Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Apple (AAPL): Priced for Perfection

CNBC's Jim Cramer was interviewed yesterday on his TheStreet.com video. He had a take on the iPhone that struck me as familiar.

Now, he was talking about the Apple (AAPL) trade before the release of the iPhone. I am going to skip the "trade" part of his talk because that is not what I do. As for his analysis, he specualted that Apple's stock is priced for perfection of the phone meeting or esceeding the hype surrounding it and said that if the phone fails to meet the hype, the "stock gets crushed". The chance of the iPhone exceeding expectations was only 20% which meant there was an 80% change the phone meets or fails to meet the hype, either of which will not benefit the stock at it's current levels. He then speculated that people will not want to switch carriers to AT&T, which he claimed "is an inferior network" as easily and as fast as many people seem to beleive they will. He also said that many people have cell calling plans currently that "are not easily undone" and that will slow sales.

Now, where have we heard those arguments before?

One also has to take into account that in the NY Times reported yesterday "The anticipation, which is intense even by Jobsian standards, has led to some quiet, behind-the-scenes anxiety at Apple. Some Apple executives worry privately that expectations for the one-button phones may be too high and that first-generation buyers will end up disappointed."

I said before that Apple shares are "priced for perfection" and it would seem at least seem that Jim Cramer agrees.

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