tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1815670410767921032011-11-27T18:52:48.964-05:00Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comBlogger13991100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-90426321378236397982009-09-08T07:31:00.005-04:002009-09-08T07:31:00.131-04:00THE NEW ADDRESS FOR VALUEPLAYS IS NOW <a href="http://www.valueplays.net/">VALUEPLAYS.NET</a> (CLICK LINK TO BE DIRECTED)<br /><br /><br /><script src="http://tweetmeme.com/i/scripts/button.js" type="text/javascript"></script><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-9042632137823639798?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-76927907903724798712008-01-28T05:21:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.119-04:00Harley Davidson (HOG) reported results Friday and they were as expected, anemic. The guidance for 2008, was, too be honest a bit more rosy than I would have expected.<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />Here is the nitty gritty:<br /><br />Fourth-quarter net income fell 26% to $186.1 million, or 78 cents a share, from $252.4 million, or 97 cents a share. Analysts expected earnings of 82 cents a share. Revenue fell 7.7% to $1.39 billion from $1.5 billion a year ago. <br /><br />For 2008, the company said it expects "moderate" revenue growth and earnings per share growth of 4% to 7%, compared to 2007. The company said for the first quarter of 2008, it expects to ship between 68,000 and 72,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles, compared to 67,761 units in the first quarter of 2007, and for the year overall it plans to ship fewer motorcycles than it expects dealers to sell.<br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Financial Services Segment<br /></span>Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) reported fourth quarter operating income of $38.6 million, a decrease of $9.1 million or 19.1 percent compared to the year ago quarter. The decrease is primarily due to a $6.4 million write-down of retained securitization interests. HDFS full year operating income was $212.2 million, a 0.7 percent increase over last year's $210.7 million.<br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Stock Repurchase<br /></span>The Company repurchased 3.2 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $153.3 million during the fourth quarter of 2007. For the full year 2007, they repurchased 20.4 million shares at a total cost of $1.15 billion. On December 31, 2007, the Company had 238.5 million shares of common stock outstanding.<br /><br />As of December 31, 2007, there are 23.1 million shares remaining on board-approved share repurchase authorizations. An additional board-approved share repurchase authorization is in place to offset option exercises. This is roughly 10% of outstanding shares.<br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Cash Flow<br /></span>Cash and marketable securities totaled $405.3 million as of December 31, 2007. Cash flow from operations was $798.1 million, and capital expenditures were $242.1 million during the full year of 2007. In 2008, capital expenditures are expected to be between $240 and $260 million.<br /><br />With the US market clearly going to be in the doldrums for at least the first half of 2008, HOG must be seeing very positive trends in international markets. <br /><br />The stock was down after the news in a flat market. Trading at near 5 year lows and yielding over 3%, there is not much more downside to shares from here.<br /><br />Time to buy for those who have been waiting. Now, the market has been trading in some wild swings lately and looks on Friday morning to be approaching its first winning week this year so expect a wild ride (inference intended). That being said, we have been waiting since shares approached $70 to buy Harley and the time is now.<br /><br />We bought on Friday at $38.05 a share<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long HOG<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7692790790372479871?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-56197531128656225292008-01-28T05:13:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.120-04:00Shares Circuit City (CC) surged over 20% last week on news that Hollywood Entertainment Corp founder Mark Wattles acquired a 6.5% stake.<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />According to a filing with the SEC, Wattles acquired the stake in Circuit City for "investment purposes and may buy additional shares, encourage the company to enter a merger, or nominate candidates for the board."<br /><br />Wattles, who owns 32 stores of the Ultimate Electronics Stores chain and his affiliated companies acquired 11 million shares of Circuit City after they met with management, the filing said. This comes on the heals of the Classic Fund Management Aktiengesellschaft, a Liechtenstein-based asset management company, disclosing it holds a 5.7 percent passive stake in Circuit City. <br /><br />Wattles filed for a “blank check IPO” in December and wanted to raise up to $200 million "to focus on potential acquisition targets in the consumer products and retail industry."<br /><br />Is Circuit City a good takeover target? Yes, but only if current management is set free to "pursue other opportunities". I have <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/circuit-citys-largest-shareholder-gives.html">repeatedly written</a> about management's missteps and until it is clear they are gone, any speculation on the chain's recovery because of who owns shares is a total gamble. I have said before CC has a great brand, good stores in great locations but they are just abysmally run.<br /><br />Different people owning shares will not change that. <br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5619753112865622529?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-71922186433333345802008-01-28T00:15:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.120-04:00<font class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />Sunpower (SPWR)= Janco Partners Accumulate » Buy <br />THQ Inc (THQI )=Janco Partners Accumulate » Buy <br />Elizabeth Arden (RDEN)= Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy <br />AVX Corp (AVX)= AmTech Research Sell » Buy <br />Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)= CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform <br />XL Capital (XL)= Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy <br />Centurytel (CTL)= Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy <br />Astoria Fincl (AF)= Stifel Nicolaus Sell » Hold <br />Ctrip.com (CTRP )= Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy <br />NYSE Euronext (NYX)= Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy <br />Applied Bio (ABI)= Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy <br />Sunpower (SPWR)= Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy <br />Compuware (CPWR)= Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy <br />Assured Guaranty (AGO)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />ATP Oil &amp; Gas (ATPG)= RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform <br />Co. Paran. de Energ (ELP)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Cheesecake Factory (CAKE )= Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform <br />Methanex (MEOH)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Microchip (MCHP)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />ChoicePoint (CPS)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Reduce » Neutral <br />Emulex (ELX)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />OmniVision (OVTI)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform <br />Textron (TXT)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Arcelor Mittal (MT)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Arcelor Mittal (MT)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy <br />Air Tran Holdings (AAI)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />CKX Inc. (CKXE)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />ScanSource (SCSC)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />Tenneco (TEN)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Outperform <br />Federal Signal (FSS)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy <br />Bronco Drilling (BRNC)= Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />SunOpta (STKL)= Northland Securities Outperform » Market Perform <br />Integrated Device (IDTI)= Longbow Buy » Neutral <br />Integrated Device (IDTI)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />Bronco Drilling (BRNC)= BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform <br />Electro Scientific (ESIO)= Brean Murray Buy » Hold <br />Bancshares Of Florida (BOFL )= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral <br />City National (CYN)= Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform <br />Synovus (SNV)= Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight <br />Fairchild Semi (FCS)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />Celera Genomics (CRA)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral <br />AT&amp;T (T)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />Bronco Drilling (BRNC)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy » Hold <br />Frontier Airlines (FRNT)= JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight <br />Cabot Micro (CCMP)= GARP Research Buy » Neutral <br />Sonic Foundry (SOFO)= Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7192218643333334580?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-32332720639775771782008-01-27T12:26:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.121-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Monday's Picks<br />Tim Seymour recommends buying Sasol (SSL) $43.11<br /><br />Guy Adami prefers United Technologies (UTX) $72.75<br /><br />Karen Finerman likes Golar (GLNG) $17.57<br /><br />Pete Najarian thinks investors should trade alongside Warren Buffet and buy Burlington Northern (BNI) $81.8<br /><br />Friday's Results<br />Tim Seymour likes refiners such as Tesoro (TSO) $39.81 Close $39.29 LOSS<br /><br />Guy Adami prefers Cisco Systems (CSCO) $25.11 Close $24.22 LOSS<br /><br />Karen Finerman says get long Goldman Sachs (GS) $199.20 Close $191.37 LOSS<br /><br />Pete Najarian thinks ConocoPhillips (COP) $74.47 Close $74.13 LOSS<br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 6-4<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 4-7<br />Pete Najarian= 3-5<br />Karen Finerman= 5-4<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3233272063977577178?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-36725962315794921232008-01-26T07:00:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.121-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Goodrich Petroleum Corp (GDP)= $2,244,000<br />Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (LGF) = $ 1,685,000<br />Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD)= $ 1,500,000<br />Arbinet Thexchange Inc (ARBX) = $1,400,000<br />Biofield Corp (BZET)= $1,299,000<br />Monsanto Co New (MON) = $ 1,029,000<br />Ruby Tuesday Inc (RT)= $ 1,026,000<br /><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3672596231579492123?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-59004653362843845742008-01-26T06:42:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:39:20.228-04:00Here are the top stories this week at <a href="www.valueinvestingnews.com">Value Investing News</a><br /><span class="fullpost"><br /><br /><div id="node-3063" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://collegeanalysts.com/?p=204">1. The Only Three Financials Worth Owning, Part 1</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via collegeanalysts.com)</div><div class="content"><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Only well-capitalized, conservative, and consistent (sorry, even Goldman doesn't count) are worth owning in that sector. Here are my three favorites, and the first analysis.</p></div></div><div id="node-3065" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.lmcm.com/pdf/ROICPatternsandShareholderReturns.pdf">2. Michael Mauboussin : ROIC Patterns and Shareholder Returns</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.lmcm.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3065" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3065" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Sorting Fundamentals and Expectations</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3058" class="node storylink clear-block"><br /><h2 class="title"><a href="http://collegeanalysts.com/?p=202">3. I'm No Longer Alone in Retail</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via collegeanalysts.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3058" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_3058" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Four retail stocks you wished you owned today - but it's not too late...</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3049" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=253583">4. Why it's fair weather for Fairfax investors</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.financialpost.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3049" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3049" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Picking companies to bet on to weather the growing financial crisis in the United States, noted value investor Whitney Tilson appeared on CNBC last week and named just three: McDonald's, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway, and Canadian financial services conglomerate Fairfax Financial Holdings.</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-3068" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/ackmans-letter-to-moodys-must-read.html">5. Ackman's Letter to Moody's: A Must Read</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3068" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_3068" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Ackman's entire letter to Moody's</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3066" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d4ba9b84-c98a-11dc-b5dc-000077b07658.html">6. Buffett buys 3% of Swiss Re</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.ft.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3066" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3066" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Swiss Re shares surged in on Wednesday morning after the world’s largest reinsurance group said Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway group had taken a 3 per cent stake as part of a broader business deal.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3014" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/leucadia-again-buys-options-on.html">7. Leucadia Buys More Options on AmeriCredit</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3014" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_3014" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>An SEC filing late Friday</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3082" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93859/000092189508000219/dfan14a06824004_01232008.htm">8. Sandar Biglari Issues Letter to Shareholders of the Steak n Shake Company</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.sec.gov)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3082" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3082" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Biglari issues a letter just before the Steak n Shake earnings conference call on January 24th accusing the leaders of Steak n Shake of destroying shareholder value. This fight is just starting to heat up.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3064" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/HowBuffettIsPlayingThisMarket.aspx">9. How Buffett is playing this market</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via articles.moneycentral.msn.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3064" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3064" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>But actions speak louder than words. And Buffett's recent actions provide four key takeaways for investors:</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-3059" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/leucadia-ups-stake-in-americredit-to.html">10. Leucadia Ups AmeriCredit Stake to Almost 20%</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3059" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_3059" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Time to dig into AmeriCredit</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-3033" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200801181427DOWJONESDJONLINE000860_FORTUNE5.htm">11. Washington Mutual Is Troubled, But Tempting Too</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via money.cnn.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3033" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3033" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>"We don't have a better crystal ball as to when mortgage problems will be behind them," Bill Nygren, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Fund, which has extensive holdings in the bank told MarketWatch Thursday. "But when it does, we think that investors will realize the franchise value far exceeds the current stock value."</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3024" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120072035599702709.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">12. Flagging Sears Plans Shakeup In Latest Bid at Turnaround - WSJ.com</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via online.wsj.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3024" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3024" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Excerpt:" In a fresh effort to halt a long decline, Sears Holdings Corp. Chairman Edward S. Lampert plans to reorganize the 121-year-old retailer into several businesses with broad authority to shape their own future."</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3022" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/81510704-c623-11dc-8378-0000779fd2ac.html">13. Whitney Tilson: Strong stomach? Concentrate that portfolio</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.ft.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3022" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3022" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>As in most subjects relating to money management, there’s a wide diversity of opinion on portfolio concentration versus diversification. Few, of course, would argue for the extremes: owning only one or two stocks invites potential disaster (ask those whose entire retirement portfolio consisted of Lucent or Enron stock), while owning hundreds makes it very difficult to outperform the market.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3017" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/lamperts-move-yes-its-about-brands.html">14. Lampert's Move: Yes Its About Brands</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3017" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_3017" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Lampert's move will finally unlock the brand value..</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3015" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/berkshire-still-adding-to-burlington.html">15. Berkshire Files Friday on more BNI Purchases</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3015" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_3015" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-3088" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.noisefreeinvesting.com/blog/?p=171">16. What happens to shareholders’ money at Steak n’ Shake?</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.noisefreeinvesting.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3088" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3088" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>One picture sums up the current state of affairs. (even investors have a sense of humor)</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3083" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/file/41143/why-banks-cant-afford-to-save-the-bond-insurers.html">17. Why banks can’t afford to save the bond insurers</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.moneyweek.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3083" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3083" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Rumours of a bail-out for bond insurers gave the Dow Jones a late boost yesterday. But before investors get too excited, they should consider one thing: where's the money going to come from?</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3078" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/23/bcndollar123.xml">18. Dollar's golden era is ending, warns Soros</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.telegraph.co.uk)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3078" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3078" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>George Soros said that a recession in both the United States and Britain "will be very difficult to avoid". He was speaking on the fringes of the World Economic Forum summit in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world's top politicians and businessmen are meeting.</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-3051" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120071159401502353.html">19. Stocks to Buy in '08</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via online.barrons.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3051" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3051" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Barron's Roundtable members Meryl Witmer, Fred Hickey, Art Samberg and Mario Gabelli share their stock picks for 2008.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3041" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com/2008/01/wall-st-non-sense.html">20. Wall St. Non-Sense</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3041" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3041" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Posted about two and a half weeks ago, but the thesis remains true. The three companies, K-Swiss, Sears Holding and Overstock.com are all illogiclly being pushed down well below liquidation value for Sears, below 1/3 of sales for Overstock and almost to 5x fcf for K-Swiss.</p></div></div><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5900465336284384574?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-61298318987086444182008-01-25T20:12:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.123-04:00In an SEC filing Friday after close, Leucadia (LUK) disclosed the purchase of 975,000 <span class="fullpost"> shares of AmeriCredit (ACF) at $11.59 a share.<br /> <br />This brings Leucadia's total holdings to 17,884,300 shares as of 1/23.<br /><br />The 17,884,300 shares reflects 5,593,100 shares of common stock of the Issuer directly owned by Baldwin Enterprises, Inc. ("Baldwin") and indirectly owned by Phlcorp, Inc. ("Phlcorp") and Leucadia National Corporation ("Leucadia"), the Reporting Persons' obligation to purchase 11,316,200 shares of common stock of the Issuer on February 25, 2008 pursuant to the terms of a share forward transaction.<br /><br />The agreement between Baldwin and Jefferies & Company, Inc., dated January 11, 2008, and the Reporting Persons' obligation to purchase 975,000 shares of common stock of the Issuer on the earlier of (i) February 15, 2008, and (ii) the termination of all waiting periods applicable to Baldwin under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, as amended, pursuant to the terms of a share forward transaction agreement between Baldwin Enterprises, Inc. and Ramius Capital Group, L.L.C. and its affiliates, entered into on January 23, 2008. <br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-6129831898708644418?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-525790631536020782008-01-25T15:31:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.123-04:00Not much today...<span class="fullpost"><br />(YDNT)= Young Innovations Inc<br /> (USAK )= USA Truck Inc<br /> (STKL )= Sunopta Inc<br /> (PEBK )= Peoples Bancorp N C Inc<br />(NSE)= Mexco Energy Corp<br /> (BHO )= B+H Ocean Carriers Ltd.<br /> (BCRX )= BioCryst Pharmaceutic ...<br /> (ALO )= ALPHARMA Inc<br /> (ACET )= Aceto Corporation<br /><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-52579063153602078?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-52507132007457177442008-01-25T12:27:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.124-04:00In an SEC filing today, Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett disclosed donations<span class="fullpost"> of 3,090 shares of Class B Common Stock to charity.<br /><br />The donation dates are:<br />8/28/07= 120 shares<br />9/5/2007= 1,080 shares<br />9/14/2007= 805 shares<br />10/10/2007= 10 shares<br />10/31/2007= 1,000 shares <br />12/19/2007= 75 shares<br /><br />The charity(s)that received the shares were not disclosed.<br /> <br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):None<br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5250713200745717744?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-43479435282982807612008-01-25T09:52:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.124-04:00Here is an article that gives serious doubt to Apple's (AAPL) recent numbers.<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br /><a href="http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/01/25/the-case-of-the-14-million-missing-iphones/?section=money_topstories">The full article can be found here:<br /></a><br />"The talk among Apple (AAPL) watchers today is Toni Sacconaghi’s dogged pursuit of the 4 million iPhones Steve Jobs claimed to have sold as of Jan. 15, the date of his Macworld keynote speech.<br /><br />AT&T (T), the iPhone’s exclusive U.S. carrier, reported yesterday that it had activated “just at or just slightly under 2 million” iPhones. That’s quite a discrepancy.<br /><br />Sacconaghi, Sanford Bernstein’s Apple specialist, did the math and concluded in a report to clients that there are roughly 1.4 million iPhones “missing in action,” either unlocked or sitting in inventory. Assuming that 20% of those iPhones were purchased to be unlocked (a generous assumption given that a jailbreak for the latest iPhone firmware was only released yesterday), he believes that there are at least 650,000 gathering dust somewhere — in warehouses, perhaps, or in closets, as unwanted Christmas presents waiting to be returned.<br /><br />Here’s how he gets that number:<br /><br /> * 3.75 million iPhones sold as of Dec. 29 (per Apple’s Q1 report)<br /> * minus 2 million iPhones activated through AT&T as of Dec. 31 (per AT&T)<br /> * minus 350,000 iPhones sold in Europe via O2, T-Mobile and Orange<br /> * minus 750,000 iPhones purchased to be unlocked<br /> * equals 650,000 unaccounted for.<br /><br />Sacconaghi concludes:<br /><br /> This is negative in two ways: (1) it indicates end-user demand for iPhone is lower than many investors may think based on Apple’s sales figure; and (2) it points to slower iPhone sales in the current quarter, since much of this inventory is likely to be drawn down.<br /><br />Of course, compared to other Apple analysts, Sacconaghi is something of a bear. One day before the Q1 earnings report and the subsequent run on Apple shares, he went out on a limb and predicted that the company would sell only 7 million iPhones in 2008. That’s considerably less than the 10 million target Steve Jobs set — a goal COO Tim Cook said on Tuesday he remained “very confident” they would hit.<br /><br />Most Apple watchers shared Cook’s confidence, given the 4 million number Jobs had trotted out at Macworld. Today they’re singing a different tune.<br /><br />“Apple might have a demand problem,” writes Tom Krazit at CNET.<br /><br />Russell Shaw at ZDNet says the iPhone is at a “crossing the chasm” moment, stuck between early adopters and the mainsteam, and predicts that to survive its price will have to come down to $299 by the end of May at the latest.<br /><br />Ewan McLeod at the U.K.’s SMS Text News waxes positively elegiac in a post entitled “The Apple iPhone will only ever be a bit player”:<br /><br /> The geeks have all bought one and many have got theirs unlocked. The Nike wearing Soho crowd have splurged the cash. The wannabes and the I-must-have-that crowd have weighed in, swapped networks and got their devices. But that’s it. There’s a ton of people all sitting staring at the iPhone and — SADLY — (this is the bit that’s winding me up), turning their backs and walking away. (link)<br /><br />This may be premature. A lot could change in the next 50 weeks. New apps. A 16 GB iPhone. A 3G model. New price points. New markets in Canada, Thailand, and maybe even China.<br /><br />But one thing is certain: having promised and repromised to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008, there will be hell to pay in 2009 if Apple falls even a little bit short."<br /><br />Has anyone heard this stuff before? I really like the "lower the price to $299" comment. Didn't I say that in May of 2007?<br /> <br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Sold Apple $280 July calls when stock was at $165<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4347943528298280761?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-85468294839006456652008-01-25T09:08:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.125-04:00Stockmaster's, WSJ, Sprint, "Under The Radar"<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />- A lot on bloggers "claim" results but <a href="http://thestockmasters.com/master-picks-great-day.html">these guys document</a> their stuff.<br /><br />- Good. A <a href="http://feeds.wsjonline.com/~r/wsj/xml/rss/3_7011/~3/222416463/SB120119406286813757.html">free site would</a> have become clogged with ads and junk..<br /><br />- This is really good news, <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/typepad/alleyinsider/silicon_alley_insider/~3/222418395/sprint-nextel-shuffles-management-sues-telcos-s.html">the house cleaning</a> has begun..<br /><br />- For those who do not get it (it is free), Seeking Alpha <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/61440-under-the-radar-news-thursday?source=i_email">has a great email</a> they end out daily that contains the news you will not hear 10,000 times before lunch. I highly recommend it.<br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8546829483900645665?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-53414642180975788922008-01-25T06:32:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.125-04:00Whitney Tilson was kind enough to send this to me regarding Borders (BGP)<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Borders Group (BGP), Kian Ghazi, Hawkshaw, 9/07<br /><br />Here’s a pitch on Borders…we’ve taken advantage of a significant pull back to ramp the position to one of the larger investments in our fund. We’ve been involved with Borders (BGP) for over a year now. Currently trading at ~$15.50, we believe BGP is worth at least $30/share with scenarios that could make it worth $35-45/share over time. Importantly, our view is in no way predicated on a merger or sale of BGP.<br /><br /><br />BGP has three divisions: Super Stores, Walden Books and an International Division (primarily UK and Australia). In March 2007, BGP management proposed a turnaround plan for the business that called for the divestiture of the International business, the closing of 250 of 564 Walden locations, and a renewed focus on every operational aspect of the Super Store business. BGP is in the midst of a multi-year capital spending program that has depressed historically strong free cash flows. However, we believe that the capital spending in the areas of inventory systems, store remodels to reduce sq. ft. to music (a major drag on comps the last few years), and development of an online channel represent the proper strategy to allow the Super Stores to generate a 9% EBITDA margin by 2009. This 9% margin is below past peak margins of 9.5-10% achieved as recently as 2004-2005. To generate this margin, one has to believe that the Super Stores can achieve a 2% comp and generate a 28.5% gross margin (vs 29.5% GMs in 2004-2005) as they reduce exposure to music and refine the loyalty program, which was launched in 2006.<br /><br /><br />BGP also has a significant working capital opportunity in the form of increasing inventory turns. BGP currently turns inventories at 1.6-1.7x vs. competitor Barnes and Noble at >2.5x. This gap represents a ~$500mm opportunity (vs the current EV of $1.3bn using average debt and cash). Importantly generating at least $200mm of this improvement is firmly with management’s control as they redefine current store level inventory management decisions and invest in new IT systems to go along with the recently added new distribution center.<br /><br />Assuming that BGP can:<br /><br /> 1. Get to 9% EBITDA margins in 2009 in its super store segment,<br /> 2. Generate $200mm of working capital from improved inventory turns.<br /> 3. Sell its International Business for $100mm [~0.2x estimated 2006 revs of assets for sale], and<br /> 4. Reduce current capex spending to ~$100mm starting in 2008,<br /><br /><br />Then:<br />Applying a 7.5x EBIT multiple to 2009 EBITDA-Maintenance Capex of $250mm (we use $75mm of maintenance capex to be conservative vs. management guidance of ~$50mm) suggests a value of $30 share. We use EBITDA less maintenance capex because depreciation is overstated.<br /><br /><br />The ~$40/share scenario comes from the possibility that BGP may be able to close the sales productivity gap between it and BKS. The $30 scenario assumes no improvement in relative productivity. However we believe that if BGP management can address the current problems in the business, it will then have a credible operating platform to attempt to address this productivity gap, which we believe is largely driven by BKS’ seasoned loyalty program, superior Starbucks productivity, and higher margin merchandise mix. In addition, a more rationale pricing posture between Borders and Barnes and Noble could dramatically improve the ROIs of both companies.<br />************************************************************************************<br /><br />Now, with Ackman pushing his ownership to <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/ackman-in-3-more-swap-transactions-in.html">18% and his economic stake to 26%</a>, I think it is time to get on board here. These number make sense and are doable. With <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/borders-new-board-member-details.html">Pershing on the Board now</a>, one can only assume management will begin to take step to accomplish these metrics. <br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5341464218097578892?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-51345692759267366742008-01-25T06:09:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.126-04:00Priceless...ypu have got to see this..<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br /><br /><object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/SGkrNJ19DSU&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SGkrNJ19DSU&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object><br /><br /><br />Adam Warner found this originally and has more <a href="http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/2008/01/must-see-tv.html">commentary on his <br />site</a>.<br /><br />Here is another Cramer Classic:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/AoFWRXzNc7U&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/AoFWRXzNc7U&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object><br /> <br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):Agree with Santelli<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5134569275926736674?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-44257106160211013822008-01-25T05:37:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.127-04:00When you compare Netflix's (NFLX) recent <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/11/blockbuster-manages-to-miss-lousy.html">results to those of</a> Blockbuster (BBI), you can only shake your head.<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />Netflix said Wednesday that its fourth-quarter profit rose 6% as subscribers increased. Net income was $15.8 million, or 24 cents a share for the quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with a profit of $14.9 million, or 21 cents a share a year earlier. Revenue rose to $302.4 million from $277.2 million, an increase of 9%. Subscriber acquisition costs in the quarter were $34.60 per gross add, down from $37.91 in the third quarter.<br /><br />Analysts were expecting a profit of 14 cents a share on revenue of $301.7 million. Subscribers rose to 7.48 million from 6.32 million a year earlier.<br /><br />On <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/61343-netflix-inc-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed&page=1">the conference call</a> CEO Reed Hasting said, "For 2008, we expect to have more net adds than 2007, with a positive factor being less aggressive competition from Blockbuster Online ...."<br /><br />He continued "Blockbuster Online is still active and still has several million subscribers. While they appear to have shifted to valuing profit over growth, they can change their mind again at any time. We are widening the gap between us however, and any further attack is unlikely to be as painful as their 2005 or 2007 thrusts."<br /><br /><br />Even he does not expect Blockbuster to get its act together online for the next year<br /><br />Since December 2005 the subscriber base has grown by 79% to 7.5 million subscribers., revenue has grown by 77% to $1.2 billion and they have nearly doubled free cash flow to $46 million.<br /><br />It would appear based on ALL evidence to date Netflix took Blockbusters best shot (twice) and has come out the clear victor. Now it is on the the online game. Hastings did say that they are seeing good business from their younger subscribers in downloads and should in 2008, have the downloads ready for the Mac, high-definition DVD players, to game consoles and to dedicated Internet set-top boxes broadening the audience further.<br /><br />A note: Not once in the entire call did they once mention "getting into the video store game". The reason? It is over...<br /><br />As a matter of fact, Hastings actually said "Unless video stores are reinvented, it may be that in five years, there are tens of thousands of kiosks, millions of online DVD renters and very few video stores." <br /><br />I have been <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/08/blockbuster-now-can-we-close-stores.html">saying this since last summer</a>, get rid of the stores Blockbuster!!<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4425710616021101382?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-46801281617882965472008-01-25T00:18:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.128-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />St. Jude Medical (STJ)= Stanford Research Hold » Buy <br />Endo Pharm (END)=P Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy <br />Informatica (INFA)= Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy <br />Netflix (NFLX)= Utendahl Under-weight » Equal-weight <br />Quintana Maritime (QMAR)= Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy <br />F5 Networks (FFIV)= Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy <br />ITT Educational (ESI)= Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform<br />Varian Medical (VAR)= Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Entercom ETM (SMH)= Capital Sell » Neutral <br />QLT Inc (QLTI)= Caris &amp; Company Average » Above Average <br />NVE Corp ( NVEC)= Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform <br />Intl Paper (IP )= Soleil Hold » Buy<br />NDS Group (NNDS)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick <br />Range Resources (RRC)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />EOG Resources (EOG)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Thornburg Mortg (TMA)= Citigroup Sell » Hold <br />Microchip (MCHP)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Intersil (ISIL)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />General Dynamics (GD)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Manhattan Assoc (MANH)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />Cephalon (CEPH)= Soleil Hold » Buy <br />StatoilHydro (STO)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Western Digital (WDC)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy <br />McAfee (MFE0= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Human Genome (HGSI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Sonus Networks (SONS)= Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy <br />BioMed Realty (BMR)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Packaging Corp (PKG)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy <br />Repsol SA (REP)= Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold <br />AmSurg (AMSG)= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight <br />Healthsouth (HLS)= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight <br />Anglo American (AAUK)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />McAfee (MFE)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Lifepoint Hospitals (LPNT)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight <br />Tenet Healthcare (THC)= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight <br />Novacea (NOVC)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy <br />Stryker (SYK)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform <br />Human Genome (HGSI)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform <br />Garmin (GRMN)= Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform <br />Ametek (AME)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />NVE Corp (NVEC)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy <br />Gilead Sciences (GILD)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />F5 Networks (FFIV)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />Yamana Gold (AUY)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Google (GOOG)= Stanford Research Buy » Hold <br />THQ Inc (THQI)= Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold <br />Legg Mason (LM)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform <br />Hospitality Props (HPT)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Strategic Hotels &amp; Resorts (BEE)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Apollo Investment (AINV)= Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform <br />DuPont (DD)= Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform <br />Royal Philips Electronics (PHG)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform <br />Vertex Pharm (VRTX)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />eBay (EBAY)= Citigroup Buy » Hold<br />Omnicare (OCR)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight <br />THQ Inc (THQI)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Sell<br />Motorola (MOT) Charter Equity Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4680128161788296547?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-78180350175746684702008-01-24T19:38:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.129-04:00In a filing after the close on Thursday,<span class="fullpost"> Leucadia (LUK) purchased 10,000 more options on AmeriCredit (ACF).<br /><br />Leucadia now holds 32,500 contracts for 3.5 million shares. The options are exercisable at $9 a share and expire 3/14/2008<br /><br />AmeriCredit closed at $12.76 on Thursday.<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7818035017574668470?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-54447796251063642642008-01-24T19:27:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.130-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Friday's Picks<br />Tim Seymour likes refiners such as Tesoro (TSO) $39.81<br /><br />Guy Adami prefers Cisco Systems (CSCO) $25.11<br /><br />Karen Finerman says get long Goldman Sachs (GS) $199.20<br /><br />Pete Najarian thinks ConocoPhillips (COP) $74.47<br /><br />Thursday's Results<br />Jeff Macke recommends buying the Financial Select SPDR (XLF) $27.9 Close $27.91 GAIN<br /><br />Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $139.07 Close $135.60 LOSS<br /><br />Karen Finerman suggests shorting Simon Properties (SPG) $90.19 Close $ 87.80 GAIN<br /><br />Pete Najarian likes YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $18.72 Close $18.00 LOSS<br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 6-3<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 4-6<br />Pete Najarian= 3-4<br />Karen Finerman= 5-3<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5444779625106364264?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-19290874085887338172008-01-24T18:42:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.130-04:00In a recent filing moments ago, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) added shares of Burlington Northern (BNI)<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />Berkshire bought 10,300 shares through its National Indemnity subsidiary on 1/22 at $75.51, bringing the total number of shares held to 63,785,418<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-1929087408588733817?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-90628747334509424322008-01-24T16:41:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.131-04:00I have yet to get a good answer on this...<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />Can anyone tell me how Kuwait investing $10 billion in either Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Merrill Lynch (MER) or Morgan Stanley (MS) and owning in most cases less than 5% of the institution would enable them to enact any more "negative undue influence" than say China holding trillions of dollars of US treasuries gives them the ability to stonewall our goverment on trade, human rights, piracy etc....?<br /><br /> <br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-9062874733450942432?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-61524829056685172252008-01-24T16:32:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.132-04:00this is really fun, this means these loans are working for these folks..<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />From KIVA:<br />"The business you have loaned to, run by Yusif Musayev, has made a<br />repayment of $86.00. The total amount repaid is now $86.00. This<br />repayment will be divided amongst all the lenders who helped to fund<br />this business, depending upon the percentage each lender contributed."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.kiva.org/app.php?page=businesses&action=about&id=26028">View Yusif's business here</a>:<br /><br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-6152482905668517225?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-18214309363445186662008-01-24T16:24:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.132-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />(FIGI )Fortress Intl Group Inc<br /> (DUF ) Duff &amp; Phelps Corp New<br /> (DLX ) Deluxe Corporation<br /> (BLD ) Baldwin Technology Co ...<br /> (ATE ) Advantest Corp<br /> (ALO ) ALPHARMA Inc<br /> (RJF ) Raymond James Financi ...<br /> (PLNR) Planar Systems Inc<br /> (PEBK ) Peoples Bancorp N C Inc<br />(MXC ) Mexco Energy Corp<br />(MTSC ) MTS Systems Corporation<br />(MRCY ) Mercury Computer Sys<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-1821430936344518666?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-83724432500347845062008-01-24T12:28:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.133-04:00Dow Chemical (DOW) CEO Andrew Liveris told CNBC's Becky Quick this afternoon in an interview "From a trend point of view, we haven't seen anything that reflects a recessionary environment in the United States,".<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />This is an important proclamation as Liveris's Dow is invloved in virtually every industry in the US and his company is acutely sensitive to conditions here.<br /><br />He continued, ""We've seen a slowdown that suggests there's a shallow drop, or soft landing ... in the back half of this year, we think there is a chance this slowdown will start reversing as the housing crisis abates."<br /><br />Regarding US demand decreases for Dow's products he said "It's no more acute now than it was a few months ago. Therefore, the first half (of 2008) I think will be a continuation of this, which suggests that the overall year will be a slower year than last year -- there's no question about that,"<br /><br />Offsetting the US slowdown will be "A global economy growing at 2.8 to 3 percent is probably the adjustment we are making to annual plans versus a global economy of higher than 3 percent, maybe 3.2 or 3.3," said Liveris.<br /><br />As he left he reminded Quick to ask him about Dow current strategy after they release results next week. Hmmmm.. <br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Long DOW<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8372443250034784506?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-76046056368508029332008-01-24T09:59:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.133-04:00Financials, Blackrock, Retail, iPhone<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />- Eric <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/StockMarketPrognosticator/~3/221078513/case-for-financials.html">makes a good case</a> for financials..<br /><br />- Sometimes <a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/18/conservative-approach-pays-off-for-blackrock/">boring is just</a> better..<br /><br />- James Cullen <a href="http://collegeanalysts.com/?p=202">makes the case for retail</a> stocks (some of them)<br /><br />- May be just a rumor, <a href="http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/222246523/">or may be the reason</a> for the disappointing projections<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7604605636850802933?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-19360825403101935652008-01-24T06:51:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.134-04:00After reading Bank of America's (BAC) and now Wachovia's (WB) <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/61113-wachovia-corp-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo">earnings call transcripts </a> my optimism for this year for financials is stronger than ever.. <span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Investors have focused on mortgage write-downs. On the call, CEO Thompson address that:<br />"Golden West acquisition, we looked at the Golden West experience of the early 1990s. At that time, California had 10% unemployment and 20% house price depreciation, and charge-offs peaked in 1994 at 20 basis points. Based on our portfolio today, that 20-basis point peak would translate to about $250 million in charge-offs. Our expectations for the this year are that charge-offs will exceed that historical peak. But even if charge-offs reach three or four times that peak, our Pick-a-Pay portfolio will generate very meaningful bottom-line profits in 2008. And I do not believe that investors grasp that fact today."<br /><br />Wachovia's second lien home equity portfolio of $32 billion has a delinquency rate that is one quarter as high as the industry and currently has a higher Tier 1 capital ratio at the end of the year than it did at September 30th. The balance sheet should be further enhanced as A.G. Edwards FDIC sweep deposits will also be coming onto their balance sheet over the first three quarters of the year. <br /><br />They have $4.178 billion of the super senior ABS CDO exposures, hedged with financial guarantees, of which $2.2 billion is hedged with mono-lines and $2 billion with AA-rated financial companies with market caps in excess of $80 billion each.<br /><br />The Dividend (currently an 8% yield):<br />Again Thompson "Will Wachovia cut its dividend? And the answer to that question is we have no plans to cut the dividend, because we don't need to cut the dividend. We are confident in our ability to meet our 2008 business plan and that plan, as we have said before, will generate cash earnings that will cover our dividend payments, continue to build necessary credit reserves, improve our capital ratios and support growth in our business lines."<br /><br />Housing:<span style="font-style:italic;"><br />Don Truslow - Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer</span><br />"I hate to forecast just giving what's happening in the housing markets, but I mean I would not be surprised to see the same sort of pace that we have had in the last couple of quarters, for the next couple of quarters."<br /><br />Earnings:<br />Wachovia is expecting to earn "in excess" of a dollar per share each quarter for about $4.12 a share total in 2008. The economic expectations they use for that prediction? "Overall, we are thinking it's going to be environment that has GDP growth of somewhere around 2%. We would expect it to be an environment with lower short-term rates and a steepening yield curve and that should be an environment, where can expect good net interest income growth driven by deposit loan growth, wider spreads and the dilution we have taken with the balance sheet."<br /><br />Conservative..<br /><br />Wachovia will hit the $4 a share in earnings and when the banks trade around the 12 to 14 times earnings they traditionally do, that equates to a price of $48 to $52 share or 40% to 50% higher than now. Oh yea.. buying today also gives you and 8% yield on your invested funds. Real nice.. <br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Long Wachovia, None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-1936082540310193565?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-4902033392076836322008-01-24T05:38:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.135-04:00Wal-Mart (WMT), may expand into Russia in the next two years in order to capitalize on a swelling economy and a stunning lack of competitors said UBS AG (UBS) analysts last week.<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />The bank said, "Open markets and independent grocers generate most Russian retail sales, according to UBS. The country's $145 billion food- retailing industry accounts for almost half of total spending and will expand on average by 17 percent annually through 2010 as rising incomes boost demand for better food".<br /><br />The country is in its 10th consecutive year of expansion grew 7.6% in 2007, the Economy Ministry said in December, beating a prior forecast of a 6.7% pace. Auto sales in the country may rise 13% this year and surpass deliveries in the U.K.<br /><br />Because the five largest chains control just 7.4% of sales, compared with 35% in the U.S. and as much as 80 percent in Europe, UBS said the country is "ripe for consolidation".<br /><br />Wal-Mart will most likely use the JV format it has used in India or enter through acquisitions like it did in Japan. Like China, Russia present a host of difficulties in its bureaucracy, but also offer a stunning opportunity. When one looks at the near 20% annual sales growth of Wal-Mart's international operations, the thought that the rapidly growing Russian market could become part of that has to make shareholders excited.<br /><br />I have long pushed the need for increased spending <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/10/wal-mart-international-push-continues.html">on international operation</a> at the expense of domestic ones as the opportunities Wal-Mart has abroad dwarf those at home. <br /> <br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):Long Wal-Mart<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-490203339207683632?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-8425898123128654672008-01-24T00:10:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.135-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />Amcol (ACO)= Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy <br />Vistaprint (VPRT)= AmTech Research Sell » Neutral <br />MeadWestvaco (MWV)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight <br />Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)= Stanford Research Hold » Buy <br />Cache (CACH)= Sterne Agee Hold » Buy <br />Ariba (ARBA)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />BJ Services (BJS)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />DIRECTV (DTV)= Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy <br />Apple (AAPL)= Needham &amp; Co Buy » Strong Buy <br />DuPont (DD)= BB&amp;T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy <br />Entergy (ETR)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />AK Steel (AKS)= Soleil Sell » Hold <br />LDK Solar (LDK)= Lazard Capital Sell » Hold <br />Lincoln National (LNC)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />FirstEnergy (FE)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />American Electric (AEP)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Westar Energy (WR)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />PNM Resources (PNM)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />FPL Group (FPL)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Exelon (EXC)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />DTE Energy (DTE)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Edison (EIX)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Alliant Tech (ATK)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Plum Creek (PCL)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight <br />TreeHouse Foods (THS)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />Veolia Environnement (VE)= Brean Murray Hold » Buy <br />Heartland Express (HTLD)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />SAFECO (SAF)= UBS Sell » Neutral<br />Teekay Shipping (TK)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />Woodward Governor (WGOV)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform <br />Novo-Nordisk A/S (NV)O=Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Choice Hotels (CHH)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />DISH Network (DISH)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />PetroChina (PTR)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Union Pacific (UNP)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Canadian Natl Rail (CNI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Burl Nrth Santa Fe (BNI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Canadian Solar (CSIQ)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy <br />Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy <br />Suntech Power (STP)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy <br />L-3 Comms (LLL)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Northrop Grumman (NOC)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform $80 » $84<br />Kindred Healthcare (KND)= Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform <br />Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />A/S Dam TORM (TRMD)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy $43<br />Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd (VLCCF)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />General Maritime (GMR)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />ExlService (EXLS)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />WNS (WNS)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />DuPont (DD)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy <br />Anglo American (AAUK)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Wipro (WIT)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />National Fuel Gas (NFG)= Citigroup Sell » Hold <br />Repsol SA (REP)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />Peoples Bank (NC) (PEBK)= BB&amp;T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold <br />Smith &amp; Wesson (SWHC)= Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Buy <br />Qimonda (QI)= AmTech Research Buy » Neutral <br />Temple-Inland (TIN)= Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight <br />Northstar Neuroscience (NSTR)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform <br />McMoRan Expl (MMR)= Stanford Research Buy » Hold<br />Apple (AAPL)= Caris &amp; Company Buy » Above Average<br />Mentor Graphics (MENT)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight <br />Corel (CREL)= JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight <br />Cadence Design (CDNS)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral <br />Principal Fincl (PFG)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform <br />AmericanWest Banc (AWBC)= Sandler O'Neill Hold » Sell <br />PETsMART (PETM)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Texas Instruments (TXN)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />LoJack (LOJN)= Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold <br />Chemtura (CEM)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold <br />Triad Guaranty (TGIC)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral <br />Glimcher Realty (GRT)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform <br />First Cash (FCFS)= JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />First Cash (FCFS)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy » Hold <br />Plantronics (PLT)= Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral <br />Millipore (MIL)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Peabody Energy (BTU)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral <br />Foundation Coal (FCL)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral <br />Arch Coal (ACI)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral<br /><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-842589812312865467?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-91431702995048819402008-01-23T20:06:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.136-04:00<span class="fullpost"> <br />Thursday's Picks<br />Jeff Macke recommends buying the Financial Select SPDR (XLF) $27.9 <br /><br />Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $139.07 <br /><br />Karen Finerman suggests shorting Simon Properties (SPG) $90.19 <br /><br />Pete Najarian likes YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $18.72 <br /> <br />Wednesday's Results<br />Jeff Macke recommends getting long the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) $26.05 with a stop out at 25. Close $27.90 GAIN<br /><br />Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) $31.91 Close $35.82 GAIN<br /> <br />Karen Finerman thinks investors should take a look at Macy's (M) $24.30 Close $25.41 GAIN<br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 5-3<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 4-5<br />Pete Najarian= 3-3<br />Karen Finerman= 4-3<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br /> <br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-9143170299504881940?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-73141537871051378922008-01-23T15:23:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.137-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />(ZBRA) Zebra Technologies Co ... =$27.80<br /> (YHOO) Yahoo! Inc =$18.98<br /> (VNR ) Vanguard Natural Reso ...=$ 13.69<br /> (VLO ) Valero Energy Corp New =$49.86<br /> (TLF ) Tandy Leather Factory Inc =$2.52<br /> (TKR ) The Timken Company =$26.34<br /> (TINY ) Harris &amp; Harris Group Inc=$ 6.55<br /> (SUG ) Southern Union Company =$25.84<br /> (STO ) Statoilhydro Asa =$24.04<br /> (STKL ) Sunopta Inc =$8.64<br /> (ROK) Rockwell Internationa ...=$ 53.07<br /> (ROG) Rogers Corporation =$31.29<br /> (RIV ) Riviera Holdings Corp ...=$ 17.96<br /> (RHT ) Red Hat Inc =$17.09<br /> (RFMD) Rf Microdevices Inc=$ 2.89<br /> (REP ) Repsol, S.A. =$28.30<br />(MPR ) Met-Pro Corporation=$ 9.80<br />(MOT ) Motorola, Inc =$9.56<br /> (GSK ) GlaxoSmithKline plc=$ 47.33<br /> (GRB) Gerber Scientific, Inc =$8.51<br /> (GIFI) Gulf Island Fabricati ... =$25.40<br /> (DELL) Dell Inc =$18.95<br /> (DBD ) Diebold, Incorporated=$ 23.55<br /> (CIEN ) Ciena Corp =$21.83<br /> (CENX ) Century Aluminum Company=$ 39.69<br /> (CEM ) Chemtura Corp =$5.79<br /> (AMGN) Amgen Inc =$44.45<br /> (ALY ) Allis Chalmers Energy Inc=$ 11.21<br /> (ALXA) Alexza Pharmaceutical ... =$6.71<br /> (ALU ) Alcatel-Lucent =$5.61<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7314153787105137892?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-88779009177986108322008-01-23T14:52:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.138-04:00Bloggers & MSM, Recession?, Bears, 33 things<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />- Interesting, speaking from experience, <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/burstblog/vccA/~3/221133092/">I think the number</a> is actually higher.<br /><br />- Chad Brand <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/investorsblognetwork/~3/221093042/what-is-recession-anyway.html">makes a great point</a> about the current hysteria.<br /><br />- Let them pile on, based on history, the more folks <a href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/01/22/why_are_financi.html">that pile into a thesis</a>, the sooner the reverse happens<br /><br />- This <a href="http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-02/su_silverman">is pretty</a> good<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8877900917798610832?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-46545743369659149742008-01-23T08:55:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.139-04:00The recent slide in Apple (AAPL) shares can be attributed to one thing: Steve Job's playing games with expectations.<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />For too long Steve jobs has played games with the guidance he offers investors and analysts. Now it is coming back to haunt shareholders. Here is how it typically goes. Jobs give guidance that he knows is too low and then Apple blows it away and the stock surges. Analysts have relied on those expectations to make their estimates and have traditionally been too low.<br /><br />Not being idiots, they caught on to the game and have ratcheted their expectations higher than they expect Jobs to "guide them".<br /><br />A funny thing happened this week. Apple guided analysts lower than what they thought the "low ball" expectation would be. Now, Apple was trading at almost 50 times earnings on Jan. 1 and have lost over 20% in the 23 days since then and look to get slashed about another 10% at the open today. The problem is that people just do not believe what Jobs is telling them. <br /><br />What if he is finally telling the truth and the guidance is right on? What if iPod sales which are basically flat, despite new products stay that way or decline? iPhone sales in both France and the UK have been disappointing, is there a larger issue? Is this the reason for the lower estimate? What if the analysts have over estimated the expected "beat" Apple will produce next quarter and earnings growth is indeed going to slow? Does Apple expect the consumer slowdown to take a bigger chunk out of sales?<br /><br />In the current environment, indecision equates to fear and shareholders are suffering. <br /><br />If you are going to give guidance, conservative is one thing but playing games like Jobs has with it is just wrong because eventually it comes back to bite you. No one can doubt his genius or showmanship, it was hubris that was his downfall once and is hurting him again now.<br /><br />Does this mean Apple will not beat the lower expectations? No. It does mean that because of Jobs's actions shareholders are in for a real unnecessarily rocky ride.. <br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Sold July $280 2008 calls on Apple when shares were at $166<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4654574336965914974?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-18711086670199954252008-01-23T07:36:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.140-04:00Below is a copy of the letter Bill Ackman sent to Moody's rating agency regarding MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK). Marty Whitman can call him what he wants, but the guy knows his stuff. <span class="fullpost"><br /><br />January 18, 2008<br /><br />Mr. Raymond McDaniel Mr. Stephen Joynt<br />Executive Chairman and CEO CEO and President Moody’s Corp. Fitch Ratings<br />99 Church St. One State Street Plaza<br />New York, NY 10007 New York, NY 10004<br /><br />Mr. Deven Sharma<br />President<br />Standard &amp; Poor’s<br />55 Water Street<br />New York, NY 10041<br /><br />Re: Bond Insurer Ratings<br /><br />Ladies and Gentlemen:<br /><br />As a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization, Moody’s, S&amp;P, and Fitch have been granted a level of authority that capital market participants and Federal and State regulators have historically relied upon in evaluating the safety and soundness of corporations, regulated financial institutions, and structured finance securities. To state the obvious, because of your critical role in the capital markets, it is essential that the ratings you publish are the result of comprehensive and accurate analysis.<br /><br />As you well know, we have privately, in meetings and correspondence with you, and publicly in various presentations that we have made, called into question your ratings of the bond insurance industry, in particular, the ratings for MBIA Insurance Corp. and Ambac Assurance Corp. and their holding companies.<br /><br />Each of you, according to your recent public statements, is in various stages of updating your ratings of the bond insurers. Unfortunately, however, your previous ratings assessments have erred materially in their omission of certain critical analysis and the inclusion of outright errors in your work. As you conduct your most recent revisions of your analysis on the bond insurers, it is vital that you conduct a thorough assessment of all aspects of the bond insurers’ business lines, their reinsurers, and investment portfolios so that the rating decisions that you ultimately publish can be relied upon by capital markets participants.<br /><br />Below we highlight a number of factors that you have failed to consider in your prior assessments of the bond insurers’ capital adequacy:<br /><br />1) Impact of Losses Should be Measured on a Pre-tax Basis<br /><br />We believe that each of you overstates the bond insurers capital cushion due to tax benefits you include in calculating the impact of RMBS and CDO losses. For instance, in S&amp;P’s recent press release update published yesterday, MBIA’s losses on RMBS and CDOs are expressed as “after-tax” losses. In order, therefore, to determine the actual cash losses implied by S&amp;P’s after-tax estimate, one must gross up the reported $3.18 billion of after-tax losses. Assuming a tax rate of 38%, it appears that S&amp;P is estimating MBIA’s actual cash losses at $5.13 billion, nearly $2 billion more than the losses adjusted for tax benefits.<br /><br />Insurance claims must be paid in cash. A bond insurer is only able to obtain tax benefits if the insurer is a going concern and is able to generate sufficient taxable income in the current or future years to offset the losses from paid insurance claims. Your analysis makes the aggressive assumption that the bond insurers will remain going concerns and will therefore be able to continue to write new premiums and generate income in the future.<br /><br />Based on recent industry developments – including Berkshire Hathaway’s entrance into the business – it appears unlikely that MBIA, Ambac and many of the other bond insurers will be able to continue as going concerns. In a runoff scenario, we do not believe that the bond insurers will generate sufficient taxable income to offset the net operating losses generated by paid losses. While U.S. corporations can receive tax refunds by carrying back tax losses up to two calendar years, the amounts that could be refunded from carrying back losses are de minimis relative to claims payable. Even in the event the bond insurers generate taxable income in future years, it may be many years before these tax benefits can be realized, if ever, particularly in the event of corporate ownership changes caused by capital raising or stockholder turnover.<br /><br />Net operating loss carryforwards are not cash and are not available to pay claims and should therefore not be deducted from losses in calculating bond insurer capital adequacy. By using after-tax loss estimates rather than pre-tax losses – the amount that will need to be paid in cash – you are understating the actual losses payable by more than 60%.<br /><br />Your updated rating assessments should be adjusted to exclude tax benefits in your calculation of capital adequacy<br /><br />2) Covenant Violations and Loss of Access to Liquidity Facilities<br /><br />As a result of recent losses, both MBIA and Ambac have triggered covenant violations on their liquidity facilities. As a result, Ambac has lost access to $400 million of funding and MBIA to $500 million of capital. The impact of the loss of these facilities is material to the liquidity profile of the holding companies and their insurance subsidiaries and must be considered in your credit assessment.<br /><br />3) Loss Estimates Must Incorporate Reinsured Exposures<br /><br />Your ratings of the bond insurers are based on the bond insurers’ net credit exposures. That is, you reduce their credit exposure by those exposures that have been reinsured. This is best understood by example.<br /><br />As of September 30, 2007, MBIA has re-insured approximately $80 billion of par value<br />of its exposures. More than $42 billion of this reinsurance was purchased from Channel Re, a Bermuda- based reinsurer whose only customer is MBIA. The two most senior officers of Channel Re are former executives of MBIA. MBIA owns 17% of the company and has two representatives on Channel Re’s board of directors.<br /><br />On recent conference calls, Moody’s and S&amp;P have stated that they have not yet updated their ratings of the monoline reinsurers including Channel Re. Earlier this week, on January 16th, Partner Re and Renaissance Re, the majority equity owners of Channel Re, wrote off the entire value of their investments in Channel Re due to losses it has recently incurred that substantially exceed Channel Re’s capital, an impairment that Channel Re’s two majority owners have concluded is “other than temporary.”<br /><br />Despite the fact that Channel Re has negative book equity and $42 billion of MBIA’s credit exposure – $21.5 billion of which is CDOs of ABS or CLO/CBOs – Moody’s and S&amp;P continue to rate the company Triple A with a stable outlook. Fitch does not rate Channel Re and apparently relies on S&amp;P’s and Moody’s stale Triple A ratings in its<br />analysis of MBIA’s capital adequacy.<br /><br />Captive reinsurers whose ratings are not regularly updated offer the potential for abuse.<br /><br />We believe that MBIA reinsured on a quota share basis 25% of its 2007 CDO transactions with Channel Re. As a result of Moody’s and S&amp;P not updating its ratings of Channel Re, these exposures do not appear on MBIA’s list of exposures and have not been included in your calculation of MBIA’s capital adequacy.<br /><br />MBIA’s second largest reinsurer is Ram Re which has reinsured $11 billion of par as of September 30, 2007. While the rating agencies have not updated their credit ratings of Ram Re, the market appears to have already done so. The publicly traded stock of Ram Holdings Ltd., the parent company of Ram Re, has declined 92% in the last year. The company currently trades as a penny stock with a market value of $32 million.<br /><br />We believe that Ram Re is substantially undercapitalized and therefore, like Channel Re, is unlikely to be able to meet its obligations to MBIA.<br /><br />We also note that MBIA reinsures Ambac, and Ambac reinsures MBIA. You must also consider the iterative impact of downgrades of one on the other with respect to both reinsurance and their respective guarantees of each other’s investment portfolio assets which we discuss further below.<br /><br />In your updated assessment, it is critical that you update your ratings of the bond insurers’ reinsurers and reconsolidate and calculate the losses on these exposures that have been reinsured with reinsurers that are inadequately capitalized.<br /><br />4) Investment Portfolios are Riskier Than They Appear<br /><br />As you are well aware, the investment portfolios of the bond insurers include a substantial amount, often a majority, of bonds that are guaranteed by either the bond insurer itself or by other bond insurers. The bond insurers include these guarantees in calculating the weighted average ratings of their investment portfolios. We note that a minimum average Double A rating is a key rating agency criterion for the insurers’ Triple A rating.<br /><br />A guaranty to oneself is of course worthless and therefore you should exclude the bond insurers’ guaranty of its own investment obligations and use the underlying ratings of these instruments in determining the portfolios’ credit quality.<br /><br />You should also carefully calculate the impact of a downgrade of the bonds held by one bond insurer that are guaranteed by other insurers in your calculation of capital adequacy. In light of the general distress in the industry, we believe that the rating agencies should evaluate the bond insurers’ investment portfolios as considered on an underlying rating basis.<br /><br />5) Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS)<br /><br />To date, you have limited your analysis to RMBS securities and other structured finance securities with exposure to RMBS (CDOs). This limited review of exposures ignores the fact that the same lending practices and flawed incentive schemes that fueled the subprime lending bubble have been very much at work in CMBS and corporate finance.<br /><br />On January 17, 2008, Fitch commented that it believed that CMBS delinquencies are “likely to double, and perhaps even triple, by the end of 2008.” As of September 30, 2007, MBIA had insured $43 billion net par of CMBS securities, the vast majority of which was underwritten in the past two years. Failing to consider the potential for losses in this portfolio in your calculation of capital adequacy is simply negligent.<br /><br />6) Claims-Paying Resources Definition Overstates Capital Available to Pay Claims<br /><br />The rating agencies have adopted the bond insurance industry’s definition of capital in the form of “Claims Paying Resources” or “CPR.” We believe there are significant flaws with the calculation of CPR used by the industry and the rating agencies.<br /><br />First, bond insurers include the present value of future premiums discounted at extremely low discount rates ~5% in their calculation of claims paying resources. Substantially all of these premiums are from structured finance guarantees. We believe that the bond insurers and the rating agencies do not adequately consider the facts that:<br /><br />(1) when structured finance obligations default, accelerate, or otherwise prepay ahead of schedule these premiums disappear,<br />(2) purchasers of secondary market guarantees are likely to terminate their periodic premium payments because of the deteriorating credit quality of the bond insurers,<br />(3) the reserves for losses on these exposures (for example 12% of premium for MBIA) have proven to be inadequate and therefore overstate the net premium income, and<br />(4) there is no provision for overhead, remediation, legal or other costs required for the bond insurers to run their business going forward.<br /><br />There is also no mechanism whereby the bond insurers can borrow against these potential future premiums to be used to pay claims in the present day.<br /><br />There is no other financial institution in the world which takes the present value of interest spread income on loans in its portfolio and adds it to its capital. For all of the above reasons, we believe that the present value of future premiums should not be included in CPR.<br /><br />CPR includes the bond insurers’ so-called depression lines of credit. As you well know, depression lines of credit can only be drawn to pay claims on municipal obligations and only after a substantial deductible. In that the losses are occurring primarily on structured finance obligations, these lines of credit should not be included in CPR<br /><br />The Capital Base included in CPR is also likely to be overstated because the investment assets of the bond insurers consist primarily of bond insurer guaranteed obligations that are valued inclusive of the guarantee, when they should be valued on an unwrapped basis. The high degree of balance sheet leverage for certain bond insurers means that small changes in the values of these portfolios have a large impact on the bond insurers’ capital base.<br /><br />You should adjust your estimate of CPR for each insurer to reflect the above factors in order to accurately establish the capital available to pay claims.<br /><br />7) MBIA’s $1 Billion Surplus Note Issuance<br /><br />Last Friday, MBIA priced an offering of surplus notes at par with a 14% yield. Within one week the notes traded down to the mid-70s and have a yield to call of more than 20%. Previous to their pricing, the notes were rated by Moody’s and S&amp;P at Double A.<br /><br />The MBIA surplus note issuance is perhaps the clearest example of the failure of the rating agencies to accurately assess the creditworthiness of a bond insurer. MBIA is still rated Triple A by all three raters. The notes received a Double A rating because of their subordination to the other obligations of MBIA Insurance Corporation. That said, how can a billion dollars of Double A rated obligations sell in a cash transaction between sophisticated parties at a 14% yield, and then trade to yield of 20% or more — a rate consistent with a Triple C or near-to-default obligation?<br /><br />Bank of America 5 ¾% bonds due 2017, obligations of a financial institution that is also rated Double A, closed today at 5.55% yield, a more than 15 percentage point lower rate than the MBIA surplus notes. This is prima facie evidence that your ratings of MBIA are overstated.<br /><br />8) Billions of MBIA’s CDO Exposure Require Payment on Default<br /><br />You have stated that bond insurers have no accelerating CDO guarantees and that all of their contracts are structured as “pay-as-you-go.” I quote S&amp;P from a paragraph entitled, “Time is On Their Side,” in their December 19, 2007 report: “Detailed Results of Subprime Stress Test of Financial Guarantors.”<br /><br />“As for swap exposure, except for ACA there are no collateral posting requirements and swaps are written in pay-as-you-go format.”<br /><br />On January 9, 2008, MBIA filed a copy of a powerpoint presentation which was used in the Surplus Notes offering road show. On page 8, MBIA states that $8.1 billion of its Multi-sector CDOs require payment with “Credit events as they occur.”<br /><br />The liquidity demands of accelerating CDO exposure create extreme liquidity risk and must be considered in the context of the bond insurer ratings. We encourage you to examine all of the bond insurers CDS/CDO exposure to determine the amount of exposure that is not pay-as-you-go, but rather accelerates, and consider the liquidity demands of such exposures in your rating assessments.<br /><br />9) Holding Company Liquidity Risk<br /><br />In light of recent events, we believe it is likely that most bond insurers will be prevented from upstreaming dividends to their holding companies as a result of regulatory intervention, as regulators work to preserve capital for policyholders.<br /><br />Most bond insurer holding companies have limited cash, have lost or will lose access to liquidity facilities, and have substantial cash needs for interest payments, operating expenses, and dividends (for so long as they continue to be paid). In addition, bond insurers with substantial investment management or swap operations have additional liquidity needs in the event of a downgrade.<br /><br />We believe that both MBIA and Ambac have substantial collateral posting obligations in the event of a holding company downgrade. For example, MBIA has $45 billion of derivative obligations at the holding company that relate to currency, interest-rate, and credit default swaps that the holding company has entered into. The combination of volatility in each of these markets and the increased collateral demands required in holding company downgrade scenarios will put a severe strain on holding company<br />liquidity.<br /><br />The bond insurers’ muni-GIC business is also a large potential liquidity strain as municipalities withdraw funds from these GIC programs, assets must be liquidated, and/or collateral must be posted. Various MTM programs also create liquidity risk as assets may have to be sold to meet redeeming bondholders. The liquidity risks of these programs and the underlying assets should be carefully examined.<br /><br />ACA’s immolation is but one example of what happens to a once-investment grade bond insurer which, if downgraded, is required to post collateral.<br /><br />In addition, as a result of shareholder, bondholder, and/or surplus noteholder litigation, we expect holding company legal expenses and eventual litigation claims to rise substantially. Because the holding companies typically provide indemnities for employees and directors, we would expect that directors would be loathe to allow liquidity to leave the holding company estate, depriving directors and employees of the resources to protect themselves from claims. In these circumstances, we would expect companies to seek bankruptcy as a means to protect the allocation of value among various stakeholders.<br /><br />10) MBIA - Warburg Pincus Transaction<br /><br />You have assumed in your analysis that the Warburg Pincus deal and follow-on rights offering are certainties even though neither transaction has closed. While Warburg has made affirmative statements about the transaction, both publicly as well as privately, to surplus note buyers and the media, we believe there continues to be transaction closure risk for both the initial stock purchase and future rights offering, with the rights offering having greater uncertainty.<br /><br />You have also assumed that 100% of the $1 billion Warburg deal will be downstreamed to the insurance subsidiaries and this, too, is not a certainty. You should receive assurances from MBIA and require it to contribute the full billion dollars to its insurance subsidiaries before you include the funds in calculating insurance company capital.<br /><br />With the collapse in MBIA’s stock price and today’s downgrade of Ambac, we believe it will be difficult for MBIA to execute the rights offering, particularly before the March 31st, 2008 drop dead date. With the stock at $8.55 per share and the market aware that the $500 million in rights offering proceeds is insufficient to adequately capitalize the company, it will be difficult to set a market-clearing price. Assuming for a moment the price is set at $5.00 per share, the company would have to issue 100 million shares and may sell control to Warburg at a discount in the event shareholders elect not to participate. We believe a shareholder vote and approved registration statement will likely be required in such a circumstance, delaying the ability to consummate the transaction beyond the March 31st Warburg backstop drop dead date.<br /><br />11) Future Business Prospects and Franchise Value Have Been Irreparably<br />Destroyed<br /><br />Following the dramatic decline in share prices, widening of credit protection spreads, dismal performance of the high yield surplus note issuance, and recognition of multibillion dollar losses in a supposed “no-loss” business, the ability of bond insurers to market their “AAA” seal of approval has been permanently undermined. As uncertainty has grown, municipalities have raised capital without insurance and found that they can borrow at attractive rates as compared to historical insured bond issuances.<br /><br />The entrance of Berkshire Hathaway is a devastating competitive reality that will capture the lion’s share of an already shrinking market for municipal bond insurance. While some commentators have suggested that this might create a pricing umbrella that will benefit the existing bond insurers, this is demonstrably false. Because Berkshire Hathaway already possesses a real Triple A rating, the bonds that are wrapped with its guarantee will trade with a tighter spread when compared to a bond insured by a traditional bond insurer, even one without legacy structured finance exposure.<br /><br />Consequently, Berkshire will be able to charge higher premiums than the other monolines by taking a higher percentage of the spread (perhaps as much as 80% or more) that is saved through the use of insurance, and still provide the issuer with an overall lower cost of borrowing that if they bought insurance from a traditional monoline. As such, we believe that Berkshire Hathaway will likely quickly reach an 80%-90% market share of municipal bond insurance.<br /><br />12) Going Concern Opinion<br /><br />In light of all of the above and other current developments, we believe it will be difficult for MBIA, Ambac, and certain other bond insurers to obtain going concern opinions from their auditors. You should consider the likelihood of the insurers’ obtaining clean opinions and the implications if they do not in your rating assessments.<br /><br />Lastly I encourage you to ask yourself the following question while looking at your image in the mirror:<br /><br />Does a company deserve your highest Triple A rating whose stock price has declined 90%, has cut its dividend, is scrambling to raise capital, completed a partial financing at 14% interest (now trading at a 20% yield one week later), has incurred losses massively in excess of its promised zero-loss expectations wiping out more than half of book value, with Berkshire Hathaway as a new competitor, having lost access to its only liquidity facility, and having concealed material information from the marketplace?<br /><br />Can this possibly make sense?<br /><br />Please call me if you have any questions about the above. As usual, I will make myself available at your convenience.<br /><br />Sincerely,<br /><br />William A. Ackman<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-1871108667019995425?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-20521856147595488012008-01-23T07:03:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.140-04:00Here are the details of Richard Mcguire's addition to the Board of Directors of Borders (BGP)<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />From the SEC filing:<br />"On January 17, 2008, the Issuer and Richard T. Mcguire, III, a partner of<br />Pershing Square, entered into the January 17, 2008 Letter Agreement, in<br />connection with the appointment of Mr. Mcguire to the Board. The <a href="http://www.secinfo.com/dsvrn.t7h.htm#Dates">January 17,<br />2008 Letter Agreement</a> provides that it is intended solely for the benefit of the<br />Issuer and contains a series of undertakings by Mr. Mcguire, Pershing Square,<br />and the investment funds that Pershing Square advises, including the Pershing<br />Square Funds, which will be effective while Mr. Mcguire is a director of the<br />Issuer.<br /><br />The January 17, 2008 Letter Agreement contains undertakings, including,<br />among other things, that relate to certain confidentiality and regulatory<br />issues. The January 17, 2008 Letter Agreement also provides that while Mr.<br />Mcguire serves on the Board, and for two weeks after notice of his resignation,<br />Pershing Square and any of the investment funds Pershing Square advises will not<br />cross the 20% beneficial ownership threshold with respect to the Common Stock,<br />unless two weeks' prior notice is given to the Issuer of Pershing Square's<br />intent to do so, and if Pershing Square and the investment funds Pershing Square<br />advises dispose of their interests in the Common Stock such that they cease to<br />own at least five percent of the Common Stock, Mr. Mcguire will offer his<br />resignation to the Board.<br /><br />This summary of the January 17, 2008 Letter Agreement<br />is qualified in its entirety by reference to the January 17, 2008 Letter<br />Agreement, a copy of which is attached hereto as <a href="http://www.secinfo.com/$/SEC/Filing.asp?D=svrn.t7h.d">Exhibit 99.1</a> and is<br />incorporated herein by reference."<br /><br />As of January 17, 2008, Pershing had direct ownewrship of 10,597,880 shares of Common Stock (approximately 18.0% of the outstanding shares) and total economic exposure on 15,403,343 shares (approximately 26.2% of the outstanding shares).<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2052185614759548801?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-55837744278901489962008-01-23T06:26:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.141-04:00There <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/61059-bank-of-america-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed&amp;page=1">were some things said</a> on the Bank of America (BAC) call that has to make anyone investing in financials feel real good.<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Bank of America, trading at just under 9 times 2008's estimated (by the company) earnings ($4 a share), yielding a very safe 6.8% and trading at 1.1 times book value, may be a screaming buy.<br /><br />Here are some of the notables:<br /><br />Dividend:<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Mike Mayo – Deutsche Bank</span><br />"And then lastly, this is not just unique to you, but you intend to raise capital yet the dividend level seems kind of precious to maintain, I just conceptually, why is the dividend so important to maintain when you’re raising so much more capital and your tangible equity ratios at 3.6%?"<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Ken Lewis</span><br />"Well just because, you know if you’ll think about over a broader term or have a longer term perspective, we’ll get back to the capital levels pretty quickly and return to a more normal state with where we think earnings will go, so it’s just, we think it’s so temporary that that’s a better way to go Mike."<br /><br />Raise More Capital vs Acquisitions:<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Meredith Whitney – Oppenheimer</span><br />"Okay, I’m sorry I lied, one last follow up. If you guys look at the option that you have on your CCB ownership and then look at the capital levels that you have now and the opportunities that come about because we are in a distressed market for financials, what’s your priority in terms of securing the capital levels to the 8% or taking advantage of an opportunity that may come about this year? That’s it and I’m done."<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Ken Lewis</span><br />"It’s a combination Meredith."<br /><br />On what type of economic growth is going into earnings expectations:<br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley</span><br />"Okay and just, a little bit bigger picture, what kind of economic environment do you have baked into your tier one ratio outlook?"<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Ken Lewis</span><br />"Very, very modest growth, virtually none in the first half and then picking up in the third and fourth quarters to possibly get to a 2% growth rate by year end. But very modest growth but not a recession."<br /><br /><br />While folks are running around screaming about the "death of financials" those very institutions are quietly expecting a modest year. Now when you have catastrophic expectations baked into share prices and get modest results, you can get dramatic share price appreciation. We have heard from Wells Fargo (WFC) and Wachovia (WB) and both are optimistic about 2008.<br /><br />Somebody is way wrong here...I think the doubters are<br /><br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None, Long Wachovia<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5583774427890148996?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-42683938916890676182008-01-23T00:09:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.141-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />Blackboard (BBBB)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy <br />Openwave (OPWV)= Brean Murray Hold » Buy<br />QLT Inc (QLTI)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />Ensign Group (ENSG)= Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy<br />CF Industries (CF)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />NYMEX (NMX)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />Netflix (NFLX)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />Lowe's (LOW)= Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Kohl's (KSS)= Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Barrick Gold (ABX)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />Occam Networks (OCNW)= Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />Northstar Neuroscience (NSTR)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy » Underperform <br />Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)= MKM Partners Buy » Neutral<br />Bryn Mawr Bank (BMTC)= FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral <br />American Equity Investment Life (AEL)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />Mobile TeleSystems (MBT)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral <br />Penson Worldwide (PNSN)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral <br />Oxford Industries (OXM)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral <br />American Express (AXP)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />Medco Health Solutions (MHS)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />NCI Building Sys (NCS)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Luxottica (LUX)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight <br />Kendle (KNDL)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy » Hold<br />Superior Offshore (DEEP)= Johnson Rice Overweight » Equal Weight <br />Lululemon Athletica (LULU)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4268393891689067618?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-34965308202372580382008-01-22T20:50:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.142-04:00Wachovia's (WB) fourth-quarter net income plummeted 98%, as the company's deteriorating lending portfolio forced it to dramatically increase its loan-loss provision. Anyone surprised?<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />The Numbers:<br />* Reported net income of $51 million, or three cents a share, versus $2.3 billion, or $1.20 a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, earnings from continuing operations were 8 cents a share, versus $1.19 a share a year earlier.<br />* Increased its loan-loss provision to $1.5 billion from $206 million.<br />* Revenue fell 17% to $7.2 billion amid $1.7 billion in mortgage-related losses.<br />* Capital-markets business, which includes brokerage and asset-management operations, rose 42% to $350 million.<br />* Net interest margin, the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits, dropped to 2.88% from 3.09%.<br /><br />Chairman and Chief Executive Ken Thompson said "The continued turmoil in the capital markets and the dramatic change in the credit environment diminished our fourth quarter results substantially. We took active and prudent steps in the second half of the year to deal with the market disruption and credit deterioration, and we believe this allows us to move forward from a position of strength despite the uncertain economic environment."<br /><br />Thompson seems much more confident that other banks executives. Bank of America (BAC) Ken Thompson said after todays results were released "We are cautiously optimistic about 2008, though we believe economic growth will be anemic at best in the first half."<br /><br />Wells Fargo President and CEO John Stumpf said "We expect the environment to remain challenging in 2008, particularly in the consumer sector, but we're as committed as ever to satisfying all our customers' financial needs and believe we have the right strategy and team in place to do just that."<br /><br />Citigroup (C) CEO Vikrim Pandit said, well, it did not matter what he said because until the bank has a stated direction, no one is listening.<br /><br />Merrill Lynch's John Thain said, "as I look ahead to 2008, the firm is intensely focused on continuing this momentum and delivering growth and increased profitability for our shareholders and employees." Thain really did not say anything, it just sounds like he did. They all are "focused", what do you expect for results, John.<br /><br />JP Morgan's (JPM) Jamie Dimon commented, "We remain extremely cautious as we enter 2008. If the economy weakens substantially from here - for which, as a company, we need to be prepared, it will negatively affect business volumes and drive credit costs higher." <br /><br />So, Thompson is either living in lala land or Wachovia has wrote down assets to ludicrous levels and recognizes that the downside is virtually non existent from here. I am in the "write down" camp. If one listened to Merrill's Thain last week he stated their CDO's are written down to "interest only valuations" which is pennies on the dollar.<br /><br />Now is the time for them to do it, clear the deck and move forward. The Fed gave them a big boost with the 75 point cut today and more is on the way. This ought to boost margins immediately and may stimulate new business in refinances and new mortgages, both good for banks.<br /><br />Thompson has put himself out there more than once for 2008. His track record at Wachovia has been a very good one and until that changes, I will figure he has a handle on his bank.<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Long Wachovia, Long Citi, None<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p></span><span class="fullpost"><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3496530820237258038?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-87067766982966504902008-01-22T20:33:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.143-04:00Leucadia (LUK) commit to purchase almost 20% of AmeriCredit (ACF) shares in an SEC filing Tuesday night.<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />From the filing:<br />"As of the close of business on the date of this Statement, the<br />Reporting Persons (Leucadia and its owned entities) may be deemed to beneficially own collectively an aggregate of 22,159,300 shares of Common Stock, representing approximately 19.4% of the shares of Common Stock presently outstanding. All percentages in this Item 5 are based on 114,162,314 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of October 31, 2007, as set forth in the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2007."<br /><br />What does Leucadia think AmeriCredit may be worth? Consider this nugget:<br /><br />"Baldwin (Leucadia subsidiary) and Jefferies (broker)have entered into a share forward transaction agreement, dated January 11, 2008, pursuant to which Baldwin will acquire an aggregate of 11,316,200 shares of Common Stock at a price of $12.90 per share on February 25, 2008. Baldwin paid $72,989,490 to Jefferies on January 11, 2008 as a prepayment and will pay an additional $72,989,490 to Jefferies on settlement <br />of the share forward transaction." <br /><br />On 1/11 AmerCredit opened at $10.88 and close at $11.99. Leucadia, one of the best value investing firms out there are willing to buy shares at a premium to the market to be able to acquire enough fast enough. It should be noted that the 11.3 million shares are over 2X the daily volume so it would have taken Leucadia significantly longer to accomplish this on the open market. One has to conclude Leucadia has a significantly higher valuation than the $10.28 share trade at today.<br /><br />Leucadia also used my favorite "acquisition" option strategy, the naked put:<br /><br />"On December 13, 2007 and December 17, 2007, RCG Sextant and RCG<br />Enterprise (Leucadia subsidiaries) sold exchange-traded put options underlying Common Stock, pursuant to which they are obligated to purchase, but have no right to acquire, an aggregate of 261,600 shares of Common Stock and 38,400 shares of Common Stock, respectively, at a price of $7.50 per share. The put options are exercisable by their holders at any time prior to their expiration on May 17, 2008. RCG Sextant<br />and RCG Enterprise received $1.15 for each share of Common Stock covered by the <br />put options."<br /><br />AmeriCredit deserves a much closer look... <br /> <br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8706776698296650490?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-89763285006194111312008-01-22T19:44:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.143-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Wednesday's Picks<br />Jeff Macke recommends getting long the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) $26.05 with a stop out at 25.<br /><br />Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) $31.91<br /><br />Karen Finerman thinks investors should take a look at Macy's (M) $24.30<br /><br />Tuesday Results<br /><br />No Picks<br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 4-3<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 3-5<br />Pete Najarian= 3-3<br />Karen Finerman= 3-3<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8976328500619411131?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-27140344348601795672008-01-22T15:22:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.144-04:00<font class="fullpost"><br />(WYN) Wyndham Worldwide Corp = $20.03<br />(WYE ) Wyeth =$42.29<br /> (WPZ ) Williams Partners LP= $96.80<br /> (TLGD) Tollgrade Communicati ..=$. 6.74<br /> (TLF ) Tandy Leather Factory Inc =$ 2.60<br /> (SYMC) Symantec Corp =$14.98<br /> (SWWC) Southwest Water Company =$11.00<br /> (SWHC ) Smith &amp; Wesson Hldg Corp =$4.18<br /> (SLE ) Sara Lee Corporation =$14.06<br /> (SJM ) Smucker J M Co =$44.52<br /> (RHT ) Red Hat Inc =$17.65<br /> (RFMD) Rf Microdevices Inc=$ 3.18<br /> (REP ) Repsol, S.A. =$29.93<br /> (PFE ) Pfizer Inc =$22.12<br />(NYT ) New York Times Company=$ 14.45<br />(NWS ) News Corp =$19.08<br /> (MNST) Monster Worldwide Inc =$26.56<br /> (LXK ) Lexmark International ... =$ 28.45<br /> (KONA) Kona Grill Inc =$10.22<br /> (KFT ) Kraft Foods Inc =$29.80<br /> (K ) Kellogg Company =$47.59<br />(HMC) Honda Motor Co., Ltd.=$ 28.78<br />(HMA ) Health Management Ass .=$. 5.07<br /> (GIS ) General Mills, Inc =$53.07<br /> (DOM) Dominion Resources Bl ..=$ 16.43<br /> (DNN ) Denison Mines Corp =$6.69<br /> (DNB ) Dun &amp; Bradstreet Corp ...=$ 80.93<br /> (DBD ) Diebold, Incorporated =$24.18<br /> (DB ) Deutsche Bank Ag =$111.91<br /> (DAVE) Famous Dave's of Amer ...=$ 9.93<br /> (CPB ) Campbell Soup Company =431.12<br /> (CAKE) The Cheesecake Factor ... =$18.21<br /> (CAG) ConAgra Inc =$21.54<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2714034434860179567?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-91607408472612559282008-01-22T11:51:00.001-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.144-04:00Here is what the Fed had to say as it cuts rates 75 basis points.<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />Banks like Wachovia (WB), Bank of America (BAC) are lowering their prime rates today as a results of the surprise Fed cut. Expect Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and others to follow if not later today, then this week.<br /><br />"The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.<br /><br />The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.<br /><br />The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.<br /><br />Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.<br /><br />Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was William Poole, who did not believe that current conditions justified policy action before the regularly scheduled meeting next week. Absent and not voting was Frederic S. Mishkin.<br /><br />In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Minneapolis."<br /><br />In <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/is-oil-helping-bernanke-co.html">early Jan I wrote<br /></a> "that "nothing cures high prices like high prices". The simple explanation of that is that as prices climb, demand decreases. As milk climbs to $5 a gallon, people buy less of it sand the price falls. As oil climbs to and then past $100 a barrel, people will decrease gas use and the use of products that are affected by the price of oil. That will slow the economy and that slowdown ought to crimp the inflation that seemed to rise in December"<br /><br />Oil has eased down to $90 a barrel and looks to be heading lower. This is the reason for the outlook that inflation has eased and the flexibility for a big cut. It is a double edged sword as poor growth necessitate the rate cuts that we all love.<br /><br />Recession? Just talk. We need 6 months of negative growth for one. To date we have not even had one. We are getting way ahead of ourselves with that talk... way ahead... <br /> <br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-9160740847261255928?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-6078454599926356072008-01-22T10:28:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.145-04:00Fear, iPhone, Farmers, Judgment<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />- Chad Brand <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/PeridotCapitalist/~3/219007867/with-negative-sentiment-soaring-we.html">has a great point</a> about all the "doomsdayers" out there.<br /><br />- First France's sales <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/typepad/alleyinsider/silicon_alley_insider/~3/220320537/apple-aapl-uk-iphone-sales-below-plan.html">are below expectations</a> and now the UK's are...<br /><br />- The Brazilian <a href="http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/hftn/rss/SIG=12hprgqai/*http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/news/international/brazil_soy.fortune/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote">farmer is becoming</a> the world's best...<br /><br />- People <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/InfectiousGreed/~3/220641534/selfcontrol_del.html">make the oddest</a> choices<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-607845459992635607?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-44408653246840022052008-01-22T10:13:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.146-04:00Ada Laura Zumaeta De Toguchi has repaid 17% of her loan..<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br /><br />From KIVA:<br />The business you have loaned to, run by Ada Laura Zumaeta De Toguchi, has made a repayment of $171.00. The total amount repaid is now $171.00. This repayment will be divided amongst all the lenders who helped to fund this business, depending upon the percentage each lender contributed.<br /><br /> <br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4440865324684002205?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-79180833110095537202008-01-22T07:24:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.146-04:00Hold on tight.....today has the makings of a crazy day..<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7918083311009553720?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-86925126435549280292008-01-22T05:32:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.147-04:00With shares down 61% the last 6 months and a market cap of just $24 billion now, just how long will the nations 3rd largest wireless carrier, Sprint (S) remain independent?<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Who would want them? Two main candidates.<br />Google (GOOG):<br />Reports are Google is going to bid $4 billion for wireless spectrum in an upcoming auction. At this point and price, why not take Sprint's spectrum and get 54 million subscribers to boot? With the gPhone launching soon, wouldn't a cheap Sprint be the perfect platform? Sprint's main problem is subscriber losses, if current subscribers thought they might get first crack at a new phone, that exodus would if not halt, be severely curtailed.<br /><br />Google was first rumored to be interested in Sprint when late last year when shares were more than twice their current level and the company sported a near $50 billion market cap. If they are interested, time is wasting. At these levels, a bunch of folks may begin sniffing around.<br /><br />Comcast (CMCSA):<br />With both Verizon (VZ) and AT%T (T) encroaching on their cable TV subscribers, would not a tie up between the two be advantageous for both. Comcast would instantly be a player in the wireless game and Sprint would be able to offer wireless services bundled into Comcast's cable subscriptions. Comcast currently sports a $52 billion market cap and could do the deal. Indiviually, Sprint and Comcast cannot offer the breadth of services Verizon and AT&amp;T are, together, they would be a very formidable foe.<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8692512643554928029?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-71183093265750378742008-01-22T05:05:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.148-04:00Lost in all the wailing over Fed funds rate, a stimulus plan, the election, and bank rights off has been perhaps the most important news facing home owners with ARM's.<font class="fullpost"><br /><br />The LIBOR rate, the interest rate that most adjustable rate mortgages are tied to has fallen from a multi year high of near 6% in early 2007 to a level of 3.9%, the lowest since Sept. 2005.<br /><br />What this means is that the $385 billion in mortgages tied to it that will reset in 2008 will do so at far lower levels than homeowners were looking at less than a year ago. Of all the news we have been assaulted with in the past three weeks, this news is what really matters most.<br /><br />While Bernanke has been constantly criticized by stock investors this months, his actions at the Fed ought to be cheered by homeowners. The stabilizing of this market will help all our home values and in turn our stock portfolios.<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7118309326575037874?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-32000416863673350142008-01-21T20:27:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.148-04:00<font class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />Sprint Nextel (S)= Pali Research Sell » Neutral <br />Arch Chemicals (ARJ)= Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy<br />Advanced Micro (AMD)= AmTech Research Hold » Buy <br />Perini (PCR)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />BB&amp;T Corp (BBT)= Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform <br />Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)= Rodman &amp; Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform <br />LaserCard (LCRD)= Stanford Research Sell » Hold <br />Fluor (FLR)= Stanford Research Sell » Hold <br />KC Southern (KSU)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />Endo Pharm (ENDP)= Citigroup Sell » Hold <br />Sealed Air (SEE)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Potash (POT)= Scotia Capital Sector Perform » Sector Outperform <br />Seagate Tech (STX)= Needham &amp; Co Buy » Strong Buy $33<br />St. Mary Lnd/Expl (SM)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy <br />Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy <br />Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Staples (SPLS)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Research In Motion( RIMM)= Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform <br />Cerner (CERN)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy <br />Wrigley (WWY)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />priceline.com (PCLN)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Double Hull Tankers (DHT)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Brookfield Asset Mngmt (BAM)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />RPC Inc (RES)= Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold <br />PNC Bank (PNC)= Ferris Baker Watts Buy » Neutral <br />Security Capital Assurance (SCA)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold <br />MBIA Inc (MBI)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold <br />AMBAC Fincl (ABK)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold <br />Advanced Life Sciences (ADLS)= Lazard Capital Buy » Hold <br />AptarGroup (ATR)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Stanley Inc. (SXE)= Cowen &amp; Co Outperform » Neutral <br />Medco Health Solutions (MHS)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />Express Scripts (ESRX)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />MBIA Inc (MBI)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />AMBAC Fincl (ABK)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />Stryker (SYK)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral <br />Under Armour (UA)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Zymogenetics (ZGEN)= Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform <br />PrivateBancorp (PVTB )=Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform <br />Comerica (CMA)= Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform<br />AMBAC Fincl (ABK)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral <br />Security Capital Assurance (SCA)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral <br />MBIA Inc (MBI)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral <br />Royal Philips Electronics (PHG)= Lehman Brothers Overweight » Underweight<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3200041686367335014?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-24586907479135791022008-01-21T16:23:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.149-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Tuesday's Picks (markets closed Monday)<br /><br />None<br /><br />Friday's Results<br />Macke, Adami and Finerman all recommend buying if the market gaps significantly lower at the open in the morning.<br /><br />For example, if the Dow average .DJIA 12159.21 opens down 200 points that will be a sign of capitulation. Can't track this one.......<br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 4-3<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 3-5<br />Pete Najarian= 3-3<br />Karen Finerman= 3-3<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2458690747913579102?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-45750497962238899742008-01-21T07:16:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.149-04:00Goldman, Snipes, IRS, IRS <font class="fullpost"><br /><br />- What <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&amp;sid=amkLoop8pArk&amp;refer=home">made them different</a> when it came to mortages?<br /><br />- Just goes to show you, <a href="http://rss.cnn.com/%7Er/rss/money_topstories/%7E3/218497991/index.htm">brains and wealth</a> are not necessarily connected.<br /><br />- More <a href="http://rss.cnn.com/%7Er/rss/money_topstories/%7E3/218477139/index.htm">people are getting</a> audited<br /><br />- Especially <a href="http://www.wikio.com/business?rinfoid=41973635">if you are</a> a millionaire<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4575049796223889974?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-54135506603050260612008-01-20T12:45:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:39:20.228-04:00Anyone else catch the NFL network today?<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />All season the shows have been sponsored by Sears (SLHD), the store.<br /><br />Today, the pre-game show is being sponsored by "Craftsmen, available at Sears". The Craftsmen logo is all over everything..<br /><br />The commercials, once the "Sears Book" variety are now Kenmore commercials, "available at Sears".<br /><br />This would lead one the <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/lamperts-move-yes-its-about-brands.html">believe Friday's announcement</a> about breaking up Sears into a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) like holding company has been in the works for some time and Sears Holdings is farther ahead of this than many believe.<br /><br />Ad campaigns are not altered on a dime.<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Long Sears, None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5413550660305026061?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-22916849349754459262008-01-20T06:00:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.151-04:00After blogging <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/11/sprints-results-its-gphone-or-bust.html">about the "shortcomings"</a> of the <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/07/sprint-customer-service-still-sucks.html">customer experience being</a> a Sprint (S) subscriber, something really different happened. I had a great experience...<font class="fullpost"><br /><br />After a recent ice storm both my cell and internet reception was affected. Usually when this happens, I begin to cry because I know what is in store for me. A static filled call to a foreign land with someone who cannot speak or understand the language I speak and seems ill-equipped to handle the problem I have (or any problem that involves me explaining it in English).<br /><br />Imagine my surprise when I placed the call and the person who answered the phone had a southern accent. I was filled with a joy I had not experienced since the merger between Sprint and Nextel. The person on the phone was pleasant and helpful..<br /><br />After a transfer to another department and the angst ridden wait on hold as I pondered the astronomical odds of yet another rep that spoke my language, I began to leap for joy as the voice on the phone said as clear as day, "can I help you?".<br /><br />I explained my problem and they deduced it was a problem with the tower in my area and said they would send a crew to fix it. An hour later it was..<br /><br />New CEO Dan Hesse has said his first priority is <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/12/sprints-new-ceo-so-far-so-good.html">fixing the customer service issues</a> plaguing the company.... so far so good from where I sit, finally.<br /><br />With both Verizon (VZ) and AT&amp;T (T) still adding customers, this is step one in any turnaround for the company. Last quarter Sprint lost 683,000 "post-paid" subscribers which are the most valuable customers. They have long-term contracts and pay bills each month. This was about three times the 250,000 that the Street estimated they would lose. These losses are especially damaging because those customers probably signed on to one or two year contracts with AT&amp;T and Verizon Wireless and are gone for a while. <br /><br />While the stock got hammered Friday, was anyone really surprised at those results? Sprint has bee rolling downhill for over a year now. The good news at least for shareholders is that they at least seem to be fixing their largest problem..<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2291684934975445926?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-43756793151161885692008-01-19T14:06:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.151-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />BNC Bancorp-(BNCN)= 11.1% <br />Cintas Corp-(CTAS) =17.9% <br />First Busey Corp-(BUSE) = 11.1% <br />First Community Corp-(FCCO)= 14.3 %<br />Intel Corp-(INTC)= 13.3%<br />Schlumberger Ltd-(SLB)= 20.0% <br />Linear Technology-(LLTC) = 16.7% <br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4375679315116188569?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-41938281081150041752008-01-19T12:31:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:39:20.229-04:00Eddie Lampert's move at Sears Holdings (SHLD) on Friday is a big one in unlocking value at the retailer.<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />In November I stressed that <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/11/sears-holdings-its-about-brands-not.html">Sears was not so much of</a> a retailer story but a brand one. The general idea was that post and several others was that Lampert would eventually leverage the quality brands he has.<br /><br />The <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120072035599702709.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news">Wall St. Journal reported Saturday</a> that Lampert is doing just that. <br /><br />Said the Journal, "A Sears spokesman confirmed the moves late Friday, saying the new structure will provide operating businesses with "greater control, authority and autonomy."<br /><br />It continued, "The contemplated restructuring would create separate units to manage Sears's real-estate holdings and run brands such as Kenmore, Diehard and Craftsman. It isn't clear how the units would be divided or which unit would run the stores themselves.<br /><br />The structure would allow Mr. Lampert to spin off or close business units more easily, said a person knowledgeable about his thinking. "He warmed to the idea of a spin-off strategy," this person said. The company also is willing to be flexible about how each unit will be set up, based on the skills of its operating executive. One practical effect of that could be to reduce costs."<br /><br />He is essentially setting up Sears like Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). <br /><br />This is probably the single best thing Lampert could have done. Why? Let's say I am the newly minted head of the Kenmore line. What is my first move? Pick up the phone and call Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) and see who want to sell some of the best appliances out there. When I hang up, I tell them they can expect a call from the Craftsmen guy next. Will they license the brands to GE (GE) to expand sales even more?<br /><br />Will we see Diehard batteries in Wal-Mart's (WMT) or Targets's (TGT) automotive sections soon? How about AutoZone's (AZ)? <br /><br />With Wal-Mart consistently trying to upgrade it apparel options, could we see either Lands End, Joe Boxer, Covington, Structure or Canyon River Blues on the shelves? With Target looking for refreshed options after a very disappointing holiday season, might they take a stab at it? <br /><br />The main issue with Sears as it is set up now is that the closing of questionable locations now dramatically impacts sales. If the brands are being sold through other locations, closing and selling stores can have a more positive effect on the bottom line as the sales impact is not nearly as great but the expense reduction is the same.<br /><br />We know Target has been begging Lampert to sell them hundreds of locations. Could the newly separated real estate management arm rather than selling them become a landlord to Target? Rather than just closing a Kmart location, rent it to Target. In that respect, that division becomes a REIT to the holding company. With 3,500 locations under it, the options are incredible.<br /><br />The point is that if the main brands that account for the majority of the profits currently are licensed and sold through other outlets, the importance of the physical stores are diminished. It also means that Sears now has more options for the marginal stores it may be carrying now. Sears could keep the best and most profitable locations while disposing of the lesser ones through leases or outright sales and keep merchandise sales and profits going through other retailers. <br /><br />This is exciting..<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Long Sears, Long Wal-Mart, None in others <br /> <br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4193828108115004175?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-25735878491904194072008-01-19T06:56:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.153-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Ruby Tuesday Inc (RT)= $4,399,115<br />Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD)= $4,180,220<br />Antigenics Inc De (AGEN)= $ 3,912,969<br />Zhongpin Inc (HOGS)= $ 3,901,573<br />Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)= $ 2,060,639<br />Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG)= $1,830,000<br />Shoretel Inc (SHOR)= $ 1,278,979<br />American Capital Strategies Ltd (ACAS)= $1,275,289<br />Xtl Biopharmaceuticals Ltd (XTLB)= $ 1,262,070<br />Stein Mart Inc (SMRT)= $1,143,441<br />Iomega Corp (IOM)= $ 1,111,895<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2573587849190419407?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-60172681064395802362008-01-19T04:14:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.154-04:00A long weekend so a nice long list. Some really interesting article this week...<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Visit <a href="http://valueinvestingnews.com">Value Investing News</a> here. <br /><div id="node-2966" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46cdad5c-c30e-11dc-b617-0000779fd2ac.html">1. James Altucher : Manage your anger and spot opportunities</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.ft.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2966" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2966" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>It's easy to get angry at the markets. And the consequences of doing so can be just as painful. At present, the markets are down horribly on the year. I say "horribly" because the year has just started.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-2985" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/080116/1058_id.html?.v=1">2. Hedge Fund Guru Pabrai Endures Tough Q4 Amid Subprime Crisis</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via biz.yahoo.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2985" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2985" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Mohnish Pabrai, an increasingly well-known investment advisor in the mold of Warren Buffett, got hit hard in the fourth quarter of 2007 as the subprime mortgage crisis wrecked one investment and weighed heavily on another.</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2978" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/berkshire-hathaway-adds-to-burlington.html">3. Berkshire Adds To Burlington Northern Stake</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2978" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_2978" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>On Monday and Tuesday Berkshire added shares of the railraod</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /><br /></div><div id="node-2974" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.fwallstreet.com/blog/100.htm">4. Don't Ignore The Assets</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.fwallstreet.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2974" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2974" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>"There is a school of thought that says that the value of a business is entirely in its future cash flows and that all assets are tools that provide that cash flow. In essence, many people believe that assets and equity should be ignored entirely. Let's look at it from a private owner perspective and follow it up later in the week with an examination of Buffett's early partnership letters:"</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2973" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.fwallstreet.com/blog/101.htm">5. Workouts Work Out In Down Markets - Part 1</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.fwallstreet.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2973" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2973" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>"If you've read Mohnish Pabrai's The Dhandho Investor, you"ll likely recall a chapter entitled "Use Arbitrage!" If you"ve been following F Wall Street for a while, you"ll remember (and possibly have made money on) Use Arbitrage! The Tribune Company Example. Why do we say you should use arbitrage? In fact, what is arbitrage and is it a strategy for the faint of heart?"</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-2970" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/01/15/i-like-big-moats-and-i-cannot-lie.aspx">6. I Like Big Moats and I Cannot Lie</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.fool.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2970" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2970" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>A nice discussion of "economic moats" and four ways they are created. However, I don't agree that there are only four types of moats. The article missed at least one other type, toll bridges. I'm surprised Sellers didn't mention that one in his article. Are there any others types missing?</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-2939" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/01/14/Kmart-Sears-Merger">7. Kmart Sears Merger - Portfolio.com</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.portfolio.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2939" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2939" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Why Eddie Lampert's failing Sears-Kmart experiment could mean trouble for dealmakers everywhere.</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2934" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?sdig=1&amp;v=wvI3xZK34Tg">8. Bill Ackman on MBIA</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.youtube.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2934" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2934" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Ackman discusses why he continues to be short MBIA on Bloomberg TV.</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2922" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.noisefreeinvesting.com/blog/?p=153">9. Are you a lazy thinker?</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.noisefreeinvesting.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2922" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2922" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Few things make more of a difference in investing than thought process. Unlike most competitions, the primary battleground for investing is the mind. Investors must deal with an obstacle course of emotions, psychology, temperament, and other forces acting to overwhelm rational thought.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-2984" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&amp;amp;refer=columnist_lewis&amp;amp;sid=amkLoop8pArk">10. What Does Goldman Know That We Don't?</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.bloomberg.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2984" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2984" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Does Goldman Sachs really have a higher intelligence that kept it from falling into to the same subprime trap everyone else on Wall Street fell into? I found this to be a very interesting and well thought out article.</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /><br /></div><div id="node-2972" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.arohanvalue.com/2008/01/16/leucadia-national-bottom-fishing-in-the-credit-industry-ruins/">11. Leucadia National bottom fishing in the credit industry ruins</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.arohanvalue.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2972" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2972" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Appears that Leucadia National is acquiring about 10% of AmeriCredit, an automotive financing provider. Does this signal that the credit concerns in automotive credit sector are overblown?</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2968" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/financials-japanese-want-in.html">12. Financials: The Japanese Want In</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2968" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_2968" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Now the Japanese have $10 billion to invest in US banks..</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2956" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://online.barrons.com/article_print/SB120009586477785055.html">13. Barron's 2008 Roundtable - After the Deluge</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via online.barrons.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2956" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2956" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>DON'T LET THESE MOSTLY SMILING FACES fool you. We just as easily could have called the opening installment of the 2008 Roundtable "Before the Deluge"-that is, before the great unwinding of a quarter-century of excesses that our panelists, to a one, predict will set the investment tone for much of this year. Their forecasts for the U.S.</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2954" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.commodityonline.com/news/topstory/newsdetails.php?id=4842">14. Will new contrarianism benefit investors</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.commodityonline.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2954" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2954" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>John Neff told the world, “It's not always easy to do what's not popular, but that's where you make your money. Buy stocks that look bad to less careful investors and hang on until their real value is recognized.”</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-2942" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.nabloid.com/do-we-need-the-federal-reserve-it-has-failed-us/">15. Should We Abolish the Fed?</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.nabloid.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2942" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2942" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Why do we still have the Fed? It has failed us in its mandated goal to stop inflation. Why should a private corporation continue to control our interest rates and money supply? What is the Fed doing to our Dollar?</p><br /><!-- google_ad_section_end --></div><br /></div><div id="node-2933" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?sdig=1&amp;v=IdpoamnN49A">16. Bill Ackman on Target</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.youtube.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2933" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_2933" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Ackman discusses why he is still long Target on Bloomberg TV.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-3000" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5372968a-ba82-11da-980d-0000779e2340.html">17. Nassim Taleb : A focus on the exceptions that prove the rule</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via www.ft.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_3000" class="vote-up-inact"></span><span id="vote_down_3000" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Conventional studies of uncertainty, whether in statistics, economics, finance or social science, have largely stayed close to the so-called “bell curve”, a symmetrical graph that represents a probability distribution.</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-2969" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/ackman-increases-target-stake-more.html">18. Ackman Increases Target Stake and More Swaps</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2969" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_2969" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Bill Ackman sticks to his guns....</p><br /></div></div><div id="node-2967" class="node storylink clear-block"><h2 class="title"><a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/ackman-why-swaps-in-borders.html">19. Todd Sullivan's - ValuePlays: Ackman: Why the Swaps in Borders?</a></h2><br /><div class="vote-up-down-via">(via valueplays.blogspot.com)</div><div class="content"><div class="vote-up-down-widget"><span id="vote_up_2967" class="vote-up-act"></span><span id="vote_down_2967" class="vote-down-inact"></span></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --><p>Discussion on Ackman's use of swaps in building his position in Borders.</p></div></div><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-6017268106439580236?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-10613667218498038132008-01-18T23:09:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.154-04:00Pershing's Bill Ackman just can't get his hands on Borders (BGP) share fast enough.<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />In an after hours SEC filing Friday, Ackman acquired rights to another 1.064,163 share of Borders. This now gives him an economic interest in approximately 26% of outstanding shares.<br /><br />Transaction details:<br />1. The reporting person, for the account of Pershing Square, L.P. ("PSI"), Pershing Square II, L.P. (PSII), and Pershing Square International, Ltd. ("PSIL"), entered into cash-settled total return swaps with a broker-dealer counterparty for a commission equal to $0.03 per notional share subject to such swaps. The first swap (the "First Swap") was entered into on January 17, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSI is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.99 for each of the 438,723 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "First Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSI any positive price performance over $9.99 for each of the First Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />2. The second swap (the "Second Swap") was entered into on January 17, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSIL is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.99 for each of the 619,419 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Second Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSIL any positive price performance over $9.99 for each of the Second Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />3. The third swap (the "Third Swap") was entered into on January 17, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSII is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.99 for each of the 6,021 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Third Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSII any positive price performance over $9.99 for each of the Third Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap.<br /> <br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-1061366721849803813?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-60031097147550337022008-01-18T20:25:00.001-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.155-04:00Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)disclosed it added again to its Burlington Northern (BNI)stake in an SEC filing Friday.<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />In the filing Friday after market close, Berkshire disclosed it bought 1.2 million more shares of the railroad.<br /><br />Purchases:<br />1/16: 44,200 shares @ $76.55<br />1/17: 205,800 shares @ $77.83<br />1/18: 996,100 shares at $76.97<br /><br />This brings Berkshire total holding in the company to 63,775,118 shares<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):More admiration, None<br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-6003109714755033702?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-77801798690180026032008-01-18T19:07:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.156-04:00In an SEC filing moments ago Leucadia (LUK) increased its position in AmeriCredit (ACF)<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Leucadia purchased options that expire 3/14/08 on 1.25 million Americredit shares.<br /><br />The options have an exercise price of $9 a share. Leucadia now holds options on 2.25 million shares all exercisable at $9 a share.<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): Admiration for Leucadia, None<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7780179869018002603?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-32456796678893587832008-01-18T15:54:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.156-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />(YHOO) Yahoo! Inc= $20.59<br />(WFC ) Wells Fargo &amp; Company=$ 25.31<br />(WCC ) Wesco Intl Inc =$33.00<br />(WB ) Wachovia Corp =$ 30.73<br /> (UA ) Under Armour Inc =$27.39<br /> (TYC ) Tyco Intl Ltd Bermuda=$ 33.85<br /> (TWX ) Time Warner Inc =$15.46<br />(OFI ) Overhill Farms Inc =$2.32<br /> (OC ) Owens Corning New =$17.30<br /> (O ) Realty Income Corp =$21.31<br /> (NSC ) Norfolk Southern Corp =$ 44.05<br />(NR ) Newpark Resources, Inc =$4.16<br />(S) Sprint = $8.71<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3245679667889358783?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-54416181362507938172008-01-18T11:18:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.157-04:00Roger Lowenstein, who wrote one of the two best books on <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20/detail/0385484917/105-7863558-5870865">Buffett I have ever read</a> has a piece on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in The NY Times this weekend. It is a must read..<span class="fullpost"><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/magazine/20Ben-Bernanke-t.html?hp=&amp;pagewanted=all">Here is the story:<br /></a><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5441618136250793817?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-78142553081926338432008-01-18T10:45:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.158-04:00Richard McGuire, is one of five people responsible for managing about $6 billion for Pershing, is now on the Board of Directors at Borders (BGP).<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />If you <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/ackman-now-has-24-stake-in-borders.html">remember, Pershing recently</a> upped its stake to 24% and has a history or pushing for change in its investments.<br /><br />In a statement they parties said:<br /> "Mick brings substantial expertise, financial sophistication and fresh insights to the Borders Group Board," said Chief Executive Officer George Jones. "We are pleased to welcome him and look forward to benefiting from his involvement. His addition, and our recent election of Mike Archbold, strengthen the Borders Group Board, reflecting our continued determination to pursue the best interests of our stockholders."<br /><br />"I am optimistic about the future of Borders and look forward to working with the Board and the management team as the company executes its strategic turnaround plan," McGuire said. "The company has many near and long-term opportunities. The plan is a sound strategic roadmap and I'm pleased to be part of a process designed to deliver value for all shareholders over the long-term."<br /><br />I still cannot see the big interest Ackman has in Borders but I just cannot wait to see how this thing shakes out.. I am sure he has big plans.<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7814255308192633843?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-10076438541708589182008-01-18T08:58:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.158-04:00Huckabee, Detroit, Kids, Nukes <span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />- Political opinions aside, <a href="http://www.wired.com/politics/law/news/2008/01/hucks_army">the neat thing here</a> is the involvement and power of youth in the process.<br /><br />- One has to wonder where the US <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120044636632792965.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries">auto industry could be</a> in these folks decided to work together say 20 or 30 years ago..<br /><br />- How much <a href="http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/family/kids/tlkidscost.asp">does it cost</a> to raise them?<br /><br />- Nuclear <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080113/ap_on_sc/nuclear_world">energy is making</a> a comeback, thankfully..<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-1007643854170858918?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-5993150736553405242008-01-18T07:04:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.159-04:00Leucadia (LUK) which acquired almost 10% of AmeriCredit (ACF) increased its stake with cal options in an SEC filing Thursday night. (<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />Leucadia purchased 10,000 options, representing 1,000,000 more shares of AmeriCredit (ACF) on 1/15. The options have a $9 call price and Leucadia paid $390 for them.<br /><br />They expire on 3/14/08<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-599315073655340524?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-36233389192059952762008-01-18T05:20:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.160-04:00Things are shaping up nicely for a purchase real soon.<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Harley-Davidson (HOG) was downgraded to sell from hold by Citigroup (C) on Wednesday. Citi said that U.S. retail sales at the motorcycle maker may drop 10% to 12% in the current quarter. International sales also are showing early signs of moderating growth, though it said there are probably one or two quarters before it will materialize in the company's European retail sales or shipment numbers. <br /><br />I have <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/harley-davidson-is-killing-me.html">commented on my admiration</a> and desire to own shares in the world's #1 motorcycle maker in the world in the past. With shares trading at levels not seen since late 2000 and early 2001, the time is getting near.<br /><br />In October Harley forcasted FY 2007 EPS of $3.63 to $3.77 a share and said 2008 would see 4% to 7% growth, a 20 million share repurchase plan and increased the dividend 20%. Current earnings estimates are for $3.86 a share in 2008 or virtually flat growth. At that level shares will trade at 9.7 times earnings and yield 3%. <br /><br />Next Friday HOG reports and gives guidance for 2008. I am very comfortable owning shares at this level but am going to hold off just in case they drop a bomb next week . Now if they do and shares crater, I'll be buying. If they do not and shares rally, I will be a buyer and be out a few bucks appreciation. Right now, the markets is spooked and bad news gets far more downside action (ask Intel (INTC)) than good news does upside. <br /><br />Simply put, the risk is for greater losses than gains next week. So I sit. Content either way to wait and see what happens before jumping in. <br /><br /><br /> <br /><br />Disclosure: Long Citi, None in HOG yet...<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3623338919205995276?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-42000443266742283262008-01-18T04:26:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.160-04:00New Merrill Lynch (MER) CEO John Thain said something very interesting Thursday in an interview after the bank released earnings <span class="fullpost"><br /><br />"We had $15 billion of them (CDO's) on the books in September and now that has been written down to $4.4 billion. Essentially they are being valued on their interest only component". <a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/cnbc-video-thain-on-merrills-results/">See the interview here:</a><br /><br />This is stunning really. It also means that when the CDO market settles, the very same securities that have been eviscerated will see a surge in value. Thain also said that the CDO market was non existent in December and that recently they had sold a few of the securities.<br /><br />He gave no details on the transactions but the fact there is even some liquidity in that market is good news indeed.<br /><br />What has happened to the CDO markets is a bit like pricing all mortgage brokers for bankruptcy because one of them go. It is important to note that while defaults have risen, they are by no means above historical norms or in a danger area. Despite that, the entire universe of them have been hit. <br /><br />This type of thing seems to happen in real estate due to its prolonged cycles. When Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett first bought into Wells Fargo (WFC) in 1990, he did so in the midst of a California housing crisis. Warren determined that bank's value as reflected by its stock price was being unfairly tainted by the market. A "guilt by association" thing. All things housing we sold off. While many lenders at the time were suffering due to loans made, Buffett felt that while Wells would take a small hit (much smaller than anticipated), when housing recovered, it was well positioned to then capitalized. He called the classic over-reaction of the market and has since made a killing on the stock. <br /><br />What is happening today is very similar to that time frame, crisis's create opportunity....<br /> <br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position): None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4200044326674228326?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-70033719830096339312008-01-18T00:07:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.161-04:00<font class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />Occidental Petro (OXY)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />Magna (MGA)= RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform<br />Odyssey Healthcare (ODSY)= Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Comtech (COGO)= Needham &amp; Co Buy » Strong Buy <br />Hi-Tech Pharma (HITK)= FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy <br />NYMEX (NMX)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />Quiksilver (ZQK)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Tesoro (TSO)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />Stryker (SYK)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Boeing (BA)= Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Callaway Golf (ELY)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Ctrip.com (CTRP)= Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive <br />Melco PBL Entertainment (MPEL)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Western Union (WU)= Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform <br />TIBCO Software (TIBX)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE)= CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform <br />Millennium Pharm (MLNM)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />Alberto-Culver (ACV)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />eBay (EBAY)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform <br />Biogen Idec (BIIB)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />Precision Drilling (PDS)= BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform <br />TeleTech (TTEC)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform <br />Genomic Health (GHDX)= Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Intervest Bancshares Corp (IBCA)= Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold <br />Sunpower (SPWR)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral <br />Gerdau AmeriSteel (GNA)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Aggressive Buy » Buy <br />MicroStrategy (MSTR)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral <br />A.M. Castle (CAS)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold <br />Jones Soda (JSDA)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral <br />Wells Fargo (WFC)= Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform <br />Daimler AG (DAI)= Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />JP Morgan Chase (JPM)= Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform <br />deCODE genetics (DCGN)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight <br />Harley-Davidson (HOG)= Citigroup Hold » Sell <br />Intel (INTC)= Charter Equity Buy » Mkt Perform <br />Silver Wheaton (SLW)= CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Underperform <br />Adobe Systems (ADBE)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Epicor Software (EPIC)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />McAfee (MFE)= UBS Buy » Neutral<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7003371983009633931?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-50523529120129338122008-01-17T20:12:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.162-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Friday's Picks<br />Macke, Adami and Finerman all recommend buying if the market gaps significantly lower at the open in the morning.<br /><br />For example, if the Dow average .DJIA 12159.21 opens down 200 points that will be a sign of capitulation. Can't track this one.......<br /><br /><br />Thursday's Results<br />Jeff Macke says buy Pfizer (PFE) = $23.40 Close $22.98 LOSS<br /><br />Guy Adami likes Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)= $68.31 Close $67.83 LOSS<br /><br />Karen Finerman recommends shorting Lehman (LEH)= $58.06 Close $54.66 GAIN<br /><br />Pete Najarian thinks Tibco (TIBX) = $7.50 is a buy. Close $7.60 GAIN<br /><br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 4-3<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 3-5<br />Pete Najarian= 3-3<br />Karen Finerman= 3-3<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5052352912012933812?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-50559167863187211992008-01-17T16:06:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.162-04:00<span class="fullpost"> (YHOO) Yahoo! Inc =$21.20<br /> (XRX ) Xerox Corporation=$ 13.44<br /> (XRIT ) X-Rite Incorporated =$ 10.69<br />(WLK ) Westlake Chem Corp =$ 15.47<br />(WLB ) Westmoreland Coal Co =$10.72<br /> (VAL ) The Valspar Corporation =$18.77<br /> (TXI ) Texas Industries, Inc =$46.57<br /> (TWX) Time Warner Inc =$15.50<br /> (TTI ) TETRA Technologies Inc=$ 13.91<br /> (TTC ) The Toro Company =$43.12<br /> (SHW ) The Sherwin-Williams =$ 51.38<br /> (S ) Sprint Nextel Corporation =$11.66<br /> (PCR) Perini Corporation =$25.18<br /> (PBI ) Pitney Bowes Inc =$34.85<br /> (OC ) Owens Corning New=$ 17.64<br />(NYB) New York Cmnty Bancor=$ 15.25<br />(MYE )Myers Industries, Inc =$10.99<br />(MWV )Meadwestvaco Corp =$26.87<br />(MBI ) MBIA Inc =$9.01<br />(HOG )Harley-Davidson, Inc=$ 36.89<br />(HMX )Hartmarx Corporation =$2.51<br />(HIRE )Hireright Inc =$8.81<br /> (GENT ) Gentium S P A =$9.78<br /> (GE ) General Electric Company=$ 33.14<br /> (GDP) Goodrich Pete Corp =$18.62<br /> (DTV ) Directv Group Inc =$19.61<br /> (DOW ) The Dow Chemical Company =$34.80<br /> (DOV ) Dover Corporation =$35.85<br /> (DISH ) EchoStar Communicatio =$ 28.06<br /> (DIS ) Walt Disney Company =$28.74<br /> (DHT) Double Hull Tankers Inc =$9.44<br /><br /><br />Disclosure ("none" means no position):<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-5055916786318721199?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-78078342875490208082008-01-17T10:10:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.163-04:00He says the Fed has "no clue"? <span class="fullpost"><br /><br /><object width="425" height="373"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/NVeBzkVgaik&rel=1&border=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/NVeBzkVgaik&rel=1&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="373"></embed></object><br /><br />Disclosure: Found this on Lizdon's blog<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7807834287549020808?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-48897604007522932012008-01-17T09:46:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.163-04:00ACLU, The Fed, Economic Freedom, Wal-Mart & Sears<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />- I just do not even <a href="http://www.wikio.com/business?rinfoid=41703967">know how to comment</a> on this one. "People who have sex in public bathrooms have an expectation of privacy". You can't make this stuff up..<br /><br />- Dave Merkel <a href="http://alephblog.com/2008/01/16/score-one-success-for-the-federal-reserve/">makes a good</a> point.<br /><br />- We are now #5 in the world. Why is <a href="http://www.controlledgreed.com/2008/01/i-wish-this-was.html">this not being discussed</a>? Perhaps because those running are trying to lower this with more regulation?<br /><br />- Jeff Matthews <a href="http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2008/01/so-far-its-more-like-shutout.html">has a good post</a> on Sears and Wal-Mart..<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4889760400752293201?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-72644505068492838742008-01-17T05:21:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.164-04:00"We are going to bring back the Starbucks experience", Starbucks CEO, Howard Schultz. Really?<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />I thought they were going to emphasize the "superior ingredients" that go into their brew? I thought they were going for the "premium market" for coffee? I thought the mantra was that people would be willing to pay higher prices for all of the above?<br /><br />Why, then is Starbucks removing organic milks from its stores? According to the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120043442172092339.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace">Wall St. Journal</a>, "Drinks with organic milk account for less than 1% of Starbucks' beverage sales, said Michelle Gass, the company's senior vice president of global strategy. "Far and away, the No. 1 reason people are purchasing organic milk is because [it lacks] the growth hormone," she said.<br /><br />In 2006, sales of organic dairy products in the U.S. grew 25% to $2.67 billion, making it the second fastest-growing organic food category behind meat, according to the Organic Trade Association."<br /><br />Here is why this move is just wrong. If they really only sell 1% of their drinks that way, the move is not going to save much cash. It will, however, really piss off those folks who will only drink the stuff.<br /><br />Starbucks claims the move is in part to "simplify" the menu of drinks. With about 1,000 options, there had to be a far less potentially confrontational way to do it. With every retailer in the food spectrum rushing into the "organic" field, to pull out of it and gain very little financially just seems misguided.<br /><br />Schultz could have used this consumer option to differentiate Starbucks from McDonald's (MCD), now it simply appears he is desperately cutting costs to try to compete with them. <br /><br /><br />Disclosure: Long McDonalds<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7264450506849283874?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-36390032361900600902008-01-17T05:19:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.164-04:00The recent auctions by the Fed and Bank of England show that the liquidity squeeze banks were suffering in December is easing, dramatically. <span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />In December when the Fed held two auctions, both were oversubscribed and and ended with interest rate of 4.65% and 4.67%, above the Fed funds rate. When the Bank of England auctioned funds n December, the rate ended up being 5.95%, well over the 5.5% base rate at the time.<br /><br />This is in direct contrast to the most recent auctions at both institutions. The US Fed saw demand for the funds drop precipitously and the interest rate fell to 3.95%, 30 points below the target fed funds rate. In England, the recent auction went out at 5.28%, 22 points below the current rate.<br /><br />In short, banks are not clamoring and desperate for funds like they were in December. Part of this is due to recent foreign investment in the sector in Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), Merrill Lynch (MER) and others. It would also seem that banks are beginning to get a handle on what is what on their books as compared to December when people though it all might be bad. <br /><br />While admittedly this does not mean the pain is gone and things are rosy, it does mean that the downward spiral we have been in for financials is leveling out. It will most likely bottoming here and will sit for a time until there is clarification that things are looking more rosy.<br /><br />Disclosure: Long Citi, none in others<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3639003236190060090?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-72937421749729579832008-01-17T00:08:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.165-04:00<font class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />Donnelley &amp; Sons (RRD)= CL King Neutral » Strong Buy <br />Quidel (QDEL)= Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy <br />Sunpower (SPWR)= Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy <br />First Solar (FSLR)= Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy <br />Blue Nile (NILE)= AmTech Research Sell » Neutral<br />PNM Resources (PNM )= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight <br />VistaCare (VSTA)= Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold <br />Temple-Inland (TIN)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Sunpower (SPWR)= Wedbush Morgan Buy » Strong Buy <br />PNM Resources (PNM)= RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform <br />Penn Natl Gaming (PENN)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />Mattel (MAT)= Needham &amp; Co Hold » Strong Buy <br />Cbeyond Comms (CBEY)= Needham &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />New Oriental Education &amp; Technology (EDU)= Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy <br />Clorox (CLX)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />Silver Wheaton (SLW)= RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform <br />FormFactor (FORM)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />Vertex Pharm (VRTX)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy <br />Boston Scientific (BSX)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy <br />Supervalu (SVU)= Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral <br />FMC Corp (FMC)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy <br />Affiliated Computer (ACS)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />Kindred Healthcare (KND )= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight <br />Diageo plc (DEO )= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight <br />Estee Lauder (EL)= UBS Sell » Neutral <br />Tellabs TLAB (UBS)= Neutral » Buy <br />Roper Inds (ROP)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />ADC Telecom (ADCT)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />SMSC (SMSC)= Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold <br />PFF Bancorp (PFB)= B. Riley &amp; Co Neutral » Sell <br />Quiksilver (ZQK )= B. Riley &amp; Co Buy » Neutral<br />Boeing (BA )= AmTech Research Buy » Sell <br />Cabela's (CAB)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral <br />Owens-Illinois (OI)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold <br />Consolidated Comms Illinois (CNSL)= Citigroup Hold » Sell <br />Prudential Plc (PUK)= Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform <br />ING Group (ING)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform <br />Regal Entertainment (RGC)= Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold <br />CIBC (CM)= Citigroup Buy » Hold <br />LifeCore Biomed (LCBM)= JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Petro-Canada (PCZ)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral <br />Packeteer (PKTR)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy » Hold <br />F5 Networks (FFIV)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy » Hold <br />Deutsche Telekom (DT)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight <br />Vodafone PLC (VOD)= Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight <br />Aruba Networks (ARUN)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy » Hold <br />Autodesk (ADSK)= Jefferies &amp; Co Buy<br /><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7293742174972957983?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-89445475020841640102008-01-16T22:24:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.166-04:00Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) added to its Burlington Northern (BNI) holdings on Monday and Tuesday. <span class="fullpost"><br /><br />Through its National Indemnity subsidiary, Berkshire added 141,400 shares on 1/14 at $78.18 a share and 807,400 shares on 1/15 at $77.69 each.<br /><br />This brings Berkshires total holding in the railroad to 62,529,018 shares.<br /><br />Disclosure: None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8944547502084164010?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-89372571360557381482008-01-16T20:21:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.166-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Thursday's Picks<br />Jeff Macke says buy Pfizer (PFE) = $23.40<br /><br />Guy Adami likes Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)= $68.31<br /><br />Karen Finerman recommends shorting Lehman (LEH)= $58.06<br /><br />Pete Najarian thinks Tibco (TIBX) = $7.50 is a buy.<br /><br />Wednesday's Results<br /><br />None<br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 4-2<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 3-4<br />Pete Najarian= 2-3<br />Karen Finerman= 2-3<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8937257136055738148?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-5774233202243863492008-01-16T15:32:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.167-04:00<font class="fullpost"><br />(TPL) Texas Pacific Land Trust= $ 37.00<br /> (TOPS) Top Ships Inc =$2.54<br /> (TNK ) Teekay Tankers Ltd=$ 15.00<br /> (TNB ) Thomas &amp; Betts Corpor = $ 43.43<br /> (TM) Toyota Motor Corp =$99.56<br /> (SGMS) Scientific Games Corp=$ 19.61<br /> (SBLKW) Star Bulk Carriers Corp=$ 2.00<br /> (S ) Sprint Nextel Corporation =$11.89<br />(NCX) Nova Chemicals Corp =$26.87<br />(NCT ) Newcastle Invt Corp =$10.05<br />(MSO ) Martha Stewart Living =$ 5.54<br />(MSHL) Marshall Edwards Inc =$2.15<br />(MOT ) Motorola, Inc =$14.10<br /> (KUB) Kubota Corporation =$28.85<br /> (KNL ) Knoll Inc =$12.99<br /> (KMX ) CarMax, Inc =$16.81<br />(HBC ) HSBC Hldgs Plc =$74.75<br />(HAR ) Harman International =$ 39.63<br /> (FLEX ) Flextronics Intl Ltd =$10.16<br /> (FIGI ) Fortress Intl Group Inc =$4.20<br /> (C ) Citigroup, Inc =$26.23<br /> (BWLD) Buffalo Wild Wings Inc=$ 20.20<br /><br /><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-577423320224386349?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-37188539463874051142008-01-16T14:22:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.167-04:00The DeBeers Diamond Group is in the middle of settling a class action lawsuit. That means if you purchased diamond jewelry between January 1994 and March 2006, you could be in for some free cash.<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />The lawsuit claims that DeBeers monopolized the supply of diamonds, and fixed and controlled the price of diamonds. To settle the suit, DeBeers is paying consumers back $136 million.<br /><br />If you spent more than $160 on a piece of diamond jewelry between January 1 1994 and March 31 2006, you should file a claim. If you spent less than $160, the refund you could receive from DeBeers would be less than $10. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.9wsyr.com/content/news/real_deal/story.aspx?content_id=6767e810-256e-4df3-ad6e-d1b6697968a9">See Story at WSYR.com</a><br /><br /><a href="https://diamondsclassaction.com/pdfs/ConsumerClaimForm.pdf">To file a claim, click here:</a><br /><br /><a href="https://diamondsclassaction.com/secure/Instructions.aspx?AC=yes">To file a claim online, click here:</a><br /><br />Disclosure: Wife likes diamonds....<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3718853946387405114?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-86189162151100807702008-01-16T13:48:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.168-04:00It seems the Japanese are courting any US financial institution in need of funds.<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />While their timing is more than a bit off given recent investments in Citigroup (C) and Merrill Lynch (MER) by Eastern Investors, the news does bode well for the thesis that more and more investors are seeing value in the sector.<br /><br />Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU), Mitsui Sumitomo Financial Group (SMFJY) and Mizuho Financial (MFG) have pooled together $10 billion have declared they are "open to negotiation" with any struggling Wall Street bank in need of a cash infusion.<br /><br />This is in a way even more encouraging news that the recent rush of investment primarily by Middle Eastern investors. The reason is the historic extreme financial conservatism of the Japanese banking sector.<br /><br />Merrill Lynch did secure a $6.6 billion cash injection from a consortium that included Mizuho, together with the Kuwait Investment Authority and the Korean Investment Corporation. How conservative has the Japanese sector been? The deal represents the first time since 1989 that a Japanese financial house has taken a substantial stake American or European bank. <br /><br />Disclosure: Long Citi, None in others<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8618916215110080770?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-21444605001002724502008-01-16T12:54:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.168-04:00Blogger in court, Foodies, Bloggers and companies, Financials<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />- This is <a href="http://lawandmore.typepad.com/law_and_more/2008/01/ri-supremes-to.html">fascinating and bears</a> watching.<br /><br />- Now a site for <a href="http://www.wikio.com/business?rinfoid=41392540">folks who love food</a>. Think of it as "Facebook" for food.<br /><br />- Here is the problem. If companies <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080111/managing.html?.v=1">responded to bloggers when</a> they are contacted by them, a lot of this would be eliminated. Since they do not generally, they deal with us in the blogsphere....<br /><br />- Another <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/investing/10398482.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA">yes vote for the</a> financial sector..<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2144460500100272450?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-84606782525942433982008-01-16T09:03:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.169-04:00OK kids, I finally have a position in Apple (AAPL)<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />I sold 4 July 2008 $280 calls (APVGW) for $258 each this morning.<br /><br />Simply put, as long as the stock price of Apple is below $280, 70% higher than it is now on July 19th , I pocket the money. Should it go above, I will be out the difference between $280 and wherever it sits.<br /><br />Why?<br /><br />* With the rollouts of the iTouch and the iPhone, in the last twelve months shares of Apple are up 74%. There is nothing on the horizon product wise that will provide the boost the company received last year. There was no "one more thing" moment at MacWorld.<br />* The US economy is clearly slowing down. Citigroup's (C) and JPMorgan's (JPM) results the past two days illustrate a clear deterioration of consumer credit cards. That will lead to a contraction in consumer purchases.<br />* The latest results for Europe, the iPhone's recent launch area. Its economy is slowing also. Sales there have been moderate at best.<br />* Google's (GOOG) phone. The only folks probably more loyal to a products than Apple's are Google's<br />* Research in Motion's (RIMM) competing product. Until this point, Apple has had a product of one (touch screen), not anymore.<br />* Intel (INTC): Surprised with a disappointing quarter. May be a tech slowdown in the works. <br /><br />Now none of this means Apple will not post fantastic results on Jan. 22. It does mean that there are significant headwinds that did not exist last year and up until this point in 2008. Trading at over 40 times earnings after the recent 15% fall in the stock price, 2008 will prove to be much tougher than 2007.<br /><br />Now, Apple fanatics out there. I did not say Apple will lose money or see earnings decline so lets just pull out the paddles and zap ourselves into a calmer state. One would be hard pressed to think the stock will match the last 12 months performance in the next 6 though given the macro environment.<br /><br /> <br />Disclosure: I guess this makes me short Apple at $280, Long Citi, None in others<br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8460678252594243398?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-72890068698386783602008-01-16T07:21:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.169-04:00In an SEC Filing a few moments ago regarding Target (TGT)...<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />"This amendment to Schedule 13D has been filed by the Reporting Persons to reflect certain transactions including (1) the sale of stock-settled call options, (2) the purchase of shares of common stock and (3) the purchase of cash-settled total return swaps. As a consequence of the forgoing transactions and as reflected on this Schedule 13D amendment, as of January 15, 2008, the Reporting Persons are reporting a net increase in economic exposure from the previously reported position of 104,701,613 shares (12.6%) to the current position of 104,916,080 shares (12.63%)."<br /><br />Later in the filing:<br />"The Reporting Persons currently have contractual agreements with ten broker-dealer counterparties with regard to stock and cash settled call options and/or cash-settled total return swaps (the “Total Return Swaps”) that reference Common Stock of the Issuer. These Total Return Swaps constitute economic exposure to 2,500,000 shares of Common Stock in the aggregate, have reference prices ranging from $49.3256 to $51.2082 and expire on July 31, 2009.<br /><br />Under the terms of these Total Return Swaps (i) the applicable Pershing Square-related counterparty will be obligated to pay to the broker-dealer counterparty any negative price performance of the notional number of shares of Common Stock subject to the applicable Total Return Swap as of the expiration date of such Total Return Swap, plus interest, and (ii) the broker-dealer counterparty will be obligated to pay to the applicable Pershing Square-related counterparty any positive price performance of the notional number of shares of Common Stock subject to the applicable Total Return Swap as of the expiration date of such Total Return Swap. Any dividends received by the broker-dealer counterparty on such notional shares of Common Stock during the term of the Total Return Swaps will be paid to the applicable Pershing Square-related counterparty. All balances will be cash settled. These option and swap contracts do not give the Reporting Persons direct or indirect voting, investment or dispositive control over any securities of the Issuer and do not require the counterparties thereto to acquire, hold, vote or dispose of any securities of the Issuer. Accordingly, the Reporting Persons disclaim any beneficial ownership in securities that may be referenced in such contracts or that may be held from time to time by any counterparties to the contracts. The broker-dealer counterparties to the option contracts and swap contracts reflected on this 13D Amendment No. 2 include entities related to BNP Paribas Bank (BNP), Credit Suisse (CS), Citigroup (C), Deutsche Bank (DB), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Merrill Lynch (MER), Morgan Stanley (MS), UBS (UBS)and Suntrust Bank (STI)."<br /><br />Got to give it to the guy, he sure sticks to his guns...<br /><br />Disclosure: Long Citi and Goldman, None in others<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7289006869838678360?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-35647398068718105742008-01-16T06:09:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.170-04:00I save the rehash of Citigroup's (C) quarter. We expected it to be awful, and Citi delivered.<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />The dividend cut to $.32 a quarter for a still fat 4.5% yield. $18 billion in write-downs, a $9.8 billion loss ans $14 billion in change in preferred stock sold to investors. That finishes my Q4 review.<br /><br />So, where do investors go from here? Is there light at the end of the tunnel? YUP<br /><br />The terms of the convertible preferred issuance are $12.5 billion, a 7% dividend, a 20% conversion premium and are non-callable for seven years. The firm will also sell $2 billion in common stock to all shareholders. Time to be announced.International Businesses:<br /><br />Citi is booming here. International consumer cards net income more than doubled,up 68%. International growth drove an 85% increase in net income at the Private Bank and a 7% increase at Smith Barney.<br /><br />Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and Middle East consumer divisions all experienced high double digit net income growth. Latin America and Asian Markets & Banking divisions net income grew at mid double digit rates.<br /><br />Now, admittedly saying "except for those write-downs it would have been a great quarter" is more than a bit like saying "other than the assassination, how was the theater Mrs. Lincoln?" <br /><br />Much of the planned head count reductions are going to come from asset sales. Both of these things are exactly what need to be done. The dividend did not need to be cut and I think returning it will be a priority down the road.<br /><br />Part of the problem is that Pandit will not make anyone forget Sandy Weill or Jack Welch. Charisma is not in his DNA. That does not mean he cannot get the job done. Turning Citi is a job unlike any other. <br /><br />Wall St. wanted blood Tuesday and did not get it. Because of that, the stock is selling off. Personally, with an operation the size of Citi, coming out and saying "this is the finalized plan" a couple months after being on the job would have been irresponsible. It just is not possible to do a detailed job in that time frame. Had he done it that way, he would have been relying heavily on the opinion and advice of others, not a good idea at this point.<br /><br />Pandit needs to take decisive action and has Q1 to do it. He should not just fire away to make jittery investors happy. <br /><br />Disclosure: Long Citi<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3564739806871810574?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-8176203883932400822008-01-16T05:55:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.171-04:00I got an email from a reader that made a great point about Ackman's Borders (BGP) transactions that says a bit more about the current lending environment.<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />Here is the body of the email:<br /><br />"It is very possible that since banks have cut their traditional margin lending lines to hedge funds and this is a way to get around the issue.<br /><br />The only benefit of a total return swap is that it employs leverage, the same sort of leverage banks were providing hedge funds before the credit freeze.<br /><br />My best guess would be that Ackman has found a way to borrow money through the banks swap lines which allows him access to capital he was unable to tap through his regular margining of assets......"<br /><br />Dave (last name omitted for privacy)<br /> <br />Now, I have no idea what a guy like Ackman pays for a margin line, but I am sure his borrowing cost has gone up like everyone else's. For the swaps, he is paying $.03 cents per share commission and interest only on any "negative" performance in the shares. For this he is giving up taking profits (if there are any) and dividends until 2009 when the swaps are settled. <br /><br />Ackman now is able to build his position (although the swaps represent non-voting shares since he does not actually "own" them) without the cash outlay that would be required normally OR a high interest margin payment.<br /><br />It also says that while he now has a 24% "economic interest" in the company he may begin to push hard for an agenda.<br /><br />This really is a neat thing.... Agree or disagree with the guy, he is a bright one.. <br /><br />Disclosure: None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-817620388393240082?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-6538060726762891482008-01-16T05:52:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.171-04:00Interesting thoughts on Countrywide (CFC).<span class="fullpost"><br /><br /><object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/YBTkMA3VeJ8&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YBTkMA3VeJ8&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-653806072676289148?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-81927929358655593652008-01-16T00:22:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:39:20.230-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />American Commercial Lines (ACLI)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Delek US Holdings (DK)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Shaw Comms (SJR)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Oplink Comms (OPLK)= Needham &amp; Co Buy » Strong Buy <br />Puget Energy (PSD)= Soleil Sell » Hold <br />ADC Telecom (ADCT)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />FTD Group (FTD)= Roth Capital Sell » Hold <br />ValueClick (VCLK)= RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform <br />Werner Enterprises (WERN)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />Frontier Oil (FTO)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Northwest Airlines (NWA)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />Amdocs (DOX)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Affiliated Computer (ACS)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Knight Transportation (KNX)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />Heartland Express (HTLD)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />Con-way (CNW)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />Arkansas Best (ABFS)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform <br />Ameriprise Financial (AMP)= Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Kaydon (KDN)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy<br />RF Micro Device (RFMD)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy <br />Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />Lowe's (LOW)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />Home Depot (HD )= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />General Mills (GIS)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />Under Armour (UA)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />ArvinMeritor (ARM)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)= Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Buy <br />Steven Madden (SHOO)= Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold <br />Supertex (SUPX)= Lazard Capital Buy » Hold <br />Opnext (OPXT)= Needham &amp; Co Strong Buy » Buy <br />Valero Energy (VLO)= Caris &amp; Company Buy » Above Average<br />Alon USA Energy (ALJ)= Caris &amp; Company Buy » Above Average<br />Illumina (ILMN)= Caris &amp; Company Buy » Above Average <br />Trimas (TRS)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold <br />Telecom Italia (TI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform <br />Sunoco (SUN)= Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Automatic Data (ADP)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Paychex (PAYX)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Computer Sciences (CSC)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />BearingPoint (BE)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Sapient (SAPE)= UBS Buy » Neutral <br />Hewitt Associates (HEW)= UBS Neutral » Sell <br />Advance Auto (AAP)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral <br />Sears Hldg (SHLD)= Credit Suisse Outperform » UnderperforM<br />Cal Drive Intl (DVR)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral <br />Express Scripts (ESRX)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral <br />Teva Pharm (TEVA)= HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral <br />AmeriCredit (ACF)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform<br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-8192792935865559365?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-91754569764043046422008-01-15T19:51:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.172-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Wednesday's Picks<br /><br />None<br /><br />Tuesday's Results:<br />Jeff Macke says sell Netflix (NFLX) $22.77 Close $22.05 GAIN<br /><br />Guy Adami recommends buying EMC Corp (EMC) $16.80 Close $16.68 LOSS<br /><br />Karen Finerman prefers Corning (GLW) $23.25 Close $23.24 LOSS<br /><br />Pete Najarian likes Bunge (BG) $133.0 Close $127.21 LOSS<br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 4-2<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 3-4<br />Pete Najarian= 2-3<br />Karen Finerman= 2-3<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br /><br />Disclosure:<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-9175456976404304642?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-35306999023590293782008-01-15T14:41:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.173-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />(XRX) Xerox Corporation =$13.88<br />(XRIT ) X-Rite Incorporated = $10.89<br />(XLX ) Xilinx Inc = $19.15<br />(WTM ) White Mtns Ins Group Ltd= $ 474.03<br />(WSOB ) Watsco =$32.76<br />(WSM ) Williams-Sonoma Inc=$ 19.78<br />(VAL ) The Valspar Corporation =$19.15<br />(TMS ) Thomson =$11.13<br />(TM ) Toyota Motor Corp =$100.44<br />(SLAB) Silicon Laboratories Inc= $ 28.07<br />(SKX ) Skechers U S A Inc = $16.19<br />(SJM )Smucker J M Co = $46.02<br />(SHLD) Sears Hldgs Corp = $85.00<br />(SHG ) Shinhan Financial Gro = $94.00<br />(SHFL) Shuffle Master Inc = $8.37<br />(RSH ) Radioshack Corp = $14.14<br />(RL ) Polo Ralph Lauren Corp= $ 50.98<br />(RGS) Regis Corp = $23.12<br />(RGC ) Regal Entmt Group = $16.91<br />(RFMD) Rf Microdevices Inc = $3.61<br />(MOV ) Movado Group Inc =$22.02<br />(MOT ) Motorola, Inc =$14.32<br />(MAT ) Mattel, Inc = $16.60<br />(MAN ) Manpower Inc= $ 50.27<br />(KMX ) CarMax, Inc = $17.29<br />(KKD ) Krispy Kreme Doughnut = $ 2.35<br />(JWN ) Nordstrom Inc = $30.28<br />(HOTT ) Hot Topic Inc = $3.97<br />(HOG ) Harley-Davidson, Inc= $ 39.05<br />(EK ) Eastman Kodak Co. = $18.20<br />(EBAY) Ebay Inc = $28.05<br />(CSC ) Computer Sciences Corp =$ 39.40<br />(CRI ) Carter's, Inc. = $15.99<br />(CPWR ) Compuware Corp= $ 7.04<br />(CPS ) Choicepoint Inc = $32.55<br />(CAJ ) Canon Inc = $42.82<br />(CAG ) ConAgra Inc = $22.70<br />(CAB ) Cabela's, Inc. = $12.02<br />(BBI ) Blockbuster Inc = $2.72<br />(BAYN) Bay Natl Corp = $9.21<br />(BA ) Boeing Co. = $77.77<br /><br /><br /><br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3530699902359029378?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-77308149271378328982008-01-15T13:01:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.174-04:00Steve Job's announced today that Apple's (AAPL) iPhone has sold 4 million units in the 200 days since it went on sale. Not good enough.<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />The stated goal from Job's, who is famous for his low ball objective that he can then blow away was 10 million units by the end of 2008. Currently Apple has averaged 20,000 units a day. The shine comes off this number when you consider about 1,000,000 were sold the first 30 days (estimates vary). That leaves us at 17,600 a day since.<br /><br />In order for the "goal" to be accomplished, Apple must hit a daily average to 18,100. Questionable. One has to acknowledge the initial US launch euphoria will not be seen elsewhere and holiday season two will not approach #1. When you consider Europe's launch has been tempid at best and plans for China seem to have fallen through at this point. Canada is rumored to launch any day now but how many users will switch from the hometown Research in Motion for Apple? If the US does indeed head for a recession or dramatic slowing, how many folks will be willing to pay $399 for a phone? The argument is that high end users are buyers of the phone but if results at Tiffany's (TIF) and Coach (COH) are any indication, these folks are cutting back also.<br /><br />Now, does this mean the phone has been a "flop"? No. It does mean that a $599 phone will not dominate a category. Jobs seemed to have realized this when he lopped $200 off the price 90 days after the launch as sales stalled.<br /><br />As the details of the phone trickled out in May last year, 2 months before the phone hit the <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/05/doug-better-apple-aapl-begins-selling.html">stores I said the phone</a> would be a flop. I was wrong. I also said "cut the price to $299 and you may have something. A $599 phone will not gain mass acceptance no matter what it does, especially when people can still get it's functionality from their existing devices. Also, the exclusive deal with AT&amp;T was not a very bright idea".<br /><br />I would say right on both those accounts. I think Apple really missed the boat with the exclusive AT&amp;T (T) deal. With Research in Motion (RIMM) coming out with a competing product very soon that will be available on most carriers, I think Apple may have missed its chance to dominate the landscape. As things stand now, RIMM has 36% vs 19% to Apple of the "smart phone" market. Let us not forget Google's (GOOG) highly anticipated foray into the market later this year.<br /><br />The sad thing is that it is a self-inflicted move as Jobs's history of not playing nice with others may have come back to bite the company. He may have got the "best deal" from AT&amp;T at the expense of much bigger things. <br /><br />Disclosure: None<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7730814927137832898?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-46218877161672471452008-01-15T10:31:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.174-04:00Berkshire, Recession, Blogs, New Years Resolutions <span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />- Geoff Gannon has a nice post on the importance of the man at the top. A good company that produces cash but has management that <a href="http://www.gannononinvesting.com/2008/01/is_warren_buffetts_berkshire_h.html">cannot allocated it properly</a>, will disappoint investors.<br /><br />- If we say <a href="http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10498907">it enough, will it</a> happen?<br /><br />- The anniversary <a href="http://www.wikio.com/business?rinfoid=41549530">of the birth</a> of blogs..........<br /><br />- These <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2008/01/casual_fridays_more_new_years.php">always end up being</a> such a joke..<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-4621887716167247145?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-34041667358554185012008-01-15T06:40:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.175-04:00<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />As a results of yesterday's SEC filing, Ackman's Pershing Square reported<br />beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 10,597,880 (18.0%) shares of<br />Common Stock and total economic exposure on 14,339,180 (approximately 24.4%)<br />shares of Borders (BGP)<br /> <br />Disclosure:<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3404166735855418501?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-37029028310686993082008-01-15T06:29:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.176-04:00There was a very interesting omission in the coverage of Netflix's (NFLX) decision to allows most users to stream unlimited internet content. The omission? The word Blockbuster (BBI).<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />Under the most popular plan that charges $16.99 per month to rent up to three DVDs at a time, Netflix customers can currently watch as many as 17 hours of entertainment each month on the streaming service, dubbed "Watch Instantly." Now, all but the $4.99 a month plan subscribers will be able to stream as many movies and TV shows as they want from a library containing more than 6,000 titles. There will be no additional charge for the unlimited access.<br /><br />What word has replaced Blockbuster? Apple (AAPL). This is both very good news for NetFlix and very bad news for Blockbuster. Apple will be offering 24 hour downloads for $3.99.<br /><br />This will cause the fees Netflix pays to Hollywood and for bandwidth to jump obviously, but it should also mean fewer DVDs sent in the mail, which would lower some logistical costs and postage.<br /> <br />Blockbuster has been pushed to virtual oblivion as they are still toying with the download service and stuck trying to figure out how to get people to go to stores in conjunction with a download. Am I the only one who just does not get this? Isn't the very reason to do one so that you do not have to do the other?<br /><br />While, the competition is taking it to the next level now, Blockbuster is still in the starting blocks..<br /><br />Disclosure: None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3702902831068699308?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-1583066215677462752008-01-15T05:51:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.176-04:00Leveraging the success of its grocery sales, Wal-Mart (WMT) has an new small concept rolling out called "Marketside".<span class="fullpost"> <br /> <br />The new stores are about 20,000 sq ft, a 10th of the size of its Supercenters and unlike them, the planning process for the new Marketside stores does not require public consultation. This will pave the way for Wal-Mart to grow into cities and states where its Supercenter expansion has been slowed by union-backed political opposition. Huge.<br /><br />The new logo has green lettering with a fancy tomato, egg and grape topped by a Wal-Mart blue star. Wal-Mart also registered new trade names in recent months, such as City Thyme and Field & Vine, which one would think would be used for private-label fresh food offerings.<br /><br />This is a great move for Wal-Mart. Its scale will make it a low cost producer and this allows it to get into localities without the public rancor that seem to accompany them currently. It also seems to show that Wal-Mart is paying particular attention to the wants and tastes of potential customers it current does not serve. <br /><br />There is no reason Wal-Mart cannot run a low cost upscale grocer and be successful at it.<br /> <br />Disclosure: Long WMT<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-158306621567746275?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-74107420098352814072008-01-14T22:09:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.177-04:00Pershing's Bill Ackman entered into total return swaps in Borders (BGP) shares. The seven transactions were done between Jan. 10 and 14th. and the total numbers of shares represented is 1,542,900. <span class="fullpost"><br /><br />The details:<br /><br />1. The reporting person, for the account of Pershing Square, L.P. ("PSI"), Pershing Square II, L.P. (PSII), and Pershing Square International, Ltd. ("PSIL"), entered into cash-settled total return swaps with a broker-dealer counterparty for a commission equal to $0.03 per notional share subject to such swaps. The first swap (the "First Swap") was entered into on January 10, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSI is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.93 for each of the 256,600 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "First Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSI any positive price performance over $9.93 for each of the First Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />2. The second swap (the "Second Swap") was entered into on January 10, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSIL is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.93 for each of the 343,400 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Second Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSIL any positive price performance over $9.93 for each of the Second Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />3. The third swap (the "Third Swap") was entered into on January 11, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSI is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.29 for each of the 268,474 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Third Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSI any positive price performance over $9.29 for each of the Third Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />4. The fourth swap (the "Fourth Swap") was entered into on January 11, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSIL is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.29 for each of the 366,526 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Fourth Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSIL any positive price performance over $9.29 for each of the Fourth Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />5. The fifth swap (the "Fifth Swap") was entered into on January 14, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSI is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.36 for each of the 126,461 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Fifth Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSI any positive price performance over $9.36 for each of the Fifth Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />6. The sixth swap (the "Sixth Swap") was entered into on January 14, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSIL is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.36 for each of the 178,703 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Sixth Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSIL any positive price performance over $9.36 for each of the Sixth Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br />7. The seventh swap (the "Seventh Swap") was entered into on January 14, 2008 and expires on August 5, 2009. Under the terms of the swap (i) PSII is obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance under $9.36 for each of the 1,736 notional BGP common shares subject to the swap (the "Seventh Swap Reference Shares"), plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty is obligated to pay to PSII any positive price performance over $9.36 for each of the Seventh Swap Reference Shares, plus any dividends paid during the life of the swap. <br /> <br />Disclosure: Confused as to what he sees.....<br /><br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-7410742009835281407?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-68806458488558602612008-01-14T20:20:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.177-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />Tuesday's Picks<br />Here’s our Fast Money final trade. Our gang gives you tomorrow’s best trade, right now!<br /><br />Jeff Macke says sell Netflix (NFLX) $22.77<br /><br />Guy Adami recommends buying EMC Corp (EMC) $16.80<br /><br />Karen Finerman prefers Corning (GLW) $23.25 <br /><br />Pete Najarian likes Bunge (BG) $133.0 <br /><br />2008 Records:<br />Brian Schaeffer= 0-1<br />Carter Worth= 0-1<br />Jon Najarian= 3-1<br />Jeff Macke= 3-2<br />Tim Seymore= 2-1<br />Guy Adami= 3-3<br />Pete Najarian= 2-2<br />Karen Finerman= 2-2<br /><br />2007 Results (Since 6/21):<br />Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%<br />Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%<br />Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%<br />Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%<br /><br /><br />Disclosure:<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-6880645848855860261?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-67818991862788879092008-01-14T16:42:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.178-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />(WWW ) Wolverine World Wide, Inc $20.94<br />(WTM ) White Mtns Ins Group Ltd $481.00<br />(WOLF ) Great Wolf Resorts Inc $7.28<br /> (RWC ) Relm Wireless Corp $2.66<br /> (RVSN ) Radvision Ltd $10.33<br /> (RUBO ) Rubio's Restaurants, Inc. $6.76<br /> (RT ) Ruby Tuesday, Inc. $5.74<br /> (RNTA) Aaron Rents Inc $14.78<br /> (RL ) Polo Ralph Lauren Corp $52.90<br /> (RGS) Regis Corp $23.58<br /> (REDE) Redenvelope Inc $3.43<br /> (GFF ) Griffon Corporation $10.71<br /> (GET ) Gaylord Entmt Co New $30.99<br /> (GBE ) Grubb &amp; Ellis Company $3.85<br /> (GABC) German American Bancorp $11.74<br /> (G ) Genpact Limited $12.66<br /> (COH) Coach Inc $25.72<br /> (COGO) Comtech Group Inc $12.45<br /> (COCO ) Corinthian Colleges Inc $11.97<br /> (COA) Coachmen Industries, Inc $4.67<br /><br /><br />Disclosure:<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-6781899186278887909?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-20544261719331620722008-01-14T10:08:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.179-04:00The housing situation is really taking a chunk out of Sears. The good news? It won't last forever..<span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />Sears reported preliminary results Monday and as anticipated, the news was bad.<br /><br />The skinny:<br /><br />* For the year ending February 2, 2008, they expect net income to be between $744 million and $864 million, or between $5.13 and $5.96 a share vs $6.42 estimates<br />* Net income for the fourth quarter ending February 2, 2008 will be between $350 million and $470 million, or between $2.59 and $3.48 per fully diluted share.<br />* Expect to end the fiscal year with approximately $1 billion in cash and cash equivalents, excluding Sears Canada.<br />* Sears Domestic's comparable store sales declined by 2.8% during the nine-week period, while Kmart's comparable store sales declined by 4.2%. Total domestic comparable stores sales declined 3.5%<br />* During the ten weeks ended January 11, 2008, they repurchased 4.9 million common shares at a total cost of $513 million (or $105.46 per share) under the share repurchase program. As of January 11, 2008 they had remaining authorization to repurchase $223 million of common shares.<br /><br />Nothing in these results surprised me. Think about it. If retailers like Target (TGT) and JC Penny's (JCP) who also are experienced declining store traffic in recent quarters are having trouble selling $30 shirts or pants, ought not we expect Sears to have a bit more trouble selling a $1500 washer and dryer set? <br /><br />Here is what made me really happy. " The expected cash and cash equivalents balance indicated does not give effect to any share repurchase activity after January 11, 2008." Do the math. $1 billion in cash (excluding Sears Canada) and only $213 million in repurchases remaining. Sears could easily complete the purchase but is choosing not to in order to protect the balance sheet. They could have finished it and then used debt to buy more or finance operations <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/05/coffe-cows-corn-all-hurting-starbucks.html">like both Starbucks</a> (SBUX) and Home Depot (HD) <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/11/home-depot-conference-call-bye-bye.html">have done but</a> that, while making things look good short term, would have been a mistake long term.<br /><br />Bottom line, retail sucks right now (except Wal-Mart). There is no way to sugar coat it. That being said, if you accept that, you need to look toward the future. Even with the "end of the world" for Sears that the commentators were babbling about, look at the big picture. Lampert is thinking like an owner who is in this thing for the long haul, not a CEO who needs to make a number or risk losing his job next quarter.<br /><br />Now, while the lack of appliance sales really hurt now, when housing turns, that same pain becomes joy as the sales hit of the $1500 washer and dryer not being sold today becomes a gain of the same when it does. Here is where Lampert's discipline comes in. Sears will enter this period even stronger as the share count will be dramatically reduced, debt will STILL be irrelevant and this will cause EPS and cash to jump.<br /><br />It was another "bash Lampert" day on CNBC but, are shareholders at Macy's (M), JC Penny (JCP), Kohl's (KSS), Home Depot (HD) or Lowes (LOW) fairing any better? No they aren't. Now, of the aforementioned companies, <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2007/12/sears-vs-competition.html">who has the strongest</a> balance sheet? Sears...<br /><br />Here is another point. Remember earlier last year when all the talking heads and analysts were pushing daily for Sears to make a huge acquisition? Remember the Home Depot rumors? Any large purchase of that size would have included massive amounts of debt. How bad would that decision to go ahead have looked today? Any retailer who did such a deal would be hurting big time in the current environment. Rather than a decrease in earnings, we would most likely be taking about huge losses. Do not expect to hear them talking about this either...<br /><br />They were wrong then and this time next year will be proven wrong now..<br /> <br />Disclosure: Long SHLD, None in others<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2054426171933162072?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-66054806374199786562008-01-14T09:51:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.179-04:00Rove, EBAY, Borders, Never Oversleep Again<span class="fullpost"><br /><br />- Love him or hate him, the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119992615845679531.html">guy knows what</a> he is talking about..<br /><br />- A <a href="http://thestockmasters.com/ebay-paypal-01102008.html">good case for shares</a> in EBAY.<br /><br />- I got <a href="http://valueinvesting.com/value2/VIC/Guests/ViewThread.aspx?delay=45&id=3090&more=dtrue">a great answer</a> to my questions about Borders. This is a very good write-up.<br /><br />- This is the greatest idea idea <a href="http://www.thinkgeek.com/stuff/41/snuznluz.shtml">I have ever seen to cure</a> the chronic oversleeper in your life..<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-6605480637419978656?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-25890991361984714432008-01-14T06:42:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.180-04:00I have been getting a ton of emails asking what I think Citigroup<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c"> (C) </a>will post for earnings on the 15th. Truth be told, I have absolutely no idea (neither does anyone else by the way)and it really does not matter at this point. <span class="fullpost"> <br /><br />We know whatever is posted will suck, bad. That being said, what then do we as investor actually care about?<br /><br />Short List:<br />- The Dividend: We need clarity on it. It does not need to be cut and I do not want it cut. This subject needs to be pout to bed once and for all.<br /><br />- Write-Downs: $5 billion", $10 billion?, $20 billion? At this point who cares. what we want to hear is "here is the number and that is the end of this game." Basically "we have marked them down to almost zero, anything from here is up".<br /><br />- Asset Sales: What units and when? At this point certain sales are a foregone conclusion and when you have near $2.5 trillion in assets, sell some, who cares!<br /><br />- Reorganization: What departments, how and when. The mortgage department restructuring that will allow the company to develop uniform products, policies and practices for mortgage offerings as well as portfolio and capital objectives focused on reducing mortgage exposure, specifically in higher-risk segments was a no-brainer. There must be other such moves available.<br /><br />Essentially we want the guessing games over. They have been going on since late September now and it is time for Pandit to say "this is what is happening and what we are doing about it". The uncertainty has caused the stock to crater and Pandit could buy himself a whole lot of credibility by saying something to stop and reverse it.<br /><br />The longer the deafening silence continues, investors are bound to become increasingly frustrated. Pandit cannot afford to look like another academic like former CEO Chuck Prince was, he needs to be a leader and take charge of the situation, now.<br /> <br />Disclosure: Long Citi, <br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2589099136198471443?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-16742770026005212822008-01-14T05:43:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.180-04:00The TCW Group, formerly Circuit City's <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=cc">(CC)</a> largest institutional investor, slashed its 10.9% stake (reported in August)in the soon to be bankrupt retailer to .2% according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Thursday. <span class="fullpost"><br /><br />TCW cashed out losing approximately $128 million on its investment since last summer. They did not issue a comment regarding the sale probably because they, like I, are left wondering not only how CEO Schonoover still has a job, but how he managed to get multi-million dollar retention bonuses to the management that has ruined the compnay pass the board.<br /><br />When you consider Best Buy <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bby">(BBY)</a> only scratched out a 1.5% sales gain this holiday season which is low when you consider out thirst for electronic devices currently, one has to wonder how many days CC has left. Best Buy is clearly the class of the space and to call CC a "distant second" is really just giving it far too much credit.<br /><br />I have <a href="http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/01/schoonover-actually-did-it.html">blogged about CC a bit</a> in the past and will continue to do so until Schonoover is gone.<br /><br />Why? They should be making money!! They have both the foot traffic and online site traffic to compete yet don't. They have the locations and the PR to make money yet do not. The ONLY reason shareholders are suffering is due to Schonoover's incompetence. Period.. <br /><br />With the stock at these levels, a change at the top would turn it around immediately... until that happens... I'm here.. <br /> <br />Disclosure: None<br /><p style="margin-top:10px; margin-bottom:0; padding-bottom:0; text-align:center; line-height:0"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ValuePlays/~6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border:0" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"/></a></p><p style="margin-top:5px; padding-top:0; font-size:x-small; text-align:center"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">&uarr; Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-1674277002600521282?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-28746328135300996322008-01-13T17:45:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.181-04:00The consolidation and bulk investing in the sector has begun and is now accelerating.<font class="fullpost"><br /><br />So we have:<br />- Citigroup <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c">(C)</a> getting $7.5 billion from Abu Dhabi and most likely $14 billion more from Singapore's GIC - the Government of Singapore Investment Corp or Prince Alwaheed or China. Point is someone wants to give them billions.<br /><br />- Bank of America <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bac">(BAC)</a> buying Countrywide<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=cfc"> (CFC)</a><br /><br />- JP Morgan <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=jpm">(JPM)</a> possibly buying Washington Mutual<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=wm"> (WM)</a><br /><br />- Bears Sterns <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bsc">(BSC)</a> and CITIC exchanged stakes<br /><br />- Merrill Lynch <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mer">(MER)</a> received $5 billion from Singapore's Temasek and may be getting more soon.<br /><br />- News from Berkshire Hathaway <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=brk.a">(BRK)</a> is that they may partner or buy a bond insurer like MBIA <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mbi">(MBI)</a> or Ambac <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=abk">(ABK)</a><br /><br />So does this means the financials index <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=xlf">(XLF)</a>has nowhere to go but up? No, there may be a little more downside from here. It does mean that there will not be much more significant downside though. Currently <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&amp;chdd=1&amp;chds=1&amp;chdv=1&amp;chvs=maximized&amp;chdeh=0&amp;chfdeh=0&amp;chdet=1200085200000&amp;chddm=490314&amp;q=AMEX:XLF">trading at a 5 year low</a> the sector as a whole is vastly oversold. <br /><br /><br />Disclosure:Long Citi, None in others<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif"></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-2874632813530099632?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181567041076792103.post-36693980626578931662008-01-13T17:02:00.000-05:002009-08-28T23:30:57.181-04:00<span class="fullpost"><br />UPGRADES<br />Northrop Grumman (NOC)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />Rackable Systems (RACK)= Canaccord Adams Sell » Hold <br />Open Text (OTEX)= Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy <br />Finlay Enterprises (FNLY)= B. Riley &amp; Co Sell » Neutral <br />USANA (USNA)= Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy <br />Performance Food (PFGC)= UBS Sell » Neutral <br />Weatherford (WFT)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Baker Hughes (BHI)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />ENGlobal (ENG)= SMH Capital Sell » Buy <br />Hecla Mining (HL)= BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform <br />Verifone (PAY)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Global Payment (GPN)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Caterpillar (CAT)= Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy <br />REX Stores (RSC)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform <br />Idenix Pharma (IDIX)= Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive <br />Novatel Wireless (NVTL)= Cowen &amp; Co Neutral » Outperform <br />Equinix (EQIX)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />Dyax (DYAX)= Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive <br />Nokia (NOK)= RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform <br />Bankrate (RATE)= Roth Capital Hold » Buy <br />Imation (IMN)= Brean Murray Hold » Buy <br />InterNAP (INAP)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform <br />TeleTech (TTEC)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy <br />Dun &amp; Bradstreet (DNB)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />Expeditors Intl (EXPD)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />Verizon (VZ)= Davenport Neutral » Buy <br />Healthspring (HS)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Advanced Medical Optics (EYE)= Jefferies &amp; Co Hold » Buy <br />Continental Air (CAL)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform <br />Medical Properties Trust (MPW)= Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform <br />Seaspan (SSW)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform <br />Illumina (ILMN)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Nordic American Tanker (NAT)= UBS Sell » Neutral <br />Taubman Centers (TCO)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Honeywell (HON)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral <br />SPX Corp (SPW)= JP Morgan Underweight » Overweight <br />Acergy (ACGY)= UBS Neutral » Buy <br />Nuance Communications (NUAN)= Citigroup Hold » Buy <br />Dell (DELL)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight <br />Illumina (ILMN)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight <br />Illumina (ILMN)= GARP Research Neutral » Buy <br />Comstock Homebuilding (CHCI)= Robert W. Baird Underperform » Neutral <br />Tenneco (TEN)= Robert W. Baird Underperform » Neutral <br />American Axle (AXL)= Robert W. Baird Underperform » Neutral<br /><br />DOWNGRADES<br />Research In Motion (RIMM)= Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold <br />Amcomp (AMCP)= Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Universal Stainless/Alloy (USAP)= CL King Strong Buy » Neutral <br />Ralcorp Holdings (RAH)= Longbow Buy » Neutral <br />Logitech Intl SA (LOGI)= Avondale Partners Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Countrywide (CFC)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral <br />Jamba (JMBA)= Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold <br />Dress Barn (DBRN)= Stanford Research Buy » Hold <br />Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)= Sandler O'Neill Hold » Sell <br />West Marine (WMAR)= Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold <br />Brown &amp; Brown (BRO)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Select Comfort (SCSS)= William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />AnnTaylor (ANN)= UBS Buy » Neutral $38 » $22<br />Wright Express (WXS)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral <br />Juniper Networks (JNPR)= JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform <br />Atwood Oceanics (ATW)= Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral <br />Diamond Offshore (DO)= Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral <br />Juniper Networks (JNPR)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral <br />American Express (AXP)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform <br />Dyncorp Intl (DCP)= CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform<br />WW Grainger (GWW)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight <br />STMicroelectronics (STM)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral <br />Great Basin Gold (GBN)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold <br />DRDGOLD (DROOY)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold <br />Harmony Gold (HMY)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell <br />Anglogold (AU)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell <br />Gold Fields (GFI)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell <br />Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Underperform<br /><p style="margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt; text-align: center; line-height: 0pt;"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/ValuePlays/%7E6/2"><img alt="Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays" style="border: 0pt none ;" src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/ValuePlays.2.gif" /></a></p><p style="margin-top: 5px; padding-top: 0pt; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/headlineanimator/install?id=692099&amp;w=2" target="_blank" onclick="window.open(this.href, 'haHowto', 'width=520,height=600,toolbar=no,address=no,resizable=yes,scrollbars'); return false">↑ Grab this Headline Animator</a></p><br /><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/valpla-20">Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books</a><br /><br /></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><form action="http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" method="POST"> Enter your Email<br/><input maxlength="255" value="" name="EMAIL" size="30" type="text"/><br/> <input value="149816" name="FEEDID" type="hidden"/> <input value="Subscribe me!" type="submit"/> <br/><a href="http://www.feedblitz.com/f?previewfeed=149816">Preview</a> | Powered by <a href="http://www.feedblitz.com">FeedBlitz</a></form><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/181567041076792103-3669398062657893166?l=valueplays.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Todd Sullivanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08287307038296659422noreply@blogger.com