills down to a few hundredths of a percent. By further reducing asset values and potentially restricting the flow of credit to households and businesses, these developments pose a direct threat to economic growth.

The Federal Reserve took a number of actions to increase liquidity and stabilize markets. Notably, to address dollar funding pressures worldwide, we announced a significant expansion of reciprocal currency arrangements with foreign central banks, including an approximate doubling of the existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank and the authorization of new swap facilities with the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. We will continue to work closely with colleagues at other central banks to address ongoing liquidity pressures. The Federal Reserve also announced initiatives to assist money market mutual funds facing heavy redemptions and to increase liquidity in short-term credit markets.

Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and other agencies, global financial markets remain under extraordinary stress. Action by the Congress is urgently required to stabilize the situation and avert what otherwise could be very serious consequences for our financial markets and for our economy. In this regard, the Federal Reserve supports the Treasury's proposal to buy illiquid assets from financial institutions. Purchasing impaired assets will create liquidity and promote price discovery in the markets for these assets, while reducing investor uncertainty about the current value and prospects of financial institutions. More generally, removing these assets from institutions’ balance sheets will help to restore confidence in our financial markets and enable banks and other institutions to raise capital and to expand credit to support economic growth.

At this juncture, in light of the fast-moving developments in financial markets, it is essential to deal with the crisis at hand. Certainly, the shortcomings and weaknesses of our financial markets and regulatory system must be addressed if we are to avoid a repetition of what has transpired in our financial markets over the past year. However, the development of a comprehensive proposal for reform would require careful and extensive analysis that would be difficult to compress into a short legislative timeframe now available. Looking forward, the Federal Reserve is committed to working closely with the Congress, the Administration, other federal regulators, and other stakeholders in developing a stronger, more resilient, and better regulated financial system.


When this is all said and done and history looks back at the current conditions, it is my opinion that Bernanke will be credited with avoiding a 100 year event.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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FINALLY......Schoonover Gone....FINALLY

If Circuit city (CC) shareholders (what few there are left) aren't dancing around like it is Mardi Gras', there isn't anything that will make them do it. After almost a year of my pleading, CEO Phillip "Phil The Shill" Schoonover has finally been asked to "pursue other opportunities".

Schoonover, who served as chairman, president and chief executive officer, was brought in from Best Buy (BBY) four years ago to turn around Circuit City. Instead, the 48-year-old executive, who was named CEO two years ago, presided over a further deterioration in the company.

The latest blunder was when Blockbuster (BBI) offered to buy Circuit City for $1 billion, or about $6 to $8 a share (it currently trades under $2). It ended in July when the Blockbuster rescinded its offer after Circuit City inexplicably would not open its books. That gaffe followed the replacing (firing) of 10% of the highest-paid, most-seasoned staff in the company's stores, in an effort to reduce costs. It turned out those "high paid" people were the only ones who actually knew how to sell the products in the stores. This was evident when only months later the begged them to return.

All these of course follow buyout offers of $17 and $23 a share that Schoonover and his merry band of shareholder wealth destroyers dismissed as "too low" and "inadequate". Uh huh.

What is still disappointing here is that it took this long to finally pull the plug. It is a lesson in giving too much power to a person who has not earned it through results. Circuit city has been in a free fall for two years now and every move Schoonover made only increased the downward velocity. It is one thing to have a deteriorating operating environment, it is another entirely to have management mistake time after time cause conditions to worsen.....for two years!!

Now that this chapter is finally done. we can look at Circuit City. I believe it has a valuable brand, quality real estate in good locations and a valuable franchise in their "Fire Dog" operations. They have just been abysmally run...

I just need to find out more about the current "acting" CEO and wait for the replacement.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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1st Place

nothing to do with investing, but, its been a long time coming for my Buffalo Bills, New York's ONLY team by the way.




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Tuesday's Links

Race, Berkowitz, Whitman, Coaching

- This is at least the 3rd time Obama has used race-baiting

- Good article on Berkowitz, Winters and Whitman. Hat tip Vlado for the heads up

- Marty Whitman's half full glass. Again, thanks Vlado

- Anyone need a "Career Transition" coach? Talk to someone who has done it


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S&P Puts AutoNation on "Credit Watch"

Let's look at this because it really is......well.....odd at best/

First the details:
Standard & Poor’s put AutoNation (AN) on credit watch, citing the U.S. economy and falling auto sales. AutoNation ranks No. 1 on the Automotive News list of top 125 U.S. dealership groups selling over 325,000 new vehicles last year.

Currently AutoNation has a BBB- investment grade from S&P, one step above a junk. The credit watch status, issued Friday by New York analyst Nancy Messer, reflects "conditions that could pressure already weak credit measures well into 2009" and "increased uncertainty" about the length of the auto industry’s downturn and U.S. economic woes.

AutoNation’s corporate credit rating dropped to BBB- in April 2006. S&P changed the company’s outlook last November , from “stable” to “negative,” which indicates a one in three chance S&P will lower the credit rating in the future and the decision to put the company on “credit watch” indicates a 50-50 chance S&P will decrease the credit rating after credit rating officials meet with AutoNation executives in the next 90 days to discuss financial plans.

As of June 30, AutoNation had total balance sheet debt of $1.5 billion, not including floorplan debt, the memo said. In the second quarter of 2008, AutoNation reported the number of new vehicles sold in individual dealerships dropped 12.8 percent from the same quarter in 2007, to 73,545 units.

Now, let's look sat it. AutoNation has, by far, the industry's nest numbers and is solidly profitable. Sure profits has deteriorated (they would be expected to) but this company is by no means at risk of losing money.

This is in the face large dealerships across the country closing their doors, which, will increase AutoNations markets share. In the face of this they are opening Mercedes dealerships in Las Vegas, Orlando and a BMW dealership in_______.

Why wasn't this action done in May? In May CEO Mike Jackson said the auto industry had been "turned upside down" by both high gas and contracting credit conditions, yet S&P was silent.

Now, for the first time in over a year we have some clarity out there that credit conditions may begin to relax as a result of the Treasury's plan.

What is the worst happens? What if the S&P does take action and downgrade AutoNation to junk? Does it effect any debt covenants that could cause a liquidity issue? No. None of AutoNation's debt covenants are tied to their debt rating.

Wouldn't it have made more sense for S&P to have taken this action in May, and now that their is a bit of clarity in credit conditions (In May there was absolutely none) upgrade them from "negative" to "stable"? It seems that S$P is about 6 months behind the curve here. Although, if you have been alive the last year, this ought not be a surprise to anyone.

The bottom line here is the credit agencies are scrambling. They are publicly taking a fair amount of the blame for the current situation were are in and are now going into full "CYA" mode. Rather than looking at company's individually, they are just painting entire industries with the same brush. This action follows similar ones at Ford(F) and GM(GM) and an expected one at Toyota (TM). This is a bit like saying Wells Fargo (WFC) and Washington Mutual (WM) are in the same boat. They clearly aren't. If on looks at Berkshire (BRK.a) Buffett investment #2 CarMax's (KMX) recent results, AutoNation's are still superior.

Aren't we talking about "risk of default" with the ratings anyway? How can they say a company like AutoNation is at a higher risk of default now? The company is very profitable and very cash flow positive. It is without question the cream of the crop in its industry. Think about it this way. If the #1 retailer is at risk of being "junk" then every automaker and every other retailer ought to already be. You can't have #1 rated below those who trail it.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long AN, none
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Monday, September 22, 2008

Goldman & Morgan "May Proceed Immediately"

After announcing yesterday that Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) would need to wait five days, the Fed just rescinded that and said "the transactions may be consummated immediately".

Says the Fed:

Based on consultation with the Department of Justice regarding the applications of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies, the Federal Reserve Board announced on Monday that the transactions may be consummated immediately without the application of the five-day antitrust waiting period.

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SEC Changes the Rules it Changed Friday

How are people supposed to invest in an environment like this? The rules are changing every day? Memo to Chris Cox...get it together.

The SEC issued "Amended Rules" to the rules it changed Friday without notice. Couldn't we take a day or two and issue a order that did not need to be altered twice in 48 hours after it was issued? Too much to ask?

Washington, D.C., Sept. 21, 2008 — The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today approved amendments to its emergency order of September 18 (Release No. 58591) requiring that certain institutional money managers report their new short sales of certain publicly traded securities.
Additional Materials

* Amended Order Requiring Institutional Money Managers to Report New Short Sales
* Form SH (revised)
* Form SH Instructions (revised)

In addition to making technical amendments, the revised order also provides that the information disclosed by investment managers on new Form SH will be nonpublic initially, but will be made available to the public via the Commission’s EDGAR website two weeks after it is electronically filed with the Commission.

The amended order will take effect at 12:01 a.m. EDT on Monday, Sept. 22, 2008.

Under the order, covered institutional money managers will be required to report any new short selling in all equity securities, except options, that are admitted for trading on a national securities exchange or quoted on the automated quotation system of a registered securities association. If any new short sales are effected on September 22 through September 27, the managers are required to submit a report on new Form SH to the Commission on Sept. 29, 2008. These managers are already required to report their long positions in these securities on Form 13F.

The Commission may extend the emergency order beyond its current effective period of 10 business days if it deems an extension necessary in the public interest and for the protection of investors, but will not extend the order for more than 30 calendar days in total duration.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):Disdain for Chris Cox
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Wilbur Ross Talk About Treasury Plan

Am I the only one who just cannot envision Wilbur getting upset?




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Wish I had the $$ to give to Wilbur
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Hank Paulson (video)

The former Goldman Sachs (GS) head in two hour long interviews.

At Harvard in 2004


May, 2007



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GS
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AutoZone Earnings Ups......Lampert Still "Lost It"??

So, all last year CNBC has been running stories about Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert and saying he has "lost it", or word to that effect. Yet, AutoZone (AZO), which Lampert will soon own about 50% of is trading just off an all-time high. The silence from the boob tube is deafening.

AutoZone, which is the largest U.S. auto-parts retailer, reported a 12.2% rise in quarterly profit on Monday.

Net income rose to $243.7 million, or $3.88 per share, in its fiscal fourth quarter that ended August 30, from $217.2 million, or $3.23 per share, a year earlier. Net sales increased 10.4 percent to $2.2 billion and same-store sales, rose 0.6 percent in the quarter.

Now, I still say that something is in the cards for AutoZone (AZO), AutoNation (AN) and Sears Auto. Lampert has controlling stakes in all of them and has friendly Boards to deal with.

Maybe not now, but there are just too many things pointing to it to ignore.




Disclosure ("none" means no position):long SHLD, AN, none
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(update with video) Goldman and Morgan Approved as "Bank Holding Company"

Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) have received approval from the Fed.

From the Fed


The Federal Reserve Board on Sunday approved, pending a statutory five-day antitrust waiting period, the applications of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies.

To provide increased liquidity support to these firms as they transition to managing their funding within a bank holding company structure, the Federal Reserve Board authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to extend credit to the U.S. broker-dealer subsidiaries of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley against all types of collateral that may be pledged at the Federal Reserve's primary credit facility for depository institutions or at the existing Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF); the Federal Reserve has also made these collateral arrangements available to the broker-dealer subsidiary of Merrill Lynch. In addition, the Board also authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to extend credit to the London-based broker-dealer subsidiaries of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch against collateral that would be eligible to be pledged at the PDCF.


Perhaps speculation of either or both making a move for a bank is not so crazy after all? In the case of Morgan, it has all been assumed but Goldman has been at least publicly denying it.

Video:



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long Gs, None
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Dow Chemical JV Update

A couple updates on new Dow Chemical (DOW) JV's.

Dow Izolan, a joint venture between Dow Chemical and Izolan (Vladimir, Russia), has broken ground on a polyurethane (PU) systems plant at Vladimir. Dow says the plant will help meet demand from the “fast-growing” appliance, automotive, construction, consumer products, and furniture markets in Russia. The facility is due onstream in mid-2009.

Saudi Aramco and Dow's giant Ras Tanura petrochemical faces delays as the sheer size of the project complicates design, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) reported.

Dow's investment in the plant, estimated at $22 billion, will be the largest single foreign investment in Saudi Arabia's energy sector. The plant, due to begin production in 2012 had awarded KBR (KBR)the front-end engineering and design contract for the plant in July 2007, but that contract will be split and partly awarded to another company, MEES reported, citing industry sources.

"Around 2 million man hours of work, covering utilities and offsites and some aromatics units have been taken off KBR and will be given to another firm, leading to delays," the weekly MEES reported.

I'm not sure this really qualifies as a "delay" as the original time frame for the project was 2011-2012. I am guessing that the 2011 part of the equation isn't going to happen. Not really all that big a deal as they are still in the ballpark and a whole lot of time can be made up between now and 2011.

The Russian JV shows a ton of promise. It is also fraught with risk due to Putin. One has to consider the very real lesson Mr. Putin learned the past couple week watching his country's stock market and currency plunge after the Georgian actions. Far from politician's teaching him a lesson, the market will enact a far more severe cost to him. That being said, one can only hope the reality of the world he now lives in is sinking in.

That being said, the Russian JV is not critical project like Ras Tanura but event in Russia will now bear a closer eye. One can only hope markets have taught Putin a lesson he needed to learn.


Disclosure: Long Dow
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A Review: "Once in Golconda"

I cannot recommend this book enough.

Backround from the Saturday Review:

Once in Golconda "In this book, John Brooks-who was one of the most elegant of all business writers-perfectly catches the flavor of one of history's best-known financial dramas: the 1929 crash and its aftershocks. It's packed with parallels and parables for the modern reader." -From the Foreword by Richard Lambert Editor-in-Chief, The Financial Times Once in Golconda is a dramatic chronicle of the breathtaking rise, devastating fall, and painstaking rebirth of Wall Street in the years between the wars. Focusing on the lives and fortunes of some of the era's most memorable traders, bankers, boosters, and frauds, John Brooks brings to vivid life all the ruthlessness, greed, and reckless euphoria of the '20s bull market, the desperation of the days leading up to the crash of '29, and the bitterness of the years that followed. Praise for Once in Golconda "A fast-moving, sophisticated account.embracing the stock-market boom of the twenties, the crash of 1929, the Depression, and the coming of the New Deal. Its leitmotif is the truly tragic personal history of Richard Whitney, the aristocrat Morgan broker and head of the Stock Exchange, who ended up in Sing Sing." -Edmund Wilson, writing in the New Yorker "As Mr. Brooks tells this tale of dishonor, desperation, and the fall of the mighty, it takes on overtones of Greek tragedy, a king brought down by pride. Whitney's sordid history has been told before..But in Mr. Brooks's hands, the drama becomes freshly shocking." -Wall Street Journal "It's all there in Once in Golconda-the avarice of an era that favored the rich; and the later anguish of myriads of speculators doomed by a bloated market, easy credit, and their own cupidity and stupidity."




If you read this for no other reason, it will assure you that "this time" is not really different. These boom bust cycles always happen, whether it be tech, housing or credit. You cannot legislate and regulated away people emotions when it comes to money. If anything, the more you try to regulate them, the more folks seem to become determined to find a way around those regulations and it typically involves more risk/reward, thus the bubble then pop (see "liar loans" or $100 tech stocks than ignored earnings).

By walking through history perhaps the reader will be able to put current events in a historical context, be able to see the "how's" of the end of the crisis (not necessarily the "when's") and be better able to control oneself when the talking heads on TV or the MSM do their best to try and make you jump out of your office window everytime the Dow falls 300 points.

What was of particular interest was what "was to blame" for the 1929 crash and what followed:

1- "Short Sellers"
2- Banks
3- "Speculators"
4- Excess leverage
5- Lack of Gov't regulation

Did any of them work? No...It was the war and the energy it out into business that did the trick...not Gov't "engineering".

Geez.....glad we have managed to avoid the same pitfalls now that were are allegedly almost 80 years wiser.

So, in the past eighty years we increased regulation, enacted capital requirements, separated investment houses from banks, set margin rates and yet...here we are.

You cannot, under any circumstances regulate stupidity and greed, no matter how hard you try.

It really was a great book.

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Monday's Links

Save $$, Sprint, Sotheby's, SEC

- This is kool, save money on some bills

- Better but still needs a ton of work'

- George has a very interesting buy here

- Some more blame for the SEC

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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Sears Holdings Responds to Fitch Action

Let's just call this what it is, the rating agencies, tired of looking like duplicitous dopes in the current credit environment, are going to cut a swath through businesses downgrading or putting them on "watch" in a classic "CYA" move.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Responds:
Today Fitch Ratings ("Fitch") issued a press release in which it downgraded the ratings associated with certain of Sears Holdings Corporation's ("SHC") outstanding debt obligations. SHC does not agree with Fitch's action given our current liquidity position, reduced debt levels, demonstrated history of cash flow generation and available assets. We believe that we are being unfairly treated, as many of our biggest competitors have dramatically increased debt levels over the past several years with little or no consequence to their ratings.

SHC has consistently maintained a strong capital structure and generated significant cash flow from operations. In fact, SHC has generated $5.2 billion of operating cash since the merger and $1.5 billion last year. The $4 billion credit facility entered into at the time of the Sears/Kmart merger was structured to provide significantly more liquidity than Sears Holdings anticipated requiring in order to provide flexibility to fund our working capital needs and to pursue a variety of value creating strategies. Since the merger in March 2005, the largest amount outstanding under the facility at any time to date has been $1.8 billion, of which $1 billon represented standby letters of credit issued primarily to support our insurance programs. Over this same period, SHC has paid down approximately $2 billion of the outstanding debt assumed from Sears at the time of the merger. SHC has also made contributions of approximately $1 billion to fund the frozen pension plans of its predecessor companies. This credit facility, by its terms, continues through March 2010 and carries no financial ratio covenants that are applicable (the financial ratio covenants contained in the agreement are only applicable at SHC's election).
SHC has significant assets, including cash of $1.5 billion, owned and attractive long-term leased real estate, a stable of nationally recognized proprietary brands (Kenmore, Craftsman, Lands' End and DieHard) and a 70% equity interest in Sears Canada. In addition, SHC has $9 billion of inventory that currently secures the $4 billion credit facility.

We wish to thank Fitch for retracting the incorrect statement that appeared in its Retail Register Report published on September 17, 2008 in which reference was made to concerns stemming from the elimination of the Bank of America cash-backed letter of credit facility. As noted in the correction issued today by Fitch, that facility did not provide incremental liquidity over and above the existing $4 billion credit facility. The Bank of America facility was designed as a less expensive means for Sears Holdings to issue letters of credit at a time when we had several billions of dollars of excess cash with which to collateralize the facility. With lower cash levels, the facility no longer made economic or operational sense and was significantly reduced, with a small amount retained to continue certain outstanding international letters of credit. Bank of America continues to hold one of the largest commitments in our existing $4 billion credit agreement.

Given that Fitch's rating change utilizes mid-year debt levels and credit metrics, we have requested that Fitch monitor our credit rating for upgrade as soon as the calculations on which their decision is based no longer govern. At a time when many companies are suffering from excessive leverage undertaken over the past several years, Sears Holdings is well positioned from decisions we made to reduce our leverage since the merger and to allow for the inevitable cycles that tend to occur in the retail business.


Now, Sears has a balance sheet second only to Target (TGT) and WalMart (WMT) in retail. That being said, I think either a slew of retail credit downgrade are coming OR and this is the most likely one, the rating agencies are just running around trying to figure out what went wrong.

As they run around, they are cutting everything in sight. This, the irony here is that they are cutting rating, just as we have clarity (some at least) and things looks like they may finally stabilize.

This will be yet another case of them cutting too late, then finally taking action just when things get better..


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD, WMT, none.
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WaMu, Citi or Wells Fargo

Who is it going to be?

The WSJ Reported:
Citigroup Inc. (C), moving to take advantage of the turmoil that is hobbling banks throughout the U.S., is considering making a bid for Washington Mutual Inc. (WM), according to people familiar with the situation.

"People view us today as being a source of the solution, instead of part of the problem," Gary Crittenden, Citigroup's chief financial officer, said in an interview. He declined to comment specifically about WaMu.

Citigroup and several other banks are reviewing the Seattle thrift-holding company's books, which are packed with shaky mortgages, people familiar with the matter said Thursday. Other interested parties include Banco Santander SA, of Spain, and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), of San Francisco. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), which was spurned by WaMu earlier this year, is biding its time on a potential bid, people close to J.P. Morgan said.


Who will be the winner? Let's look.

JP Morgan has its hand full digesting Bear Sterns (BSC). While it does have the balance sheet to do a deal, doing so with the Bear liabilities hanging on it and then adding those of WaMu might just tax things a bit much for CEO Jamie Dimon's comfort.

Citi. Well, if Pandit has promised to shed $400 billion or so in "non core" assets, I think the likely hood of Citi being a prime bidder would be enhance were he to do it first. Citi is much more likely to be a buyer of much smaller regional banks.

Wells Fargo. The best bet in the lot. I has no current integration issues like Morgan does and is in a infinitely stronger position that Citi. If WaMu is going to get an offer, my guess is that now Wells can unload many of the undesirable mortgages WaMu holds to Hank Paulson, the thrift becomes a bit more appealing at its current $4 a share price.




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long C, WFC, none
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Jessie Livermore Video

Now, I do not for a second condone trading like this, but, this is still very interesting...more history




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Saturday, September 20, 2008

Wow....Bye, Bye Lehman and I (to American Pie Music)

This is a classic...

From the FT:

Click here for music to go along with words

A long, long time ago,
I can still remember,
How much wealth there was in the Square Mile,
And I knew that if I had my chance,
I could make it in finance,
And maybe I’d have money for a while.

But subprime assets made me shiver,
With every product I’d deliver,
Bad news in the press(es),
Just look at those CDSs.

I can’t remember if I cried,
When my salary was pushed aside,
But something resounded worldwide,
The week the IB died.

So bye, bye, Lehman Brothers (LEH) and I,
Needed credit to get better but the credit was dry,
Hank Paulson’s Fed had carved up the pie,
Saying, AIG’s (AIG) too big to die,
AIG is too big to die.

Why’d Fuld wait, put all at stake,
Did he think he’d make more at a later date?
Greedy finance tycoons,
Now Barclay’s buying, let’s be frank,
A pretty cheap investment bank,
Can you hire me, real soon?

Well, I know that it’s a lot to ask,
When Einhorn’s taken us to task,
Using our balance sheet to guise,
Our level 3 assets’ demise.

Now Morgan Stanley’s (MS) feeling short,
And BofA’s (BAC) Merrill’s (MER) last resort,
The banking system’s pretty morte,
The week the IB died.

I was saying,
Bye, bye, Lehman Brothers and I,
Needed credit to get better but the credit was dry,
Hank Paulson’s Fed had carved up the pie,
Saying, AIG’s too big to die,
AIG is too big to die.

Now for four years we’d been on the phone,
Selling mezzanine CDOs,
But that’s not how it used to be,
When Dick came in, we just did bonds,
Good thing he helped us right that wrong,
By buying Aurora Loan LLC,

Oh, and while the Fed was looking ‘round,
They thought they’d try and shoot us down,
The market was all broken,
Bank lending was a croakin’,
And while we unwind our trading book,
The head hunters all have a look,
The hedge funds are put on the hook,
The week the IB died,

I was saying,
Bye, bye, Lehman Brothers and I,
Needed credit to get better but the credit was dry,
Hank Paulson’s Fed had carved up the pie,
Saying, AIG’s too big to die,
AIG is too big to die…

Here is the original post



Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Kass Defends the Short Sellers

Doug Kass must annoy those who attack short sellers. He uses these annoying things like facts to prove them wrong.

Kass discusses Lehman (LEH), Merrill (MER), Morgan Stanley (MS)



Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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"Freaky" Weekend Viewing

Here is an interview by Charlie Rose with Levitt and Dubner, Co-authors of Freakonomics.




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Friday, September 19, 2008

Bogle and Heebner Talk US Business

John Bogle put this week in perspective. "If you think the intrinsic value of US business rose and fell by a trillion dollars this week, you are nuts". Amen..




Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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The Week's Top Stories at VIN

Here are the top stories for the week at Value investing News


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Acronym for Paulson's Plan

People have been asking all day what it is called...I've got it

The "Securitization & Housing Investment Trust" or SHIT for short


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1929..........On Film...More on "Golconda"

I am on a history kick after reading "Once in Golconda". Here are eyewitness accounts to 1929 and the aftermath. As you watch it, you'll be struck by the similarities..



Here is the book:


Here is a book about Jessie Livermore


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Ambac Faces Downgrade

Ambac (ABK) has been placed on review from Moody's for a possible downgrade

From the SEC filing

On September 18, 2008, Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) announced that it was placing the ratings of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (“Ambac”) and its subsidiaries on review for downgrade. Ambac expects to continue to work with Moody’s as the rating agency seeks to apply its most recent mortgage-related assumptions to unique attributes of the individual transactions in Ambac’s portfolio. Moody’s stated that because Ambac is meaningfully exposed to the risk of US subprime mortgages and other residential mortgage products, the revised assumptions are expected to have a significant impact on Ambac’s capital position and multi-notch downgrades are possible.

Now, this would be a legitimate reason to short this stock......but you can't now.

Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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SEC Bans Short Sales....For Now

Yes, stock will rise but it is a bit like celebrating a touchdown when the other team is not allowed to play defense.

The SEC has banned short sales
in 799 institutions from midnight Friday, until Oct. 2nd (unless extended).

Said the order:
As a result of these recent developments, the Commission has concluded that there continues to exist the potential of sudden and excessive fluctuations of securities prices generally and disruption in the functioning of the securities markets that could threaten fair and orderly markets. Based on this conclusion, the Commission is exercising its powers under Section 12(k)(2) of the Act.2 Pursuant to Section 12(k)(2), in appropriate circumstances the Commission may issue summarily an order to alter, supplement, suspend, or impose requirements or restrictions with respect to matters or actions subject to regulation by the Commission if the Commission determines such an order is necessary in the public interest and for the protection of investors to maintain or restore fair and orderly securities markets.

In these unusual and extraordinary circumstances, we have concluded that, to prevent substantial disruption in the securities markets, temporarily prohibiting any person from effecting a short sale in the publicly traded securities of certain financial firms, which entities are identified in Appendix A (“Included Financial Firms”), is in the public interest and for the protection of investors to maintain or restore fair and orderly securities markets.


Also, short sellers will have to now disclose their short positions. This is the same as if they were long a stock or security. This, is as it should be..

Now, the banning of short sales is just ridiculous. Short selling is not illegal, naked shorting is. Had the SEC done ANYTHING about naked shorting in the last few years, this would not be an issue. One could argue we would not be in the predicament we are in had the SEC done ANYTHING about naked shorting, ANYTHING.

Rather than issuing a string of memos and holding hearings about it, perhaps an action or two against those guilty of naked shorting would have actually curbed those guilty of the practice? Had we not had naked shorts in the market the oast 6 months, you could easily make the argument Lehman (LEH) would still be here and Merrill (MER) would not have had to sell.

It isn't the act of shorting that is wrong, it is the abuse of it that is. SEC Commish Chris Cox and the SEC STILL have not done ANYTHING to actually eliminate the practice. All they have done is out it on hold for a couple weeks.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Friday's Links

HOG, Mack, Recession, Dodge ball

- Has held up great during the recent panic and yields 3.3%.

- OK, copying the Dick Fuld has to be the days worst idea

- Finally some sanity

- One of the funniest movies of all time........



Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Wilbur Ross Allowed to Build Assured Stake

Looks like Wilbur Ross is going for a bigger slice..

Market Watch Reports:

Assured Guarantee (AGO) said late Thursday that it has provided a waiver allowing investment funds managed by WL Ross to purchase up to 5 million additional common shares of Assured Guaranty. The shares purchased by the WL Ross Funds will be from current shareholders and as a result will not result in an increase in shareholders' equity. If WL Ross buys all 5 million shares, it would beneficially own 17.2 million shares or about 18.9% of Assured's outstanding common shares as of June 3

Ross built his initial stake following a $250 million private placement with the company back in May.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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Ratigan Lays Into S&P Ratings Head

Finally, somebody takes the ratings agencies to task publicly.




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Flashback to 1997, GE at $23 (update with article)

Yeah, 1997 was the last time you could have bought shares of GE (GE) at $23. The difference? Now that price comes with a 5.3% yield and shares trade at 10 times earnings, not the 24 times they traded at then.

In the latest quarter, global revenues growth was +24% (emerging markets +20%, developed (ex. U.S.) +26%, U.S. (2)%).

What's the problem? Fears over GE Financial Services. In Q2, Commercial Finance earnings grew 7%, GE Money fell 9%.

The fears at GE Money are overblown. GE Money encompasses roughly 13% of profits at GE. Let's assume earnings for the year, about $4 billion are wiped out. It won't, because GE Money is not structured in the "borrow long, lend short" model that is currently crippling financial institutions. They underwrite to hold. In consumer mortgages (UK), they are self funded and have a mortgage LTV of 70%, meaning mortgage holders on average have 30% equity. In consumer credit, the current delinquency rate is 5%, not bad. But, for arguments sake, let's say earnings are gone. That would still leave GE with approx. $20 billion in earnings of $1.97 a share. That still leaves GE trading at 11.6 times earnings and yielding 5%.

GE is saying Commercial Finance earnings ought to decline in Q3 10% to 15% and GE Money ought to grow 0% to 5%. Hardly the desperate scenario the markets are currently pricing into the stock price. What is of interest is that revenue growth at both divisions ought to grow 5% to 10%.

GE, during the Q2 results presentation forecast 3Q’08 continuing EPS outlook of $.50-.54, (0-8% growth)and said they were on track for 2008 guidance, $2.20-2.30, (0-5% growth).

Now CEO Jeff Immelt got himself in hot water when in the spring he stated 15% EPS growth for this year was "in the bag". Because of that there is now a slight cloud of skepticism over him and the company. The only way to erase it is to perform and show it to be an aberration. That, will take time. Coming through the current relatively unscathed would be a huge first step.

Ge is currently being price not as the conglomerate it is, but as a financial service company. That, has created a great buying opportunity....

I think I just may bite soon..

Here is a recent WSJ article on the subject



Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Wells Fargo Buying.....What?

Some thoughts on the "candy" Wells Fargo (WFC) may be after..

Reuters Reports:
The chairman of the No. 2 U.S. mortgage bank said on Wednesday that his company was "buying with both hands" and, given the distressed state of financial assets, he felt "like a kid in a candy store."

Wells Fargo (WFC) Chairman Richard Kovacevich declined to comment to Reuters at a conference in Beverly Hills, California, on whether the company is interested in buying Washington Mutual Inc (WM) or Wachovia Corp (WB) but indicated he was interested in buying other banks in distress.

"Wells Fargo often buys fixer uppers," companies that have had some hard knocks and can be rehabilitated in two or three years, he said in a speech at the Association of Corporate Growth 2008 conference. "Given the financial conditions today I feel like a kid in a candy store. There is a lot out there today."

"We are buying with both hands right now, as we have done for the past year," Kovacevich said, describing himself as a "confessed serial acquirer."


Well, we know they are buying insurance operations around the country. Banking? CEO John Stumpf recently said a "large transformational deal was unlikely".

Does that rule out WB or WM? I think it it means they pick up branches, rather than the whole thing. Or, it means maybe that as Wells looks at the books of the most mentioned two banks, things are not really as bad there as people currently think vs the price they can be had at.

I would be very surprised at an outright buy.....pieces? Yes.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long WB,WFC, none
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Now SEC Increases Rhetoric

SEC Commish Chris cox is getting real good with the memo thing...

Less than 24 hours after yesterday's note, Cox gives us this.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

2008-209

Washington, D.C., Sept. 17, 2008 — Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and SEC Enforcement Division Director Linda Chatman Thomsen issued the following statements today concerning ongoing and forthcoming Commission actions to investigate fraud and manipulation in the nation's securities markets:

"Millions of investors entrust their savings to our securities markets because they can be confident that our markets are orderly, liquid, efficient, and rational," said Chairman Cox. "The turmoil in today's markets, particularly in the financial sector, is challenging that assumption for ordinary Americans. Markets are the best tool a free society has to price and allocate assets across a complex economy, but as is well known from experience, sometimes the wisdom of crowds is supplanted by crowd behavior. We need well-functioning markets to help us draw the line between reasonable miscalculation and error or something worse involving the failure of due diligence, self-dealing, and conflicts of interest. It is thus vitally important that the market mechanism continue to inspire investor confidence.

"In order to ensure that hidden manipulation, illegal naked short selling, or illegitimate trading tactics do not drive market behavior and undermine confidence, the SEC today took several actions to address short selling abuses," Chairman Cox continued. "In addition to these initiatives, which will take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, I am asking the Commission to consider on an emergency basis a new disclosure rule that will require hedge funds and other large investors to disclose their short positions. Prepared by the staffs of the Division of Investment Management and the Division of Corporation Finance, the new rule will be designed to ensure transparency in short selling. Managers with more than $100 million invested in securities would be required to promptly begin public reporting of their daily short positions. The managers currently report their long positions to the SEC."

Chairman Cox continued, "Director Thomsen and the Division of Enforcement will also expand their ongoing investigations by undertaking a series of additional enforcement measures against market manipulation. The Enforcement Division will obtain disclosure from significant hedge funds and other institutional traders of their past trading positions in specific securities. Those institutions will also be required immediately to secure all of their communication records in anticipation of subpoenas for these records."

SEC Director of Enforcement Linda Chatman Thomsen said, "The Enforcement Division has been investigating and will continue to investigate any suggestion of manipulative trading. We are committed to using every weapon in our arsenal to combat market manipulation that threatens investors and capital markets."

The Commission is actively considering additional actions as appropriate.


I guess the question has to be.....why haven't we required short-seller disclosure before? We have been complaining for years about short sellers, why not require disclosure? All I have heard from the SEC is "transparency", yet, nothing has been done until now, the actually move towards it? Even at that, it is still "just a thought", not an action.

The SEC needs to actually do something.....save us the memos.



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Hank Greenberg Talks (9/16)

This video with Charlie Rose was done the eve of the Gov't AIG (AIG) bailout..




Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Thursday's Links

Rumors, Twitter, Bogle, Gumshoe

- Jeff Mathews makes a good point

- This is a great product

- Can't wait to read his books

- Is it just me or do these scam seem to proliferate during booms and busts


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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

David Einhorn Cuts Helix Energy Stake

In a just filed SEC notice, David Einhorn and Greenlight Capital sold 3.58 million shares of Helix Energy (HLX) at $26.40 a share.

The move come just a day after he added shares at prices between $26 and $28 each.


Today's Full SEC filing




Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Morgan Stanley Considers Merger With Wachovia

WOW. What a couple weeks this will have been..

Goldman Sachs (GS) will be the last investment bank standing if there is any truth to this rumor.

The NY Times is reporting
Morgan Stanley(MS) CEO John Mack received a call over the weekend from Wachovia (WB) CEO Bob Steel about a possible merger.

Mack is reported to have said he is considering the idea...


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long WB, none
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Longs Dismisses Higher Walgreen's Offer

Ok, has managament at Longs Drugs (LDG) never heard of Bill Ackman?

Market Watch Reports:

Longs Drug said its board won't have negotiations or provide due diligence materials Walgreen was seeking. It also said Walgreen (WAG) has given no assurances the deal will be completed as it gave no timetable. Walgreen on Friday told Longs it was looking to offer $75 a share, subject to additional due diligence. Walgreen said it was "confident" it could secure antitrust approvals and had hired two real estate investment firms to handle potential store sales.

"We are disappointed with the refusal of the Longs board to discuss our superior proposal," Walgreen said in a statement. "We remain committed to pursuing our proposal, which we believe creates superior value for our respective stockholders."


This should be criminal. Longs has nothing to lose in negotiating with Walgreen. Why? the CVS tender offer is a one year deal. That gives Longs one year to find a better offer. In that time they could assure Walgreen can complete the deal and run it by the FTC.

Longs has rejected shareholder attempts to look at the company's lease agreements. Now, Ackman's Pershing has an economic interest in 26% of Long's shares. How can you deny someone who has 26% of the stock a look at the books? How?

When did the interest of management trump the rights of stockholders as owners? This is as blatant an example as I have seen. One can argue about golden parachutes and their legitimacy all day but to deny a 26% owner a look at the leases of the company he owns, it should be illegal.

At least one thing will come of this. The next letter Ackman fires off the Long's will be a classic. I'll have it for you as soon as I get it.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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SEC Goes After Naked Short Sales: More Talk, Still No Action

OK, let's just ignore the obvious off color jokes we could probably run with for another 200 words. That being said, readers know I am not a fan of SEC Commish Cris Cox and his tenure. Simply put, if you have a rule, enforce it and remove it as a rule. Cox has done nothing about "naked shots" sales for years now despite constantly talking about it. Do something about it or shut up. Let's look.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2008-204

Washington, D.C., Sept. 17, 2008 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today took several coordinated actions to strengthen investor protections against "naked" short selling. The Commission's actions will apply to the securities of all public companies, including all companies in the financial sector. The actions are effective at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008.

"These several actions today make it crystal clear that the SEC has zero tolerance for abusive naked short selling," said SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. "The Enforcement Division, the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations, and the Division of Trading and Markets will now have these weapons in their arsenal in their continuing battle to stop unlawful manipulation."

In an ordinary short sale, the short seller borrows a stock and sells it, with the understanding that the loan must be repaid by buying the stock in the market (hopefully at a lower price). But in an abusive naked short transaction, the seller doesn't actually borrow the stock, and fails to deliver it to the buyer. For this reason, naked shorting can allow manipulators to force prices down far lower than would be possible in legitimate short-selling conditions.

Today's Commission actions, which are the result of rulemaking under the Administrative Procedure Act, go beyond its previously issued emergency order, which was limited to the securities of financial firms with access to the Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Because the agency's exercise of its emergency authority is limited to 30 days, the previous order under Section 12(k)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 expired on Aug. 12, 2008.

The Commission's actions were as follows:
Hard T+3 Close-Out Requirement; Penalties for Violation Include Prohibition of Further Short Sales, Mandatory Pre-Borrow

The Commission adopted, on an interim final basis, a new rule requiring that short sellers and their broker-dealers deliver securities by the close of business on the settlement date (three days after the sale transaction date, or T+3) and imposing penalties for failure to do so.

If a short sale violates this close-out requirement, then any broker-dealer acting on the short seller's behalf will be prohibited from further short sales in the same security unless the shares are not only located but also pre-borrowed. The prohibition on the broker-dealer's activity applies not only to short sales for the particular naked short seller, but to all short sales for any customer.

Although the rule will be effective immediately, the Commission is seeking comment during a period of 30 days on all aspects of the rule. The Commission expects to follow further rulemaking procedures at the expiration of the comment period.
Exception for Options Market Makers from Short Selling Close-Out Provisions in Reg SHO Repealed

The Commission approved a final rule to eliminate the options market maker exception from the close-out requirement of Rule 203(b)(3) in Regulation SHO. This rule change also becomes effective at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008.

As a result, options market makers will be treated in the same way as all other market participants, and required to abide by the hard T+3 closeout requirements that effectively ban naked short selling.
Rule 10b-21 Short Selling Anti-Fraud Rule

The Commission adopted Rule 10b-21, which expressly targets fraudulent short selling transactions. The new rule covers short sellers who deceive broker-dealers or any other market participants. Specifically, the new rule makes clear that those who lie about their intention or ability to deliver securities in time for settlement are violating the law when they fail to deliver. This rule also becomes effective at 12:01 a.m. ET on Thursday.


So, how is any of what is being describe about a investor issue? I use Etrade. If I want to short a stock, I go through them. They either tell me there are shares available or not.

If the shares are not available to shot and the broker allows the short sale, they are the responsible party, no?

Even with all this, the "new/old rule" still does not take effect for 30 days pending "comment". In other words, sell away boys until mid-October. This isn't a matter of more or less regulation, this is a simple mater of enforcing rules already on the books. One cannot even consider Cox a "free market" guy, just impudent.

How long have we been hearing the same song? At least two year off the top of my head. Naked shorting is rampant as witnessed in a Sears Holdings (SHLD) post on it I did. Cox just needs to do something and stop issuing press releases, blaming the wrong parties and asking for comment. Either ban it and stop it, or allow it.

Do something, anything, just stop talking about it



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long SHLD.
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Wednesday's Links

McCain, Target, Doom, Master's

- Not that most of us already did not know this, but a review of records indicates McCain has reaches across the isle far more than Obama

- Isn't it almost always bad news for shareholders when companies buy stadium naming rights?

- Let's hope his streak ends

- The StockMaster's make a great point


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Phillip Morris Completes Acquisition

Phillip Morris International (PM) has closed the acquisition of Canadian cigarette maker Rothmans Inc. after receiving Canadian Gov't approval.

Philip Morris said owners of about 47 million shares or 68% of the company, had accepted its offer of 30 Canadian dollars (about $28.16) per share. It will pay for those shares on Friday. They extended their offer by 10 days to allow shareholders to tender remaining shares.

This follows an industry trend of consolidation. Altria (MO) said earlier this month that it would buy smokeless tobacco maker UST (UST). And in January, Imperial Tobacco (IMT) bought Franco-Spanish company Altadis.There is much speculation about a possible eventual buyout of Lorillard (LO), which was spun off from the Loews (L) recently.

In Q2, PM started production of Marlboro cigarettes at two factories in China and have a partnership with the state-owned China National Tobacco, the only tobacco company in the world larger than Philip Morris International itself.

Rothmans owns 60% of Rothmans, Benson & Hedges Inc., which makes and sells cigarettes including Benson & Hedges, Craven A and Mark Ten. Philip Morris owns the remaining 40%.

PM pays 4% dividend and is growing earnings 15% to 20% in a market it has just begun to enter full force. this is one of those "buy it and put it away" investments.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long PM, Mo, none
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Walter Schloss Talks Value

The guy Berkshire's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett admires talks about how e chooses companies.




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In Case You Haven't Heard

With all the myopic focus on Merrill (MER), Lehman (LEH), AIG (AIG), Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE) the last 2 weeks days, there are some other things going on..


- Did you hear about Ike? Can't help but notice the apathy in the media towards those affected

- Oil looks to fall below $90

- ABC's Brian Ross appears to think Sarah Palin is the only candidate in the election.

- The NFL Season has started (Thank God).....

- The Yankees season is officially over.....

- Housing? Still sucks...

Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

AIG Lives Another Day, Shareholders, Not So Much

It's official, AIG (AIG) will not go under. Here are the details...


Fed Release

The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday, with the full support of the Treasury
Department, authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lend up to $85 billion to the American International Group (AIG) under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The secured loan has terms and conditions designed to protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers.

The Board determined that, in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth, and materially weaker economic performance.

The purpose of this liquidity facility is to assist AIG in meeting its obligations as they come due. This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy.

The AIG facility has a 24-month term. Interest will accrue on the outstanding balance at a rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points. AIG will be permitted to draw up to $85 billion under the facility.

The interests of taxpayers are protected by key terms of the loan. The loan is collateralized by all the assets of AIG, and of its primary non-regulated subsidiaries. These assets include the stock of substantially all of the regulated subsidiaries. The loan is expected to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale of the firm’s assets. The U.S. government will receive a 79.9 percent equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders.


This had to be done and it is being done in a way that current shareholders, will see little benefit for quite some time (if ever if they bought shares last year). The market really did hold its own through Bear Sterns (BSC), Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE) , Lehman (LEH) and Merrill (MER). There are, however, only so many shots anyone can take before throwing in the towel and AIG may just have been that final shot for the market and its participants.

What does remain to be seen is who starts picking up pieces of it now that the process will begin.

No word yet on any management changes. More tomorrow..


Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Greenlight's David Einhorn Adds to Helix Energy Stake

In a just released SEC filing, David Einhorn, through his various Greenlight entities added another 1.25 million shares of Helix (HLX)


Full SEC Filing


In a filing last week
, Einhorn disclosed a 11% of 10.2 million share stake in the energy services company.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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Fed Sits Tight......Good

The Fed did not lower rates today at 2:15.

The Fed said:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further. Economic growth appears to have slowed recently, partly reflecting a softening of household spending. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.

Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.

The downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Ms. Cumming voted as the alternate for Timothy F. Geithner.
2008 Monetary Policy Releases


Release:


Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Follow on Twitter

Have finally found a way to post trade info for all...Twitter.

Just sign up for a Twitter account (it takes 15 seconds) and then "follow" me. Any trades I make will be posted there along with other tidbits. It is a great way to communicate also.

Now, if you download the free Twirl app to your desktop, you can follow live.

I really recommend it.



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Why AIG Won't Fail...Update With Patterson Video

It would be catastrophic to State's already tapped out budgets.

What do I mean? In Massachusetts, if an insurer goes under, its claims go to an "insolvency fund". Most State have similar statutes. An AIG (AIG) collapse, being the largest insurer, would destroy the value of these funds as they are not sufficiently capitalized to handle a collapse the size of AIG, nor are they staffed to handle to onslaught of claims that would then flow their way.

The Massachusetts Insurers Insolvency Fund (the "Fund"), created by Mass. Gen. L. c. 175D, is a nonprofit unincorporated association of all insurers writing liability and property insurance in the Commonwealth. It is available to settle up to $300,000 per claim that arises from an insurance policy issued by an insolvent insurer. The Fund's obligations and expenses are met by mandatory contributions by all liability and property insurers who write insurance in the Commonwealth.


The States would then be on the handle for these claims while, they waited perhaps a decade to e reimbursed from the bankruptcy proceeding. State do have the money now to repair roads and fund schools, do we really think they can handle the trillion dollars of liabilities AIG has? Me either. 25 states currently operate in a deficit, there isn't any more money from them to handle these claims.

Watch NY Govenor David Patterson on CNBC this morning:



Patterson almost gets into it but avoids the "forget about AIG, think about us" statement.

I bought some AIG
at $2.35 today, a small amount since it is still very risky. I just do not see the States, and by association, Paulson, allowing it to go under. Whatever it costs them to keep it solvent it far less than a failure will cost them.

We'll see....fortunately with this trade, it will not take very long to know how it worked out..


Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Why AIG Won't Fail...........

It would be catastrophic to State's already tapped out budgets.

What do I mean? In Massachusetts, if an insurer goes under, its claims go to an "insolvency fund". Most State have similar statutes. An AIG (AIG) collapse, being the largest insurer, would destroy the value of these funds as they are not sufficiently capitalized to handle a collapse the size of AIG, nor are they staffed to handle to onslaught of claims that would then flow their way.

The Massachusetts Insurers Insolvency Fund (the "Fund"), created by Mass. Gen. L. c. 175D, is a nonprofit unincorporated association of all insurers writing liability and property insurance in the Commonwealth. It is available to settle up to $300,000 per claim that arises from an insurance policy issued by an insolvent insurer. The Fund's obligations and expenses are met by mandatory contributions by all liability and property insurers who write insurance in the Commonwealth.


The States would then be on the handle for these claims while, they waited perhaps a decade to e reimbursed from the bankruptcy proceeding. State do have the money now to repair roads and fund schools, do we really think they can handle the trillion dollars of liabilities AIG has? Me either. 25 states currently operate in a deficit, there isn't any more money from them to handle these claims.

Watch NY Govenor David Patterson on CNBC this morning: (video coming in updated post later)


Patterson almost get into it but avoids the "forget about AIG, think about us" statement.

I bought some AIG
at $2.35 today, a small amount since it is still very risky. I just do not see the States, and by association, Paulson, allowing it to go under. Whatever it costs them to keep it solvent it far less than a failure will cost them.

We'll see....fortunately with this trade. it will not take very long to know how it worked out..


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Now Long AIG,
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Wells Fargo on Lehman: "Tis But a Scratch"

Did anyone else the first financial institution to report its exposure to Lehman (LEH) was Wells Fargo (WFC), and they did so just hours after Lehman was toast?

Wells Fargo Reported in an SEC filing:

In connection with the filing today by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Lehman Brothers) of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition, Wells Fargo & Company (the Company) will record other-than-temporary impairment and take a non-cash charge to earnings in third quarter 2008 for investments in senior unsecured notes and perpetual preferred securities issued by Lehman Brothers. The Company’s investments in the notes and preferred securities are included in securities available for sale at a cost of approximately $90 million and $109 million, respectively. The notes currently trade at 25-30 cents on the dollar. The preferred securities currently trade at less than one percent of par value. The Company estimates that as of September 12, 2008, it had approximately $50 million of unsecured counterparty exposure to Lehman Brothers. The Company has no direct lending exposure to Lehman Brothers, and the Wells Fargo Advantage Money Market Funds do not have any direct exposure to Lehman Brothers


In other words, the Lehman filing is essentially irrelevant ti Wells Fargo and its shareholders. It kind of rains on the "systemic risk" scenario being bantered about on TV by the talking heads. Perhaps the risk is only systemic to those institutions that were careless, and that those who were not will simply end up in a better position after all this is over?

It does give the "let them fail" camp more ammo. This is not to say what is happening is a good thing, it is to say perhaps it is not the end of days scenario we keep hearing about.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long WFC, none
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Goldman Reports: Good/Bad News

So, the "King of the Hill" for investment banks reported this morning and Goldman Sachs (GS), is still at the top of the heap, it is at the top of a much smaller heap.

Goldman reported "net revenues of $6.04 billion and net earnings of $845 million for its third quarter ended August 29, 2008. Diluted earnings per common share were $1.81 compared with $6.13 for the third quarter of 2007 and $4.58 for the second quarter of 2008. Annualized return on average tangible common shareholders' equity (1) was 8.8% for the third quarter of 2008 and 16.3% for the first nine months of 2008. Annualized return on average common shareholders' equity was 7.7% for the third quarter of 2008 and 14.2% for the first nine months of 2008.

Net Revenues

Investment Banking
Net revenues in Investment Banking were $1.29 billion, 40% lower than the third quarter of 2007 and 23% lower than the second quarter of 2008. Net revenues in Financial Advisory were $619 million, 56% lower than a particularly strong third quarter of 2007, primarily reflecting a decrease in industry-wide completed mergers and acquisitions. Net revenues in the firm's Underwriting business were $675 million, 8% lower than the third quarter of 2007, due to lower net revenues in equity underwriting, primarily reflecting a decrease in industry-wide initial public offerings. Net revenues in debt underwriting were essentially unchanged from the third quarter of 2007. The firm's investment banking transaction backlog increased during the quarter.

Trading and Principal Investments
Net revenues in Trading and Principal Investments were $2.70 billion, 67% lower than the third quarter of 2007 and 52% lower than the second quarter of 2008. Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) were $1.60 billion, 67% lower than a very strong third quarter of 2007, primarily reflecting particularly weak results in credit products and mortgages, which were adversely affected by broad-based declines of asset values. Credit products included very weak results from investments and a loss of approximately $275 million (including hedges) related to non-investment-grade credit origination activities. Mortgages included net losses of approximately $500 million on residential mortgage loans and securities and approximately $325 million on commercial mortgage loans and securities. Commodities produced strong results, which were higher compared with the third quarter of 2007. Net revenues in currencies and interest rate products were also strong, although essentially unchanged from the third quarter of 2007. During the quarter, FICC operated in an environment generally characterized by wider mortgage and corporate credit spreads, volatile markets and lower levels of client activity.

Net revenues in Equities were $1.56 billion, 50% lower than a particularly strong third quarter of 2007. During the quarter, Equities operated in a challenging environment characterized by a significant decline in global equity prices, deleveraging by clients and generally lower client activity levels towards the end of the quarter. The decline in net revenues reflected very weak results in principal strategies. In addition, net revenues in derivatives were significantly lower than a particularly strong third quarter of 2007. Commissions were strong, but lower, compared with the third quarter of 2007. Principal Investments recorded a net loss of $453 million for the third quarter of 2008. These results included losses from corporate and real estate principal investments, partially offset by a $106 million gain related to the firm's investment in the ordinary shares of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (ICBC).

Asset Management and Securities Services Net revenues in Asset Management and Securities Services were $2.05 billion, 4% higher than the third quarter of 2007 and 5% lower than the second quarter of 2008.

Asset Management net revenues were $1.13 billion, 6% lower than the third quarter of 2007, reflecting lower management and other fees, as well as lower incentive fees. The decrease in management and other fees primarily reflected the impact of one fewer week in the firm's fiscal third quarter of 2008 compared with the third quarter of 2007. During the quarter, assets under management decreased $32 billion to $863 billion, due to $25 billion of market depreciation, primarily in equity assets, and $7 billion of net outflows. Net outflows reflected outflows in equity and money market assets, partially offset by inflows in alternative investment and fixed income assets.

Securities Services net revenues were $916 million, 20% higher than the third quarter of 2007. The firm's prime brokerage business continued to generate strong results and customer balances were higher compared with the third quarter of 2007."

With the recent demise of Lehman (LEH) and the sale of Merrill Lynch (MER) to Bank of America (BAC) the fact Goldman is still very profitable is a feat in and of itself. With that being said, a 70% fall in profits is lousy in anyone's book no matter how you look at it.

The bright side is Goldman and Morgan Stanley (MS) are now the last men standing. One has to wonder though if the next run is on them? Goldman is too strong and can resist, Morgan, I just do not know. The scary thing is that I don't think anyone knows.

One this that could assure either avoids a run would be the acquisition of a depository institution. That would provide a capital base and lessen the total dependence on capital markets.

Which one? Washington Mutual (WM)? JP Morgan (JPM) has been rumored to be sniffing around them but as of yet has not made a move. SunTrust (STI)? Possible..

Here is a thought, is there a reason the two could not merge? Clearly the end entity would be that much stronger and necessary than the two independent...

Just a thought..


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long GS, none
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Tuesday's Links

Rangell, Flip, Oprah, Gumshoe,

- Charlie, it isn't about the money, it is all about your hypocrisy..

- This is going to be huge....it is my only complaint about my Blackberry

- So, Is Oprah playing politics or not? Seems to be she can no longer claim she isn't....so much for "you go girl!!!"

- Make million curing cancer.....with a stock


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Monday, September 15, 2008

Fed Rate Cut Tomorrow? Why?

What would a rate cut solve?


MarketWatch Reports:


The Federal Reserve will cut its target overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point to 1.50% at its meeting tomorrow, said Merrill Lynch economists David Rosenberg and Drew Matus in a note Monday. "In the current environment, the Fed may feel the need to get in front of the situation with a more aggressive move" instead of the standard quarter-point reduction, they said. Merrill (MER 19.30), one of the 19 primary security dealers that trade directly with the New York Fed, was bought by another dealer, Bank of America (BAC) overnight. "Recent events suggest a large deleveraging of the banking system is picking up steam and suggests the risks to the economy are entirely concentrated in the growth outlook," Rosenberg and Matus said. Merrill analysts had previously expected the Fed to reduce rates in the first quarter as inflation subsided. "Inflation concerns will take a backseat, or move to the trunk," they said. The Fed may also remind markets that the discount window and other liquidity facilities are available.


The problem out there is not the cost of credit (rates) but the availability of it. Bernanke could lower rates to 1% and it would not matter in any way other than causing inflation to spike and the dollar to fall.

In my recent interview with AutoNation (AN) CEO Mike Jackson he comment that "Fed rate cuts are not working like they have in the past". Jackson said that is isn't a question of the rate at which banks will lend at, it is a matter of them holding on to their liquidity (cash) and just not lending it at all. Typically lower rates spur demand for lending from consumers and businesses. There is plenty of demand for loans out there, banks are just not parting with the money they have.

Lower rates are insignificant here...

The only thing a rate cut would do is give a mental boost to the markets for a day. Then reason sets in and people realize the only thing another rate cut will accomplish is inflate prices, depress the dollar, and allow American's to once again watch the price or oil rise going into winter.

There are times that the best things to do is nothing...this is one of those times.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long AN, none
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Ross Says 1,000 Banks Go Under (video)

Wilbur Ross on Sunday talking Lehman (LEH), Merrill (MER) and Bank of America (BAC).




Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Bank of America / Merrill Lynch.....Why Now?

Not sure I get this one. When Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis bought Countrywide (CFC) earlier this year, he essentially doubled down on a bet he made last year when he invested $2 billion in the mortgage lender at prices double his eventual takeover price. Now, Merrill Lynch (MER).

After last night's failure of Lehman Brother's (LEH), I don't think anyone can argue Merrill Lynch (MER) was not the next domino to fall. That being said, to buy them now, for a premium to it current valuation, smacks of deja vue of Lewis's initial Countrywide investment.

While Merril is a premium name and we all know Bank of America wanted to expand into Merrill's domain, one can't help but wonder about the price being paid. Going into the weekend the future of Lehman was in doubt and patience on the part of Lewis could have saved shareholders billions.

After watching both Bear Sterns and Lehman, options for Merrill were minimal at best for this upcoming week. Even had Lehman got its lifeline, its effect on Merrill would have been minimal as it still would have been the next institution in the cross-hairs.

All in all the deal is a good one for Bank of America from an operational standpoint, it was just done a way too high a price...



Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Fed Increases Available Liquidity

Last night, the Fed announced the following move in the wake of the Lehman (LEH) bankruptcy and Bank of America's (BAC) takeover of Merrill Lynch (MER).

Here is the Fed move:

The Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced several initiatives to provide additional support to financial markets, including enhancements to its existing liquidity facilities.

"In close collaboration with the Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission, we have been in ongoing discussions with market participants, including through the weekend, to identify potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses," said Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. "The steps we are announcing today, along with significant commitments from the private sector, are intended to mitigate the potential risks and disruptions to markets."

"We have been and remain in close contact with other U.S. and international regulators, supervisory authorities, and central banks to monitor and share information on conditions in financial markets and firms around the world," Chairman Bernanke said.

The collateral eligible to be pledged at the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) has been broadened to closely match the types of collateral that can be pledged in the tri-party repo systems of the two major clearing banks. Previously, PDCF collateral had been limited to investment-grade debt securities.

The collateral for the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) also has been expanded; eligible collateral for Schedule 2 auctions will now include all investment-grade debt securities. Previously, only Treasury securities, agency securities, and AAA-rated mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities could be pledged.

These changes represent a significant broadening in the collateral accepted under both programs and should enhance the effectiveness of these facilities in supporting the liquidity of primary dealers and financial markets more generally.

Also, Schedule 2 TSLF auctions will be conducted each week; previously, Schedule 2 auctions had been conducted every two weeks. In addition, the amounts offered under Schedule 2 auctions will be increased to a total of $150 billion, from a total of $125 billion. Amounts offered in Schedule 1 auctions will remain at a total of $50 billion. Thus, the total amount offered in the TSLF program will rise to $200 billion from $175 billion.

The Board also adopted an interim final rule that provides a temporary exception to the limitations in section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act. It allows all insured depository institutions to provide liquidity to their affiliates for assets typically funded in the tri-party repo market. This exception expires on January 30, 2009, unless extended by the Board, and is subject to various conditions to promote safety and soundness.





Disclosure ("none" means no position):none
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Marty Whitman Talk Value Investing (video)

This hour long video from 2007 is just a classic. Third Avenue Value's (TAVFX) leader talks about Graham and Dodd investing.




Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long TAVFX
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Monday's Links

Dividend, Gphone, Driving, Gumshoe

- Want a 5% and growing yield?

- I can't wait to see this, not that I'll buy one, I just am curious as to features

- This is sooo true

- I actually had not seen this one yet


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Saturday, September 13, 2008

Charlie Rose & Roger Lowenstein on Buffett , 1995 (video)

Lowenstein wrote perhaps the best book on Berkshire's (BRK.A) Buffett in my opinion. In this 1994 interview he discusses it.

Here is Lowenstein's book:



Here is the interview. The Buffett section is 32 min. into it.



Disclosure ("none" means no position):None
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Friday, September 12, 2008

Ackman Says, "I Got Buyers" and Here They Come

So, just a day after Bill Ackman claims CVS' (CVS) offer for Longs Drugs (LDG) is too low and that he "has other interested parties", they begin to emerge.

The WSJ Reports:


Walgreens said it would pay $75 a share in cash to buy the California-based Longs, besting CVS's price of $71.50 per share, also in cash, which was equivalent to about $2.7 billion. Either deal would also include the assumption of about $200 million in debt.

Walgreens CEO Jeffrey Rein said in a letter to Longs' board of directors that the company would prefer to negotiate with Longs directly but was also prepared to take the offer directly to the company's shareholders.

Rein also noted in the letter, which Walgreens disclosed in a press release late Friday, that Walgreens had expressed an interest in acquiring Longs earlier for $70 a share but never received due diligence materials from the company.



What annoys me the most is that I was actually going to do the "Ackman Longs Trade" discuss Thursday on Monday, it would have been a nice 4.5% in a day....would have been..

Like I have said here countless times, timing is indeed everything and I missed out on this one.


Disclosure ("none" means no position):
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Einhorn Buys 11% of Helix

In a just released SEC filing, David Einhorn, through his Greenlight entities has purchased 11% of Helix Energy Solutions (HLX).

In the filing, Einhorn discloses purchases bringing his ownership to 10.2 million shares through 4 entities.

Here is the recent activity




Who Is Helix?:


Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (Helix) is an international offshore energy company providing reservoir development solutions and other contracting services to the energy market, as well as to other oil and gas properties. Helix operates in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Asia Pacific and Middle East regions. The Contracting Services segment utilizes the vessels and offshore equipment that when applied with the methodologies reduce finding and development (F&D) costs. The Oil and Gas segment is engaged in prospect generation, exploration, development and production activities. On December 11,