Tuesday, September 11, 2007

iPhone Sales Behind Schedule

Apple (APPL) announced that it has sold 1 million iPhones. One problem, in order to sell the 10 million phones they want to by the end of 2008, they needed to make this announcement a month ago...

One million iPhones in 74 days works out to far less than 5 million iPhones per year. Apple sold 270,000 of them in the first two days it was on sale (way below the 500,000 estimates we were hearing at the time) as those who quite jobs to sleep outside for it gobbled them up. My calculator tells me it then took 72 more days to sell the other 730,000 phones. Another few clicks of my trusty calcuator tells me that the iPhone is currently on a 3.6 million unit annual rate, which would produce a total of 5.8 million by the end of 2008, woefully short of the 10,000,000 low ball "goal" Jobs set for the product.

Yes I know that they are selling into Europe and Asia next year but the iPhone already faces competition there and one has to anticipate the excitement for it overseas will not be near as great as it was here. I do not see another 270,000 two day total in either areas. That being said, it is now crystal clear as to the reason for the recent price drop now, even Apple is admitting through its actions they overpriced the phone and it just was not selling (ever heard that one before?)

Yes I also know that the holiday season is coming up and Apple will see a surge but I also realize they will see a sharp drop in the beginning of next year (it all levels out).

What will be interesting to watch now is how many people, given the events of the last week delay an iPhone purchase waiting for the "next generation" or another price drop, putting Apple further behind the pace it needs to be at.

Is $299 for the 8GB phone far away? We have gone from $599 to $399 in 2 and a half months. From day one I have thought this is where we would end up (FYI, the remaining 4GB phones can be had for $299 "while they last")..



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